Alert Reader Chris made mention of Model Spray™ in the comments. The spray on Felix (currently a Cat 3) isn't terribly interesting because there's general agreement:

But the next storm, which may or may not be Gabrielle depending on what develops where, is a true "spray:"

You can see that there's not much in the way of model agreement on that storm.

Posted by Carl at 1:36 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Felix has been upgraded to a Category 1, not to be confused with being updated to a cartoon cat. As an aside, I would be willing to bet that the Felix the Cat Wikipedia entry sees more traffic this month than the last three years combined.

Felix is heading for Aruba, which is a lovely tourist destination but hurricanes generally avoid it because of its southern location, breathtaking views, crystal clear ocean and white sand beaches. Aruban (Arubian? Arubanese?) residents are boarding up and an Anderson Cooper watch is in effect until after the holiday. Here's a fairly recent look at Felix:

There's a great view of Aruba via Google Maps. Here, you can see the giant Arubinian Hurricane Bowls that have been erected to contain the monster storms should one ever stray to the island. I think if you zoom in enough you can see Anderson Cooper waving.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center

Posted by Carl at 9:21 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Felix was born in the wee hours of the morning. He's expected to travel pretty much along the same path as Dean, as you can see from this model spread courtesy the AccuWeather.com Pro site:

Posted by Carl at 11:55 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

No, sadly that's not the name of the new dance that Carl is learning. We know this because Carl does not possess the dancing gene, not to be confused with Gene Gene the Dancing Machine who was that guy on the Gong Show. Where was I? The Yucatan, thanks.

Below you can see a historic track of Hurricane Dean courtesy AccuWeather.com, and a graphic showing the likely track of T.D. 6, which will probably become "Felix" sometime over the holiday weekend. The tracks look very similar; I'm sure Belize would like a break.

Posted by Carl at 9:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Via AccuWeather.com:

Elsewhere in the tropics, we are monitoring some disorganized showers and thunderstorms in a broad area that covers the Bahamas, Cuba and Hispaniola. This area of interest is a combination of a tropical wave along 77 west extending north to 30 north and a weak upper-level low. The weak upper-level low located across the northwestern Caribbean is going to prevent this system from becoming an organized tropical system by causing upper-level wind flow in the wrong direction and pockets of stronger wind shear. We have also noticed that surface pressures do not suggest any coherent surface feature, so this system will bring a more moist, unstable atmosphere over the Bahamas, Cuba and Florida during the next three days, leading to more shower and thunderstorm development. Another tropical wave along roughly 61 west, between 22 north and about 8 north, remains very disorganized as it moves west at about 6-8 degrees longitude per day.

Posted by Carl at 10:04 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That sounds like a great movie title or book title. It probably would be written by Tom Clancy, and the movie would star Morgan Freeman who may or may not be Canadian. In this case I'm actually going to refer to the canadian forecast model, which is commonly called the CMC. I think CMC stands for Canadian Meteorological Centre, which may explain all of this talk about Canadians.

In any event, the Canadian (the model, not Morgan Freeman) goes all nuts with a florida hurricane:

This image was cobbled together from the Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields thing at FSU, which you can find here. I set the animated GIF to run 5 times with a 5 second pause; you'll have to reload it if you want to view it, say, 6 times.

Based on my expert pixel analysis this would be headed straight for Ft. Lauderdale. While it's still early, consider these remarkable "coincidences:"

1. Ft. Lauderdale is known as the "Venice of America." Venice, as we all know, is part of an ancient civilization (Rome) that was destroyed by taxes, open-air buffets and hurricanes.

2. Ft. Lauderdale is an anagram of Dreadful Teal*, and teal is pretty close to blue, the color of hurricanes.

3. It's well known that Tom Clancy's younger brother October** lives in Ft. Lauderdale.

4. Florida, home to Ft. Lauderdale, just juts out there in the water between the very warm Gulf of Mexico and the very warm Atlantic Ocean. Many of the hurricanes that form every year in this region appear in either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean.

5. In order to prevent a panic, Florida Government Officials have said ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about this potential threat. Go ahead, ask them.

So if you live in Ft. Lauderdale what should you do? The Blog Hero would be happy to give you free advice but our legal team (Sven) has instead asked that this statement be issued:

The Blog Hero, Blog Hero Inc., Blog Hero Enterprises, employees and family members of Blog Hero are in no way responsible for any use, non-use, thoughtful pre-use or un-non-pre-use of any hurricane information, maps, graphics, data or datum presented on the Blog Hero blog or anywhere else on earth. Any information provided is for entertainment purposes only, but Blog Hero makes no guarantee, formal or informal, applied or air dried, that said non-informative entertainment will be entertaining. Please use or disuse all entertainment at your own risk. Blog Hero does not suggest boarding up your house with sheet metal torn off of old Navy battleships, nor does Blog Hero endorse fleeing the state of Florida for something more inland, say Idaho. Thank you.

Good luck out there!

*It's also an anagram of "Farted La Duel" but after much careful consideration and thought the Blog Hero and representatives thereof have decided not to publish this for fear of alienating members of the audience by writing the word "farted." It should be noted, however, that "Farted La Duel" has now be trademarked by Blog Hero, Inc., because it would make a really great book title. (Dreadful Teal has also be trademarked, and will be an unsuccessful garage band any day now.)

**One of Tom's famous books, The Hunt for Red October, involves the difficult family issues of adoption, line dancing and being sold into a Russian Slave Labor Ring.

Posted by Carl at 10:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

One of the computer models, the GFDL, has been targeting the U.S. coast pretty consistently. It's one of the more eastern tracks now, and a recent run (which you can generate for yourself here) has a pretty ugly hit on Louisiana, close to New Orleans, as a borderline category 4/5:

Of course this model is in disagreement with the model consensus, which is much more southern/western.

Posted by Carl at 2:52 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The UKMET and GFDL, not normally "model bedfellows" seem to be pointing to Houston.

AccuWeather's track is currently taking it south of that, for a hit on the south Texas border similar to Emily. We'll see - it's still early. But the GFDL track is scary, with a miss on Yucatan and a hit on the heart of Texas.

Posted by Carl at 9:23 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's the latest model guidance. The plots for Dean have been all over the place, from Mexico to New York. It'll be a few more days before there's a concrete track. Based on what little meteorology I suspect Dean hits somewhere in southern Texas. Of course, my meteorological credentials consist of sitting next to Henry...

Posted by Carl at 2:37 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Carl at 10:14 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well, sort of:

It looks to be a smaller storm than the Canadian had originally projected, but now a second model sees it. Stay tuned...

Link to eftcgpf

Posted by Carl at 3:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well, I have to say that the hurricane season so far has surprised me. I think I predicted something like three hundred hurricanes, so unless we get busy here soon I'm probably (probably) going to fall short.

I did a model sweep and didn't see anything too interesting. The Canadian model does have a pretty nice storm crashing into Cape Cod:

But you'll note that's on day 5, which is an eternity away for a computer model. In any event, that would be Monday, so if you're in Cape Cod you've got that long to panic, run to Lowe's, buy wood, nail it to your house, panic, and then go down to the beach and greet Anderson Cooper. Or, you could stay tuned to Jesse's blog, where he'll no doubt post the latest and greatest.

(Model shot courtesy FSU Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields here.) (Say THAT ten times fast.)

UPDATE: Here's JB's thoughts on the Canadian Model:
"The Canadian is not the dangerous racer on the track with its crazy tropical solutions. For the 5th run in a row, it entrains the tropical energy and drives what looks to be a hurricane into New England. For kicks and giggles, it will be on the big dog this morning, but it is certainly not the model du jour when it comes to this and is rapidly becoming the old GFS hurricane somewhere on every run model, something that will kill its longer term operational runs. Speed kills, but so does heat, when it comes to models if its not handled right"

Posted by Carl at 3:35 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC declared the mass of clouds and rain in the gulf Tropical Storm Barry (Manilow). The storm is located southwest of Disney World. As you can see from the following graphic, the storm is headed directly for the Copacabana:

There's no word yet on why Tropical Storm Barry (Manilow) is heading for the Copacabana. However, Blog Hero has it on good authority that music and passion are always the fashion at the Copa. This could explain the storm's movement.

Posted by Carl at 11:30 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Jesse has an interesting post here about the NHC/NOAA/CPC/JM hurricane predictions, and contends that they're basically predicting 10-20 storms this season. Give or take.

And SciGuy Eric Berger, who may or may not have gotten beaten up as a kid for his milk money, has a post here discussing the pre-season predictions. He lets Joe Bastardi have it, stating that Joe's prediction of named storms is "doom and death" and "Bastardi doesn't predict specific numbers." He adds, "His chief currency is fear."

This is interesting because it's almost completely wrong. First, Joe Bastardi (and AccuWeather.com team) have predicted actual numbers - you can read the press release here. The forecast is for 13-14 storms, 3+ being "major" (major meaning that Anderson Cooper will likely be drawn to the coast.)

Given the "Bastardi Number" is actually less than Gray's number, or the upper limit of the NOAA/NHC forecast, why is Bastardi tagged as the "doom and death" guy?

I'll give Mr. Berger the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to a lack of research. Apparently he took a look at the pre-season discussion, not the forecast which was issued later, and drew conclusions from that.

Finally, there's a telling comment in the comments section of the SciGuy's post. It goes like this:

My experience tells me this is exactly the opposite of how it works in the private sector. The AccuWeather team has a number of private clients (and a growing website) that receive our detailed hurricane forecasts. If you accept the "doom and death" fear-mongering position, AccuWeather wouldn't have these clients - the free market would punish any company providing content that was continuously wrong, bad and created for the purpose of inciting fear. Just the opposite is occurring - AccuWeather is growing because the hurricane information is very valuable to the clients AccuWeather serves. I've observed Joe at AccuWeather and he's passionate, works long, insane hours, and put everything into his forecasting - keeping what works and learning from any mistakes. And his clients understand that.

Disclaimer: The Blog Hero, who may or may not work at AccuWeather, would like to say that he has never met the SciGuy, Dr. Gray, Dr. Gray's team, most of NOAA and the NHC. Furthermore, the Blog Hero has never been to Houston, which I'm sure is a delightful city, and has never picked up a copy of the Houston Chronicle to read over a double half-caf decaffinated ginger latte expresso (with cream.) No body builders were harmed in the writing of this post. Thank you.

Posted by Carl at 12:15 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC is out with their predictions, and so I'm updating this previous entry. Here we go:

To review, the names for storms this season in the Atlantic are:
01 Andrea
02 Barry
03 Chantal
04 Dean
05 Erin
06 Felix
07 Gabrielle
08 Humberto
09 Ingrid
10 Jerry
11 Karen
12 Lorenzo
13 Melissa
14 Noel
15 Olga
16 Pablo
17 Rebekah
18 Sebastien
19 Tanya
20 Van
21 Wendy

Carl's Predictions

And finally, here's a poll I'd like everyone to consider taking. Not only will it tally up the yes/no/maybes, but it will plot them on a map. So at the end of the season we can see if they yes people were right, or the no people were right, or some of the yes people were right but all of the no people were wrong, or the Florida people should have packed up and moved to Idaho. You know who you are.

*Andrea notwithstanding since she was a sub tropical storm.

Posted by Carl at 2:29 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather.com has published their hurricane thoughts, including those of Chief Hurricane Guru Joe Bastardi. You can find the hurricane preview here. This graphic sums it up:

This is also the "Carl Wants to go to Disney World This Year" graphic. We've been talking about going this November, and I'll probably have to write a long explanation of why we would go then, but right now our funding is falling a little short. If the funding can somehow come through, then yes, look for 20 named storms this year and for Florida to get pummeled relentlessly, particularly in the late Nov. to early Dec. timeframe.

Posted by Carl at 10:19 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I thought I would run down the hurricane season predictions, since there seem to be a few out there. This will help with your pre-hurricane season stress and panicking. Having this knowledge in advance of any actual hurricanes arriving* will help with all sorts of planning, like how much bottled water to store in your basement, whether or not to get the orange Duck® tape or the silver Duck® tape, whether to brick up those pesky windows once and for all, and maybe even how much anti-anxiety medication you should budget for.

*NOAA's numbers are coming out next week, at which point I will likely update this chart.

To review, the names for storms this season in the Atlantic are:
01 Andrea
02 Barry
03 Chantal
04 Dean
05 Erin
06 Felix
07 Gabrielle
08 Humberto
09 Ingrid
10 Jerry
11 Karen
12 Lorenzo
13 Melissa
14 Noel
15 Olga
16 Pablo
17 Rebekah
18 Sebastien
19 Tanya
20 Van
21 Wendy

I thought I would take my stab at this hurricane prediction thing. If I'm wildly off target no one will remember except both of you reading this. But if my guess is accurate I'll be Official Seer for a Day.

Carl's Predictions

And finally, here's a poll I'd like everyone to consider taking. Not only will it tally up the yes/no/maybes, but it will plot them on a map. So at the end of the season we can see if they yes people were right, or the no people were right, or some of the yes people were right but all of the no people were wrong, or the Florida people should have packed up and moved to Idaho. You know who you are.

*Andrea notwithstanding since she was a sub tropical storm.

Posted by Carl at 12:51 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Update: Subtropical storm to form?

Update 2: From AccuWeather.com: Tropical Storm in Disguise?

Posted by Carl at 10:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The Waycross Fire is about 70% contained now, but the weather (see right) won't be helping the battle at all, at least not for the next few days. The fire has burned 82,000 acres, making it the largest in Georgia history. You can read more details here and see a few photos. The smoke from the fire has drifted east and south, and parts of Florida have had to deal with it (such as Brevard county and even Orlando.)

You can see the Red Flag Warnings via the severe map at AccuWeather.com. (A risqué Victoria's Secret Ad watch is also in effect.)

Posted by Carl at 9:35 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A while ago I had a post about my Nemesis' new video project. (Or is that nemesises?) At the time, a few Alert Readers wrote in to suggest that I make Henry bigger. Of course, the last thing I would ever want to do is make Henry bigger. But, as time wore on, my desire to give the fans what they want won out (well, okay, AccuWeather Flash Guru Steve made me do it) and we designed a new video player. We're still fine tuning it, but below is a sample:

Visit his blog for live video. So, there you go: new and improved Henry. Now, more Henry per package. An extra 125% Henry with every purchase. More Henry than you can shake (you get the idea).

Posted by Carl at 11:44 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Some outlets are referring to the coming northeast, late-April snow storm as "Historic." I've also heard the terms "50-year storm," "100-year storm," "devastating" and "icky." Terms I haven't heard used but wish they were include "ninja-like," "apocalyptic," and "Biblical." (Just to be clear, at this point we're talking about a snow event, no frogs or meteors or anything like that. One model does show locust, but it's a widely derided model and not terribly accurate.)

My nemesis still has an area of 6-25" for central Pennsylvania. But it has shifted north and east a little bit and looks like less of a State College event to me. AccuWeather.com has the following graphic now:

If you look real hard, and kind of squint your eyes, you can make out Centre County. And inside Centre County you'll see a dot for State College, and in that dot you can see me. I'm waving - wave back! Anyway, I think I'm on the line between 1-3" and 3-6".

Other outlets are saying rain and snow with no amounts for snowfall.

Based on all of this I've come to the careful, considered conclusion that no one really knows what's going to happen. If it weren't for Don Imus this storm probably would have been hyped a lot more. As it is, we'll have to go into the weekend in the sorry state of not only not being able to hear Imus anymore* but also having no idea how much bread and milk we really need. Ah well. Anyone traveling in the Satuday night - Monday morning timeframe in the northeast please take extra care and stay tuned to local weather forecasting.

*I really never watched or listened to him, so I don't have much of an opinion. I'm a firm believer in the free market system though, and if advertisers don't want to support the show, it seems perfectly reasonable for his boss to fire him. I really haven't thought through the larger issues of what can and can't be said on the airwaves, what is protected speech and what is not, etc. Feel free to leave a comment on this. When I think about what things a person should say I think of Proverbs 21:23 - "He who guards his mouth and his tongue keeps himself from calamity." Sounds like good advice to me!

Update 1: The NWS is sort of saying in a roundabout, maybe it will, maybe it won't sort of way that we could possibly get 6-12" if it doesn't rain.

Posted by Carl at 2:17 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's the latest graphic from AccuWeather.com. You'll note that I'm in the area that says "Big Snow."

I'm trying to figure out what this "Big Snow" is. I have several questions. For example, "How big is Big?" And...well, okay, that's mostly all of my questions.

Further bulletins as events warrant.

Update 1: Henry says "Big" means 6"-25"

Update 2: Here's what that channel about Weather is saying:

And here's what the NWS is saying, via Weather Underground (Not the radical left self-proclaimed communist group, the weather website)

So AccuWeather is hanging out there, it would appear.

Posted by Carl at 9:22 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Ugh.

There's a lot of buzz around the office today (the AccuWeather office) about a potential monster snow storm this weekend in the northeast. Of course, it's mid-April and these sorts of things are exciting for meteorologists and people who (have to) work with meteorologists, but for the ordinary, common folk - well, we just want to be able to open the windows and wear shorts already.

This past weekend those of us who live in State College (the home of AccuWeather and Penn State University) awoke Easter morning to fields of white. Several inches of snow had fallen, although the sidewalks and roads were spared. Easter should be a time of celebrating dandelions and cherry blossoms and dancing around bulbs that have started poking up through the formerly frozen ground. Not a time for wondering how much salt you have left in the garage, or if you can start the snowblower one more time without hurting yourself.

But here it is - a potential history-making snow storm. I say potential because I'm mostly a regular Joe and know how likely these things are to happen just as the models say. But I also say history-making because I (have to) work with a bunch of meteorologists. Here's one model snap:

Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather.com's Professional site said the following in his latest blog post:

Of course he said that in his own inimicable caps-lock-on way. But he's pretty passionate about the weather. AccuWeather.com has begun to weigh in and has the following graphic:

It will be interesting to watch the forecast unfold in the coming days. I'll try to post updates here; keep AccuWeather.com bookmarked as well. And please don't forget to panic Saturday and rush to the store to buy bread, milk and salt for the driveway one last time. That is, until our May snow storm.

Posted by Carl at 2:03 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

State College Staring Down The Barrel of a Straw
AccuWeather.com Predicts Ho-Hum Hurricane Season for Central Pennsylvania

(State College, PA - March 27, 2007) - AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi issued his early Spring hurricane forecast for central Pennsylvania, and for the thirty-fifth year in a row the hurricane outlook is grim for tropical weather fans.

"We're staring down the barrel of a straw again this year," Joe said, alluding to his forecast last year for the Northeast. When asked about that, Joe was quick to point out that his forecast for increased hurricane activity in the Northeast was for the next ten years, not just last year. He then put this author in a sleeper-hold and the next thing he knew he woke up at a Denny's over a plate of cold home fries**.

“While we don’t expect severe tropical activity in central Pennsylvania, you should never let your guard down,” said Chief Forecaster Ken Reeves. Reeves, in a Home Depot t-shirt, added “Everyone should have supplies on hand: plenty of plywood boards, nails, duct tape – maybe two rolls of duct tape, preferably the shiny silver kind. And some of those cool overalls with loops for tools.”

Communications Ninja Sichael Mylvie nodded as he listened. “While we’re merely staring down the barrel of a straw this year, it’s very possible that there’s a big, wet, spitball at the other end, and Mother Nature is just now inhaling. We can never be too prepared for the tropical season, wherever we live. In fact, preparation should start in February and shouldn’t end until March of the next year. And preparation begins with AccuWeather.com - the World’s Weather Authority tee em. No don’t write that down, I mean tee em as in trademark. No don’t write that down either. Stop it!”

To speak with a sardonic ex-blogger about this story, email schaad@accuweather.com.

*Well, okay, not really. The Blog Hero's legal team - also known as "Sven" - suggested that I mention that this is "parody" which M-W.com defines as "a literary or musical work in which the style of an author or work is closely imitated for comic effect or in ridicule." It's also defined as "a feeble or ridiculous imitation" which may be more accurate but somehow...I don't know, but that doesn't sound as impressive. Sven defines "parody" as a harmless, amusing work of blog writing that may nor may not be accurate but likely is a protected form of writing that will not get the author sued into oblivion.

This was originally written for a special page on AccuWeather.com but was subsequently eaten by a Dingo.

For the REAL AccuWeather.com Hurricane Outlook, go here. (Especially if you live in the Gulf.)

**They weren't very good by the time I woke up.

Posted by Carl at 11:00 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather.com Unveils New Hurricane Names*
AccuWeather.com Taps into 80s Revival

(State College, PA - March 27, 2007) – AccuWeather.com has announced that they have created their own tropical storm name list which will, for the first time, compete with the National Hurricane Center’s list.

“The public appreciates timely, accurate weather information – but it’s clear in light of the recent Anna Nicole Smith situation that the public also responds to entertainment news,” AccuWeather.com President and Founder Dr. Moel Jyers said. “We’ve conducted hundreds of surveys and one thing jumped out at us immediately – Communications Ninja Sichael Mylvie.”

Communications Ninja Sichael Mylvie then jumped out from behind a stack of forecasters,** survey results in hand.

“Dr. Jyers – it’s conclusive! The eighties tested the highest in name recognition, and as a result we’ve created a new list of names based on 1980s American Television Shows,” Mylvie said.

The list, which actually includes names for every storm possibility from A to Z, draws inspiration from classics such as 21 Jump Street, Alf, Battle of the Network Stars, Father Murphy, The Love Boat, Major Dad and more.

“People will be buzzing around the water coolers in ways they haven’t since J.R. was shot, when AccuWeather.com forecasts the landfall of Hurricane Gene Gene the Dancing Machine,” Jyers said. “Not only will people be discussing the approaching storm, and where they can buy overalls and duct tape, but they’ll be fondly reminiscing about that kooky stagehand from the Gong Show.”

The entire A-Z tropical storm name list for 2007 will be unveiled June 1. An initial public release listed the following storm names: “G” - Gene Gene the Dancing Machine, “H” - Higgins, “M” - Manimal.

To speak with a sardonic ex-blogger about this story, email schaad@accuweather.com.

*Well, okay, not really. The Blog Hero's legal team - also known as "Sven" - suggested that I mention that this is "parody" which M-W.com defines as "a literary or musical work in which the style of an author or work is closely imitated for comic effect or in ridicule." It's also defined as "a feeble or ridiculous imitation" which may be more accurate but somehow...I don't know, but that doesn't sound as impressive. Sven defines "parody" as a harmless, amusing work of blog writing that may nor may not be accurate but likely is a protected form of writing that will not get the author sued into oblivion.

This was originally written for a special page on AccuWeather.com but was subsequently eaten by a ravenous Dingo.

**Forecasters often pile up so quickly they have to be stacked so there's a clear path to walk around the Operations Room.

Posted by Carl at 2:30 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

There's a new staff member at AccuWeather - and unfortunately he sits right behind me. He's a Dingo, and he's perpetually hungry. In homage to that classic Seinfeld skit, the AccuWeather Dingo will probably be showing up in all sorts of places.

Here's one reported sighting - the Dingo apparently ate one of Kate Bilo's Confessions of a Weather Girl* videos. You can see him below in the confessional, with his trusty shiny dinner bowl. If you actually play the whole video and wait until the end there's a little something that happens. Of course, I want all of you to know I am in no way responsible for the Dingo or his eating habits and yes, if I stop blogging again it's probably because the Dingo got me.

*The Blog Hero wishes to reinforce that he had nothing to do with any Confessions of a Weather Girl videos disappearing, and that if any such videos disappeared it was completely an act of nature and unforeseeable and this is just a way of plugging that hole, OR it was entirely the Dingo's fault. Dingoes are wily and notorious pranksters and should never be petted unless they're, you know, plushie imitations and only then with the utmost care.

Posted by Carl at 11:31 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

It may be the Year of the Spite Snow, if this AccuWeather.com forecast proves to be correct:

AccuWeather.com Professional Guru Joe Bastardi is also predicting an April cool-down for the east. I suppose we'll see. It may be that Alert Snow-Repeller Tammy has let her guard down, resulting in these late-season forays* by winter.

*Blog Hero cool word of the day! Foray: to ravage in search of spoils (Thanks M-W.com!)

Posted by Carl at 9:32 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Alert Reader and soon-to-be Former Cashier Tammy recently noted, during our brief warm surge, that Winter was gone and dead and wasn't that wonderful?* Because, as we know, Alert Reader Tammy dislikes the snow, particularly if she has to drive in it.

This Friday (well, that would be tomorrow) Alert Reader Tammy is scheduled to work her last shift at Target®. However Winter may have another idea, as I mysteriously alluded to her earlier in the week when I warned that a person should never insult Winter. Because, usually, when you do that Winter takes it personally. I know this because I insulted Winter one year, and Winter came out of no where (actually from behind my neighbor's tool shed) and ran up and plowed right into me, knocking me down on the pavement in a most abrupt manner. I was hit so hard I was sort of stunned, and could only kind of wiggle my libs, there on the pavement, on my back, unable to get up. Winter then took off down the street and eventually ran into some guy's shrubs and hid there for many months.

So now it appears that Winter, feeling slighted and insulted by Alert Reader Tammy's prediction of demise, is striking back just in time for her last scheduled shift. Here's the latest thinking from AccuWeather.com:

For those of you who are not meteorologically minded, "Significant Snow" is a code phrase for 4-18". So don't pack up that snow blower yet. We may have one more storm to deal with. ("Heavy Snow" means 18-400".)

*In all fairness the blog wishes to point out that this is a loose paraphrase of what Alert Reader Tammy actually said, which I quote here in painful detail except that I forget most of it. But if I was Winter I would definitely be miffed, at a minimum.

Posted by Carl at 1:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

As I mentioned previously, there was a good chance we were going to get a Spite Snow today. It turns out that we did - it snowed maybe 4", but as of this writing a majority of it has melted. If you remember, one of the characteristics of a Spite Snow is a snow that falls and then melts before you have a chance to enjoy it. That usually takes a day or two, but today it appears to have taken only a few hours.

Based on the long range forecast it looks like the snow is done for the season. Truly an ugly, forgettable, anti-winter season. I suppose there's always next winter...

Charlie Brown, I got a rock.

Posted by Carl at 3:15 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Spite Snow: Mostly a Noun. Usually the last snow of the winter season. Total accumulations from a Spite Snow never exceed 4". Spite Snows are often accompanied by extreme cold temperatures, or high winds and wind chills, or both. A Spite Snow will be useless for playing in because it will either be as dry as sawdust from the extreme cold temperatures, or it will be gone in two days by a freak spring warmup that see the temperature raise 40 degrees in 20 hours and an inch of rain fall. Spite Snows are often cited as the cause of irrational behavior in people who love snow but have experienced a far-below-normal snowfall for the season. This irrational behavior can include writing nasty letters to meteorologists who kept predicting snow but never seemed to get it right; spraying graffiti on snow blowers, and mailing chocolate chip cookies to your favorite Blog Hero.

I bring this up because it appears that our Spite Snow is coming:

We appear to be right on the 3-6" edge. This would suggest to me that we'll get less than 3", even though the AccuWeather.com site is calling for 4.2". Based on its timing I would expect school to be cancelled Wednesday morning* although my children, home schooled as they be, will have their regularly scheduled grumbling-whining-moaning learning experience.

*The Blog Hero wishes to state in an emphatic and completely legally responsible way that he does not inform the school district in any way, is not even here and now providing any information to the school district, and will not be responsible for the crushing of the spirits of little boys and girls who want one more day off, even if it will be bone-chilling cold and snow like unto sawdust. Yea, verily - the disclaimer hath ended.

Posted by Carl at 11:32 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Last seen wandering the AccuWeather Parking Lot in a blizzard-induced fog:*

*Note: This video will likely update, but as of Tuesday it was a video of JB wandering the AccuWeather Parking Lot in a blizzard-induced fog.

Posted by Carl at 2:07 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

First, I want to officially be the Last Person on Earth to let you know that upstate New York got four billion inches of snow, and it's going to keep snowing there indefinitely. The final snowfall total will be between five and eight billion inches. There are mass reports of people losing their snow blowers in the snow, and those that have snow blowers apparently take them outside only to watch them choke and die. Below is a chart to illustrate the snow levels for those in the audience who are visual learners:

So, I hope that clears that up.*

Anyway, the actual subject of this post is not the snow in upstate New York, although sure they're gloating about it and, well, good for them. The subject of this post is also not about pulling a pan of brownies out of the oven without an oven mitt. Although, since you asked, I'm going to take this opportunity to rant about the state of adhesive bandage packaging. (You'll note I did not say "Band-Aid®" packaging, as I don't want to tromp all over their trademark.)

The state of adhesive bandage packaging is very grim, not unlike the situation for mail delivery personnel on Ganymede in upstate New York. Sure, the packages look great when you buy them at the store. And they fit nicely on your shelf/in your medicine cabinet when you get them home. But when you've just grabbed a hot pan of brownies in the oven without an oven mitt, the boxes are impossible to open. So, sure, you rip them apart with your one good hand and your teeth, only to watch adhesive bandages fly everywhere. And when you've finally picked one up and tried to open it? Yes, exactly: it's like mud wrestling with an angry, sleep-deprived, humorless African Porcupine.**

But this post isn't really about humorless African Porcupines. It's about the coming snow storm. Certain meteorologists at AccuWeather, who may or may not own snow blowers and will rename maimless***, are calling for a big northeast storm which will dump many inches of snow on State College. This is a great week to predict such a thing, as Alert Automotive Operator Tammy, who may or may not be my wife, has much driving to do. However, on the other hand (the one without adhesive bandages,) this is a horrible week to predict such a thing because we're in State College, Pennsylvania - not upstate New York.

Just in case, though, I've brought the giraffe indoors.

*Bonus points to anyone who actually looked up the diameter of Ganymede and converted it to feet just to check my math.

**Of course, this describes much of life.

***I actually meant to type "remain nameless" but this is how it came out and I liked it so much I just kept it.

Posted by Carl at 10:57 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well... "Not so much"

At left is the prediction yesterday from AccuWeather.com, at right is the current (Wednesday) predicition. By the time it gets here I predict we may see a grass-covering 1", if we're "lucky."

Posted by Carl at 2:11 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

First, the latest forecast. (No, really, I'm not bitter.)

And here's a recent radar image sent in by Alert Reader and Radar Watcher Mark:

This radar shows the "State College Effect" - as it's called in the office. It's also referred to as the "Weather Shield" because the reason weather does this in central Pennsylvania is that we're ground zero for the testing of a state-of-the-art high-frequency weather repelling device. The device is fueled by coniferous trees, slate, beer and college students - so State College was an obvious choice.

In all fairness to the weather, this past week we've gotten some snow. Our sidewalk was covered three different days. Not the lawn, mind you - just the sidewalk and driveway. This covering of the sidewalk to at least .3" triggered the business-starved snow removal people that I contract with, and I was awoken the other morning by the high-pitched whine of something mechanical. I knew that someone was outside, actually removing my .3" of snow for the same fee I would (will?) pay if it snows two feet. Although my blood began to boil it still wasn't enough to get me out of bed because I asked myself "Do you really want to start an argument this early in the morning?" Fortunately good sense won out, and I'll start an argument some other time when I'm well-rested and capable of witty comebacks like, "Well, fine then! I won't pay!" Okay, the comebacks need a little work, I'll still feeling under the weather.

Speaking of under the weather, my nemesis is out of the office for a few days. He and Jesse were packed up and shipped out to Wichita to visit our branch office for a big Weather Summit. I could tell you what it was about but then... you know. You have to feel for Henry; he's been calling for the big Northeast Snow Storm for quite some time now but it just won't cooperate. I hear he has a snowblower, but that's just crazy talk.

Posted by Carl at 9:39 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's a funny AccuWeather.com Graphic:

This is funny because you have this map of the United States, with this ginormous monster storm which starts with snow in Arizona (Arizona! Just let that sink in for a second) and goes all the way across the country to the east coast, but when it hits Pennsylvania it fizzles out. In fact, the graphics folks did a great job with this image, showing the Pennsylvania Fizzling Effect beautifully.

Sigh.

For those of you actually in the path of the storm, take care, check AccuWeather.com early and often and make sure your stockpiles of bread and milk are up to snuff. Get some ice melt too; I've read that areas of the midwest hit last week ran out in many places. Oh, and take lots of pictures for your friends in Pennsylvania who have to experience winter vicariously through Flickr this year.

Posted by Carl at 10:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Joe Bastardi's column on AccuWeather.com Professional today has this chilling (sorry) warning:

"Two major winter storms from Texas to mid atlantic and New England in period Jan 20-27. Cold continues to deepen nationwide, extreme shot growing more likely week of Jan 30."

You can subscribe to Pro here. Has Alert Reader Tammy's (snow) luck finally run out, or is Carl looking at another bag full of rocks? Only time will tell...

Posted by Carl at 10:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That ka-ching sound you hear is the price of oil rising, no doubt.

Posted by Carl at 1:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather.com now offers video that you can embed right in your site. For example:

Here's the video for State College. You'll note that the presenter (Melissa, at least when I posted this - it will always pull the most up-to-date forecast) does NOT mention snow at all. Not a bit. Nope.

If you'd like video on your website, take a look here at the AccuWeather.com NetWeather site.

Posted by Carl at 2:42 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather.com is tracking a possible eastern snow storm for Christmas Day/Tuesday. I seem to be suspiciously near the rain/rock line:

Further bulletins as events warrant. Check out Hypemaster M (as in Margusity) as he follows the storm.

Posted by Carl at 9:48 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

In Idaho...

Sigh.

Posted by Carl at 3:11 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

For Texas. According to AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi. I think my head will explode. (No offense to the Alert Texans in the audience.) Sigh.

Posted by Carl at 9:19 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Alert Reader Carol may have another shot tonight. This from Space.com:

"We're looking for very strong, severe geomagnetic storming" to begin probably around mid-day Thursday, Joe Kunches, Lead Forecaster at the NOAA Space Environment Center, told SPACE.com this afternoon.

You can find the article here. Current AccuWeather.com Satellite here, to give you an idea of your shot at a clear sky. Good luck everyone!

Posted by Carl at 8:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

From AccuWeather.com:
State College, PA - Thursday December 14
High: 55 °F Fog in the morning; otherwise, periods of sun with the temperature near the record of 57 set in 2001

Posted by Carl at 1:14 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

My AccuWeather Nemesis, Henry, has a new video experiment underway. The really disturbing part is that he's using an iSight camera hooked to his laptop, so he's actually filming at his desk, which is right next to my desk. In fact, you can see me walk across the background during his first video today. I then sit down at my desk, which is directly behind the camera, and you can see his reaction. If he thought it was hard keeping a straight face today, wait until I get to the store for various props with which to torture him. The iSight mic also picks up a lot of ambient sound, such as my Macintosh booting up.

Some of you know my intense dislike of being captured on film - particularly video - similar to Bigfoot, Elvis and most aliens. (All of whom, incidentally, are quite skilled at avoiding the camera except maybe Elvis who has been picked up on one too many convenience store security cameras as far as I'm concerned.) So having live filming right at my desk is uncomfortable enough. You can only imagine what it's like having Henry doing the filming.

And speaking of Henry, I received a snowblower update the other day. The snowblower was having technical difficulties, and for a moment my heart soared. But then Henry explained that he had it fixed. So it seems like winter is dead. In fact, State College may hit a record high temperature tomorrow. If you watch his video, you'll doubt hear me yelling from time to time, "What about the SNOWBLOWER Henry?!" I'll probably yell that at the end of the video, so he'll be less inclined to re-shoot.

Posted by Carl at 11:50 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Today's IGAR graphic, courtesy AccuWeather.com:

Posted by Carl at 12:55 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

As Alert Reader Mark mentioned in his comment, State College is actually under the gun for some severe weather - maybe even a tornado or two. Just to explain how weird it gets at a weather company in this sort of situation, I asked Henry is we were going to get a tornado and, without missing a beat, he replied "I hope so!" Of course, that doesn't help me prepare a whole lot. Alert Garbage Chaser Tammy is on duty at home watching our uncollected trash for any signs of movement.

Here's a quick snap of the AccuWeather.com radar from 12:25pm today:

The arrow show the movement of the storms, and the little boxes are 15 minute intervals. The letters/numbers are storm cell identifiers, and I'm at the star. We might see some fireworks in an hour or two. If Henry gets really excited I'll probably just head down to the basement.

Posted by Carl at 12:23 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

My wit was called upon (okay, everyone else was busy) to help out with Kate Bilo's blog as she is out in the midwest somewhere waiting for a blizzard. Stop by and wish Kate well, and check out her video reports from the scene with the AccuWeather Film Crew ("Vern")

Posted by Carl at 3:27 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The first Rock of the winter season seems to be headed to State College with a vengeance. AccuWeather.com has some news on this winter storm, and you can check in with my nemesis Henry for insights into winter weather beyond this storm. The first storm should leave a good swatch of snow from OK to MI (if you're "fortunate" enough to score in this regard takes lots of pictures!) as well as some "icy mix" in a line to the east. Everyone take care with the bad weather, drive slow (or not at all) and don't overdo it with the first shoveling of the year (this tends to be an issue with the first snowfall.)

The storm that may follow, on Monday, will be to our east and too far to make much of a difference. Alert Cashier Tammy, who may or may not hate to drive in winter weather, will be heaving a sigh of relief. How long will our snow drought hold up?

(I should explain, for both of my new readers, that the rock thing comes from "It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown" wherein Charlie goes door to door with his friends trick-or-treating, only to check his bag afterwards and find out that he was given a Rock. How Charles Schultz came up with the idea of adults passing out Rocks to kids will always amaze me, particularly in the day that he did (nowadays that's probably not that far-fetched.) I love snow, and yet live in State College, PA - a valley that often just misses getting snowed on. This phenomenon of being "just missed" by snow has been named "Getting a Rock.")

(If THAT doesn't clear it all up, I'm not sure what would.)

Posted by Carl at 9:40 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Someone wrote me today asking why I was AWOL from the blog. Actually, I'm paraphrasing but AWOL does stand for "Absent Without Official Leave" which describes not blogging perfecting. I'm not sure whom/where to petition to get Official Leave, but I imagine it's some sort of giant blogging committee located in Hoboken.

In any event, I've been blogged-out having recently designed and constructed a global warming blog, with the help of dedicated, talented brainy types too numerous to mention. (But hat tip to MT genius James Spears) Global Warming is a fascinating subject. I can blog all I want to about Global Warming here because this is my own, private, not-connected-to-any-weather-company, no-one-reads blog. In fact, I can even say "Global Warming, Schmarming" and I don't have to get that cleared by anyone anywhere, particularly Official Types in Hoboken.

But Laura is doing an admirable job on a very difficult topic, so stop by and say hello. Bonus points for using my name, although if she replies and says "Who?" don't, you know, put much stock in that she's just kidding. Really.

The pain of working on another blog has faded, some, and I think I might be able to get back to writing. I'm going to watch the stats, though, and if all of you have found something better to do, like scour the web for downloadable pdf coloring pages of elk and deer and print them out and color them in, well then I may retire. The only possible caveat is the winter; if we get a mild winter that doesn't make much of a difference, but if we were to have a severe apocalyptic winter it would be nice to blog about all of that snow. Normally I would say we have a snowball's you know in you know of having an actual winter. But this winter is different, because Alert Future Cashier Tammy may have to drive every weekend to Target which means snow over the entire northeast each Friday and Saturday.

Speaking of Target, Alert Applicant Tammy passed her drug test with flying colors. Orientation starts tomorrow, wherein she learn things like "How to take down an irate Christmas Shopper with only your bare hands and a DVD of Santa Clause 2 which coincidentally is on sale for $12.99 this week only."

Finally, I close with a Global Warming story that may not be featured on any weather blogs that you frequent. Via Drudge I see that the U.N. has created a booklet called "Tore and the Town on Thin Ice" which you can find as a PDF here. My favorite two-page spread would have to be this:

Personally, I'm looking forward to future titles in the series, such as "Tore and the Town of Skin Cancer Zombies Living Under the Ginormous Ozone Hole" and "Tore and the Meteorologist Who Lived Next Door with a Snow Blower." Scary stuff.

Posted by Carl at 4:03 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

My CN (Chief Nemesis) recorded his severe weather video today, and was all spooky-like and donned a mask just for the occasion. So Steve and I (Steve ate the bad donuts, you'll remember) decided to pull a Halloween-like prank and altered his video. You can take a look and listen here, but you'll need flash and your audio turned up.

Posted by Carl at 12:28 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

My nemesis calls me out by name on his blog today. Something about cows, which I might be able to explain but would be too painful. Drop him a note for any clarifications.

Last night we attended a Third Day concert. It was actually my idea, so I won't complain about how loud it was or having to excuse myself to go to the bathroom to treat my bleeding ears. (Actually it was awesome but someone else in my group who may or may not be an Alert Spouse wasn't quite as thrilled.) I'll try to have the big post-concert wrap-up tonight.

I spent much of last week working on another AccuWeather blog. This is ironic in some way that I haven't completely figured out yet. I won't be authoring this blog but you'll definitely want to check it out when we launch. Stay tuned...

Posted by Carl at 10:24 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Sorry about the slow posting, and approving comments. I've been getting hammered (wait for me to finish) by comment spam and am trying to not delete anything important. So if you read often and your comment about phetermine or bras was legit well, sorry.

Speaking of phetermine and bras, Henry was kind enough to mention me in his blog. I'm trying to build his traffic to astronomical heights, so please stop by. You can even leave him a message in his little madness message box. Send him some cow-related puns; he udderly loves that.

Coming later: Henry dressed up as a giant raindrop. Not to be missed.

Posted by Carl at 1:50 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Two work updates:

1. Alert Developer Steve had the worst donuts he's ever eaten. He got them out of the vending machine. It was a package of 6 Hostess chocolate frosted mini-donettes. I'm just passing that along.

2. Henry has been found. He had wandered into a broom closet and people had mistaken his cries of "save me" for a television set. At least, that's what everyone is saying this morning. You can find his blog back on AccuWeather.com, safe and sound.

Posted by Carl at 9:47 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well no sooner had I put a plug in here for Henry's New Blog, "Henry's Meteorological Madness," than it has completely disappeared. Disappeared as in gone - POOF! - vanished. Even my Secret Link™ doesn't work anymore. Thousands of you have written to ask what happened. Okay, would you believe dozens? How about an angry boy scout with a pen knife?

And to that angry boy scout I say, "Put down that pen knife son! It's not worth it!"

In any event, I want everyone to know that as of 4 p.m. today Henry was safe and sound and still nemesesing me. Nemesiing me. Nememing me. Well, he was safe and sound and still being my nemesis. Nemesi. You know what I mean. I'll ask around at work tomorrow and see what happened, and will report here if it that information isn't classified and/or I haven't been silenced. Of course, I want you to know that if I don't report here it doesn't necessarily mean that the information is classified and/or that I have been silenced.

Note: No offense was intended with this post towards the manufacturers of milk, a delicious, nutritious beverage that comes from cows and was originally designed for baby cows, Henry, people who are infected with meteorological madness, web developers, the holder's of classified information or the Japanese Mafia. Thank you.

Posted by Carl at 9:07 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Henry Margusity, AccuWeather.com's Severe Weather Expert and my Chief Nemesis, now has a blog on AccuWeather.com that is totally and completely free although you can send me a small stipend if you so desire. It's called "Henry's Meteorological Madness" primarily because "Margusity's Meteorological Madness" was too long. There's a picture of a cow on there because Henry made me put a picture of a cow on there. If you want to know why there's a cow use the form on the blog page to ask Henry. Ooo, ask him about the snowblower too! He would love that.

His new blog is here: Henry's (Margusity's) Meteorological Madness Blog

Picture at right copyright AccuWeather, Inc. Any likeness to any person, real or imaginary or Margusity, is unintentional and strictly in the mind of the reader. Please do not feed Henry.

Posted by Carl at 3:19 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Elliot Abrams of AccuWeather is having a snow contest - guess "when will New York City (Central Park) have its first inch of snow (1 inch or more in one calendar day)?" You have until September 30 to get your guess together. This is a great way to start out the snow-loving season. The winner gets some sort of wearable something from the AccuMall - which may or may not be the new AccuWeather.com Astronaut Suit™.

And speaking of snow, I have an interesting story to tell about Henry's Snowblower. More on that later...

Posted by Carl at 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

TD7 has been declared by the NHC, you can find a position graphic here from AccuWeather.com. Most models have the storm curving much like Florence - although at least one takes it close to Bermuda this weekend. (Model run.)

It's thought that this storm could be over its depression by Monday and would become Tropical Storm Gordon.

Posted by Carl at 1:15 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

You can see AccuWeather.com's own Henry Margusity give all of the gory details on the coming deluge for State College on the AcccuWeather.com video player. All you need to do is the following (preferably while NOT chewing gum; I don't want anyone to get hurt.)

1. Go to AccuWeather.com.
2. Click on the "Launch Video Player" button on the left side, under "Weather Videos".
3. Click on the "Tropical Storm Ernesto" category on the right side of the player.
4. Click on "Ernesto Flood Potential" - the first video in the left in the upper right.

If, for some reason, this doesn't work - fully blame Henry's snowblower.

Posted by Carl at 3:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC has an amazing track for Ernesto, which differs greatly from AccuWeather's. Below is the NHC track:

On the surface, this may seem like a Silly Storm Track. It would seem silly, because it puts the storm (as a tropical depression) pretty much in State College, Pennsylvania at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday. I mean, what self-respecting storm would go to State College, Pennsylvania?

However this weekend is special, for three reasons:

1. It's the Labor Day Holiday Weekend
2. It's "Move-In Day" - the day Penn State students descend on Happy Valley for the start of classes
3. And finally, in what can only be called a "Brilliant Planning Stratagem" it is also the Nittany Lions opening football game at - you guessed it - 3:30 p.m.

All of these things together make it almost certain that a storm would gravitate this way. However, AccuWeather.com's track is a bit different:

So there you have it - State College, PA or Cape Hatteras, NC. Whose forecast will reign supreme?

Posted by Carl at 9:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

Not yet, but Ernesto seems to be heading towards a certain Louisiana City:

You can find these maps in more detail here:
AccuWeather | NHC | SFWMD

AccuWeather appears to be taking Ernesto west of New Orleans, but the NHC and many of the models are lining up with the Big Easy. Of course this is a nightmare scenario - even if the levees hold, the rain, storm surge and possible tornadoes would cause havoc with the FEMA trailers and all of the debris that sill exists in areas hit by Katrina last year. I'm not in the office today (it IS Saturday, after all) so I'm curious what the meteorology is behind AccuWeather's graphic which has the storm as a "3" in the Gulf and a "2" at landfall. There's usually weakening of these storms at landfall, but there's an awful lot of warm Gulf water in between the two. I'll have to check on Monday.

Although it's not time to panic, it probably will be soon. Get all of your panic preparations ready so that when the time to panic comes, you'll be ready to go.

UPDATE: Models and the NHC continue to shift around, moving generally east. I won't be able to post updated maps with every model run, so stay tuned to the AccuWeather hurricane center and other sources.

Posted by Carl at 2:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Tropical Storm Ernesto has arrived. Ernesto was born at 5pm, near Latitude 14.3 North and Longitude 67.6 West which is about 300 miles SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico and 660 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica. Ernesto is 29.65 inches in central pressure and weighs in at Extremely Very Heavy. The NHC announced Ernesto's birth while the author was eating a Tour of Italy at the Olive Garden that was entirely too large for one human being, no matter how hungry, to eat. The author did, however, give it his best shot.

The name Ernesto is apparently the "Italian, Spanish and Portuguese form" of Ernest. The name Ernest is derived from the Germanic eornost meaning "seriousness". (See also earnest.) The name was used in the title of a play and movie, "The Importance of Being Earnest," which I haven't seen but after some research I gather that it's about someone named Earnest and how important it is for them to be... so.

Ernesto appears to be on trajectory for mischief. Here's a map roundup:

You can find these maps in more detail here:
AccuWeather | NHC | SFWMD

Hopefully we've all learned our lesson and home owners in the Gulf have reinforced their structures with Ubiquitous* Alacrity**. I've been told that stuff is amazingly strong - we actually considered getting Alacrity countertops for our kitchen at one point, but the nice ones are really expensive.

So where does Ernesto end up? The models, NHC and AccuWeather seem to agree that it's in the middle of the Gulf by Wed/Thur a.m. Based on it's track up to that point, I would guess somewhere in Houston. But...that's only a guess. Even Joe Bastardi isn't saying yet. Stay tuned...

*For Angie.

**For Sara. I'm pretty sure I used that right. Some of these words are tricky!

Posted by Carl at 8:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

I've received thousands of emails today from concerned residents of the Caribbean thanking me for my previous Chris post. I think it was about fourteen minutes after my post that Chris completely fell apart. Personally I must say that I'm more than happy to destroy these storms. I'm sure this must frustrate the JM to no end, but you do what you have to do.

AccuWeather has changed their track and intensity:

The track is now farther south, matching what the NHC has. The strength is also considerably lessened; AccuWeather has a tropical storm, and the NHC has gone down again to a Tropical Depression.

I think it still bears watching in the Gulf. Floridians can let their pets and elders out of the home again.

Posted by Carl at 9:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Current Mood:

I'm grumpy tonight because I called One Touch about my son's InDuo blood sugar meter/insulin doser. The insulin doser is going bad as the electronic display is starting to lose some of those lines that make up the numbers. So instead of seeing this:

He'll get something like this:

Needless to say, that's not really a good thing. The doser clicks as you dial up each unit of insulin, but I would rather he have something that works. So I called - One Touch has been very helpful in the past - thinking that I could get a new meter and a new doser. (I had problems with my own InDuo before and knew from my own call that they no longer make the InDuo.) Well I found out that instead of providing a free doser replacement via Novo Nordisk, NN will now send you a "refund" and you have to find a doser yourself. I spent about 20 minutes searching online and can't find anything, although I'm told that they're available from most pharmacies. With hundreds of dollars of insulin in storage downstairs, it's pretty important to find the right doser. Hopefully I'll have better luck tomorrow at the "brick and mortars."

Chris forecasting has taken an interesting turn. The NHC has it moving more south than their earlier track, which takes it right through the islands. (Link) AccuWeather still has it heading through the uprights for a goal, as you can see below:

This track seems to be taking Chris towards the southern tip of Texas (Hello, Brownsville) which would keep Albuquerque* safe unless it makes four left turns at some point. And not only is there a track difference, but by Monday AccuWeather is saying it will be a cat 1-2 hurricane, while the NHC has it as a tropical storm. Whose Forecast will Reign Supreme? Stay tuned...

*One down!

Posted by Carl at 12:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather was somewhat derided when, before the start of the hurricane season, they said that a northeast U.S. hit was more likely this year and that people should prepare. Of course, the preparation point was that EVERYONE at risk should take appropriate preparation steps, but that the northeast was particularly vulnerable because very few people had any hurricane supplies or plans at all.

The AccuWeather.com story is here, and "the" graphic is here.

Now, CBS Evening News has weighed in on an interesting story, which you can find here, that states:

A major northeast hurricane is nearly three times more likely this year thanks to favorable weather conditions, including the position of the Bermuda High. Last year it pushed storms southwest. Now it's set to steer hurricanes up the East Coast.

"Northern hurricanes move two to three times faster than southern hurricanes, so they're gonna be here much sooner," Coastal Geologist Nicholas Coch told Miller. "So a hurricane that is off the coast of Charleston will be here in eight hours. That fast."

Whether it happens this year, or next, or whenever, now is the time to prepare. When something is in the forecast is NOT the time to try and "get down to Lowe's" to get what you need, or to make a plan for getting out of a city.

Posted by Carl at 3:35 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I haven't had much to say on Beryl because I've been crazy busy with several top secret projects that I could tell you all about but then...well, you know. I noticed today that the USA Today Weather Guys talked about the name Beryl which is not the media onslaught I had expected when I tried to get my Beryl post in early (Beryl - best storm name ever?) but Doyle raises some interesting points I hadn't considered.

It looks like she's headed towards Cape Cod, which technically is in the northeast which is one of the areas that AccuWeather has stressed will be under the gun this year.

Posted by Carl at 2:01 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

We launched the new beta version of AccuWeather.com, for those of you interested in such things. You can visit http://2k6.accuweather.com and take a look around. This is just "Phase 1" and doesn't impact certain site areas like the hurricane center, so as you go through it you may see things that do not look like they've changed. But take a look at the navigation, and the organization and whatnot. You can drop me an email at schaad@accuweather.com with your thoughts, and/or take the survey that is linked from the top of the left column.

I'm sure there are some browser nits to stomp out, so I'd be interested in hearing about those as well. Thanks!

Posted by Carl at 9:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Tonight we had drill practice. My LEGO® army and I, that is. The photo above shows them right before drill practice, when they were just standing around all awkward-like trying to make conversation even though they don't know each other very well (different walks of life, and all.) I expect to have them whipped into shape before they go into battle. This is only a small portion of the army. There are actually 23,000 LEGO soldiers off-camera that you can't see. They were milling around trying to make conversation too.

As you know, (if you've been following closely,) I'm amassing a LEGO army to conquer my office. I expect that once Henry is subdued the rest of the meteorologists will fall faster than brownies at a potluck. I've been very fortunate so far in my recruitment efforts - I've managed to secure a red ninja, a black ninja, and Santa Claus, who as we know is a Jolly Old Ninja. See if you can spot all three in the picture above. (I'll have the answer soon...I wouldn't want to leave anyone hanging. In the meantime, if you MUST know NOW, I take Paypal.)

Posted by Carl at 11:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

Update here. I'm going to save my witty repartee until this evening, assuming it will continue to get its act together...

Posted by Carl at 12:43 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That sounds really medical, sorry. "Carl, I'm afraid you have Possible Alberto. Use this model spray twice each day..."

I'm not a professional Model Interpreter, but it looks to me like Bigfoot IS in fact real and living in southern Texas. I mean, it looks to me like something is headed to Florida. Which is nice, since they need the rain, as long as it's a modest storm and not some monster. But the timing seems to be somewhere around the Monday-Tuesday frame, which wouldn't give this much of an opportunity to strengthen. Of course, stay glued to the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for the latest.

Posted by Carl at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

There's a great mini-interview with AccuWeather's Jesse Ferrell in the St. Pete Times here. Give it a look-see when you get the chance. The article has an interesting premise - that the web is FREAKING OUT about some rain near the Yucatan. I alluded to this in Yesterday's Post about Alberto, inasmuch as everyone including your Grandma had probably already told you about the potential for Alberto to form. I don't know if this attention is due to "First Storm Syndrome" or because of the record-smashing season last year or just a symptom of our collective fascination with the weather. I suppose anything that heightens our awareness of weather, particularly hurricanes, is good for public safety and good for the private weather industry. I just don't know if I could take this sort of thing all season long. I'll have to drop the weather posts completely and stick with Bigfoot and BABO™ (Did you know they're cousins?)

Posted by Carl at 11:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Kate Bilo is working on a new video show at AccuWeather, and is soliciting questions to be asked of AccuWeather Personalities™. Of course, this would not include me, since I have no personality, but those of you who are weather-obsessed may want to avail yourself of the opportunity. For example, you could ask Kate to ask Henry about the Snowblower thing, which really does need to be explained. Or, you could ask Kate to ask Jesse about his cam, which also should be explained. OR, you could just ask a serious question, like what she plans to do about the coming LEGO® Armageddon.

You can reach Kate at bilo@accuweather.com. She's one of the more creative people at AccuWeather, so if you're inclined take a moment out to email her and help out. You can copy me on the email if you'd like and I can follow up with Kate, or bug Henry and/or Jesse. Thanks!

(I pinch!)

Posted by Carl at 2:01 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The GFS, which is a computer weather model that stands for either "Global Forecast System" or "Gnome Fondness Syndrome," is showing some sort of Gulf of Mexico weather disturbance which may or may not be a tropical storm or may or may not be a hurricane and may or may not actually happen. Two things are showing up right now; one at 300 hours (~ May 29) headed for New Orleans/Mobile, and one at 330 hours (~ May 30, 31) headed for the Florida Panhandle. Now, before everyone panics and heads to Peoria it's still very early. So, we'll see. But thought you'd like a model heads up.

Keep an eye on the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for news and bulletins.

Posted by Carl at 6:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather has a great article and impact map on the website here. As you can see from the graphic, the Northeast coast (NY, MA, CT, RI,) and the Carolinas are labeled "Very High" risk, and the Texas coast and south Florida are labeled "High" risk. Additionally, AccuWeather is being very specific with a forecast of Six Hits, including five hurricanes (three major - category three or greater) and one tropical storm. The Atlantic Hurricane Season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, Russian Made Cold War Era Weather Machines notwithstanding.

Obviously a hit on the northeast coast in the area that AccuWeather has highlighted would be huge, particularly if it would be a category three or greater, which according to the odds is a good bet (six predicted hits, half of which would be cat 3+.) I think the message to take away here is that everyone should be prepared. If you live on the coast of the Florida panhandle (i.e. "Low" risk) that's no reason to skip buying your bottled water and tickets to Peoria this year.

Posted by Carl at 9:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

(See, I take a few days off and there's too much news to cover.)

JB (AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi) recently spoke to a "room packed with energy executives" (now that sounds like a lively bunch) and predicted that one tropical storm and five hurricanes would hit the nation's coast between now and November (i.e. the entire "normal" hurricane season.) MarketWatch article here. Obviously the energy industry takes a great deal of interest in hurricane predictions, especially after last year. The oil industry is still missing about 22% of its normal production due to hurricane damage.

Posted by Carl at 10:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

And WeatherData has been assimilated. (Resistance is futile.)

Article here. Congrats to both teams, I know I'm very pleased to have WeatherData on board.

Posted by Carl at 12:40 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Mala actually means "garland of flowers" in Bengali. Although, my Bengali is a little rusty. It definitely means either "garland of flowers" or "a dozen jelly donuts." One or the other.

AccuWeather has a nice sat shot and write up in our hurricane center.

Posted by Carl at 9:40 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I spent some time on eBay, with the hopes of amassing my army. I confess this is going to be harder than I thought. For example, I found a nice Jedi warrior - he had a special double-bladed light saber - but he was $20! And that was without the super saver shipping offer of $29.95 and the handling fee of $12.95.

Still, I could see him doing some sort of force thing on Henry. Maybe send him to the break room at the beginning of the assault. ("These are the Tastykakes you're looking for...")

After discovering what my army was going to cost I went through the kid's LEGOs figuring there was a fortune to be had in there - or at least some grunts for the army. All I could find were pieces of people. I mean, even the arms and hands were ripped out. It was as if millions of LEGOs suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.

I'll keep everyone posted on my efforts. Don't, ah, tell anyone at work. You know, the element of surprise and all.

Posted by Carl at 10:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

I've decided that I'm going to amass an army of LEGO® People and take over the office. I'm not sure how many I'll need; probably a thousand or so. I'm going to start with athletes, Jedi and military personnel because I figure they'll be tougher than, say, the Pizza Delivery LEGO® Guy (although he comes with a pizza stick™ thing which he could use as a weapon.)

I figure about a hundred could take Henry out, and from there the rest will fall like dominos.

(Apparently, LEGO® People are highly collectible.)

Posted by Carl at 11:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

I missed this, primarily because of the word "Early" which makes me break out in hives. But Joe was on the CBS Early Show this past week talking about his hurricane forecast. Did anyone see it or TIVO it? Just curious. He was quoted as saying: