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Five Hurricanes?

August 28, 2008

Several of the models are showing numerous storms developing...here's just one:

fivestorms.gif

Two of these storms are already declared: Gustav and Hanna. Gustav is still largely on track for Lousiana, but Hanna's something of a mystery as the models don't seem to know what to do with it. Some curve it back out to see, some do a loop, so just have it meandering aimlessly - just the same way that I shop for groceries. (Note to self: get donuts.) I have a feeling from what I've seen and read that Florida may be in for another hit. Hopefully they'll get a break.

Will Gustav be a hurricane that affects everyone in the country? Some "conventional wisdom" thinks so, and it goes like his: Gustav hits New Orleans during the Republican National Convention. The media rushes to cover it, with the obligatory comparisons to Katrina. "Katrina II" is born, and the coverage becomes wall-to-wall hurricane. News. Victims. Homes floating away. The political savvy exploit the situation and a Democrat president is elected.

I'm not sure I buy any of that. Conventional wisdom is often not. But keep all that in mind as we watch what happens. And above all, everyone rush your plans to completion, buy some donuts, and be prepared for a storm, whether you're in Texas or up the east coast.

Addendum: I heard today that oil dropped. Bigfoot was cited as having bought 5,000 barrels on some pretend oil-trading website. I can't confirm or deny this. We'll see what the price is when Gustav makes landfall, and see if "investing" half a million dollars can "earn" we $20 or $30 bucks.

Just What In The World Are You Going To Do?

June 10, 2008

I found a brilliant article at Freakonomics today written by Stephen J. Dubner, whom I have never personally battled in a game of croquet. (In case you were wondering.) Stephen has also never attended a single one of my Petroleum Man Burnings, which does disappoint me some. But I digress.

The article has a great story about making ice cream and how, at the end of the process, the ingredients cost $12 and the ice cream didn't turn out well. Once you factor in labor costs, electricity and gas for cooking and traveling to the store, you can see he probably really took a bath.

Of course, you have to decide if you were trying to make ice cream to save money, or were you trying to make ice cream because of other quality intangibles: it brought the family together in a shared experience, you created lasting memories of the crappy ice cream you made, perhaps you learned through the process how to make better ice cream the next time.

So on the one hand you have all of the financial considerations, and on the other - the intangibles.

I was thinking about this exact thing because of the price of gasoline, food, energy, etc. My thought was, "How can I cut down our expenses by doing more and spending less?" My first idea was "couponing." I read somewhere that aggressive coupon usage can save you $600 dollars from your yearly food bill*.

BUT. Is that a good deal? Let's say that managing the coupons (hunting them down, clipping them, organizing them, hunting down the right products at the store, using the coupons - the whole process) add 5 hours a week and will therefore save you $11.53* That means you basically have a coupon job that is paying you $2.30/hr. At this point, does it make much sense? If I can earn $50/hr doing design consulting work then this would seem like robbing from my family.

At least, that's the conclusion that seemed inescapable.

But then I realized that people who do the coupon thing probably get more out of it than the merely the savings. They derive a certain pleasure and sense of accomplishment (which is perfectly deserved) and that should be calculated into any decision like this.

I guess I'm still not sure how to apply any of this. I doubt I'll be calling someone every-time something breaks or need fixed or sanded or glued or nailed, molded, or painted. But I wonder how much one should think about these decisions.


Is there something you do to save money that maybe doesn't save money but you also just love doing it? I'd be thrilled to hear of any examples out there. I would have someone blog for me but that would be an added expense with very little return, unless the person got very popular and wrote a series of witty Disney Travel Books, in which case I would mostly be happy for him. Just after I would have pounded him to jelly with my laptop.

Any couponers out there? Or anyone out there either do-it-themselves with a great rationale, or hire someone else to do it for them with an even better rationale. I'd love to hear! If you don't want to leave a comment, email me at carl@carlschaad.com or leave a note in a message not to publish it. Thanks!

*I suspect my numbers are way off, both in terms of what couponing can save when done correctly, and how much time is involved in doing it correctly. So if you double the amount saved in a year to $1200, and increase your time to 7 hours, you're still only making $14/hr. Good, but not the $50 I'm looking for. Of course, the $14 is tax-free and the $50 isn't, so it's more like $14 vs $30. Still better but not doable.

New Poll Testing Thing

May 29, 2008

I've been searching the web high and low for a decent poll. I'm actually willing to pay (a little) (okay, very little) for something that works well. So, in the next few days feel free to vote on whatever I'm testing.

This is a test of a Constant Contact poll. Mmmmm gas prices.

(Test over, thanks!)

Advent of the Four-Day Work Week

May 27, 2008

An article in the Wall Street Journal tonight (Oil Prices Prompt Four-Day Week) talks about a group of smaller towns and community colleges switching to four ten-hour work days, and how larger local governments are showing interest as well:

"Michigan's Oakland County and New York's Suffolk County are both considering putting public employees on four-day workweeks. In Oklahoma, a resolution has been introduced in the state house of representatives recommending all state and local public employers move to a shortened week to provide relief from the cost of commuting."

I was thinking about this very topic only yesterday, when Alert Reader and BBQ Genius Jim mentioned a four-day work week. The price of oil and gas are the main drivers (no pun intended) (no, really) of this, and the savings could be considerable:

'"The things I've been reading say this is not a temporary hike in gas as we've seen in the months of the past," said L. Brooks Patterson, county executive for Oakland County, a wealthy area north of Detroit. "I don't think it stops at $4.20. I think it can easily be $5 or $6 a gallon."

Mr. Patterson is seeking approval from the county's Board of Commissioners to install a four-day, 40-hour workweek that would remain in place for "the foreseeable" future. As many as 1,500 of the county's 4,000 employees could end up working four 10-hour days a week instead of five eight-hour days.

Assuming gas stays at $4 a gallon and workers use two gallons for each round trip to work, Mr. Patterson estimated the savings from having 800 workers commuting only four days a week could save them a total of about $300,000 over the course of a year."

And work commutes are not the only thing on the American chopping block: this CNN article cites Department of Transportation figures that show Americans drove 11 billion fewer miles in March 2008 than March 2007. 11 Billion. With a B. I checked online and it's only 746 million miles to Saturn. So Americans drove less than more than the distance to Saturn in one month. (Sorry, it's getting late.) That seems pretty amazing.

I suspect four-day work weeks, telecommuting and video conferencing are all going to be looked at as possible solutions to mitigate the cost of gasoline, which is soon going to be somewhere between $4 and $18 a gallon, depending on the news story you're reading.

What do you think? Would you jump at a four-day work week? Or telecommute one day a week?

More at the WSJ (behind a subscription wall)