Alert Reader Chris made mention of Model Spray™ in the comments. The spray on Felix (currently a Cat 3) isn't terribly interesting because there's general agreement:

But the next storm, which may or may not be Gabrielle depending on what develops where, is a true "spray:"

You can see that there's not much in the way of model agreement on that storm.

Posted by Carl at 1:36 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Felix has been upgraded to a Category 1, not to be confused with being updated to a cartoon cat. As an aside, I would be willing to bet that the Felix the Cat Wikipedia entry sees more traffic this month than the last three years combined.

Felix is heading for Aruba, which is a lovely tourist destination but hurricanes generally avoid it because of its southern location, breathtaking views, crystal clear ocean and white sand beaches. Aruban (Arubian? Arubanese?) residents are boarding up and an Anderson Cooper watch is in effect until after the holiday. Here's a fairly recent look at Felix:

There's a great view of Aruba via Google Maps. Here, you can see the giant Arubinian Hurricane Bowls that have been erected to contain the monster storms should one ever stray to the island. I think if you zoom in enough you can see Anderson Cooper waving.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center

Posted by Carl at 9:21 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Felix was born in the wee hours of the morning. He's expected to travel pretty much along the same path as Dean, as you can see from this model spread courtesy the AccuWeather.com Pro site:

Posted by Carl at 11:55 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

No, sadly that's not the name of the new dance that Carl is learning. We know this because Carl does not possess the dancing gene, not to be confused with Gene Gene the Dancing Machine who was that guy on the Gong Show. Where was I? The Yucatan, thanks.

Below you can see a historic track of Hurricane Dean courtesy AccuWeather.com, and a graphic showing the likely track of T.D. 6, which will probably become "Felix" sometime over the holiday weekend. The tracks look very similar; I'm sure Belize would like a break.

Posted by Carl at 9:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Some of the thinking here at AccuWeather is along the Canadian route - some sort of hit on Florida. We should know by Thursday what sort of development has occurred that might threaten Florida. Assuming that all goes down correctly, Floridians would be looking at a storm this weekend. That gives you about 5-7 days to find old, discarded battleships from which to peal off sheets of metal to cover you home. Or, move to Nampa, Idaho - which incidentally has no hurricane preparedness material on their site - probably a good sign.

Posted by Carl at 1:01 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That sounds like a great movie title or book title. It probably would be written by Tom Clancy, and the movie would star Morgan Freeman who may or may not be Canadian. In this case I'm actually going to refer to the canadian forecast model, which is commonly called the CMC. I think CMC stands for Canadian Meteorological Centre, which may explain all of this talk about Canadians.

In any event, the Canadian (the model, not Morgan Freeman) goes all nuts with a florida hurricane:

This image was cobbled together from the Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields thing at FSU, which you can find here. I set the animated GIF to run 5 times with a 5 second pause; you'll have to reload it if you want to view it, say, 6 times.

Based on my expert pixel analysis this would be headed straight for Ft. Lauderdale. While it's still early, consider these remarkable "coincidences:"

1. Ft. Lauderdale is known as the "Venice of America." Venice, as we all know, is part of an ancient civilization (Rome) that was destroyed by taxes, open-air buffets and hurricanes.

2. Ft. Lauderdale is an anagram of Dreadful Teal*, and teal is pretty close to blue, the color of hurricanes.

3. It's well known that Tom Clancy's younger brother October** lives in Ft. Lauderdale.

4. Florida, home to Ft. Lauderdale, just juts out there in the water between the very warm Gulf of Mexico and the very warm Atlantic Ocean. Many of the hurricanes that form every year in this region appear in either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean.

5. In order to prevent a panic, Florida Government Officials have said ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about this potential threat. Go ahead, ask them.

So if you live in Ft. Lauderdale what should you do? The Blog Hero would be happy to give you free advice but our legal team (Sven) has instead asked that this statement be issued:

The Blog Hero, Blog Hero Inc., Blog Hero Enterprises, employees and family members of Blog Hero are in no way responsible for any use, non-use, thoughtful pre-use or un-non-pre-use of any hurricane information, maps, graphics, data or datum presented on the Blog Hero blog or anywhere else on earth. Any information provided is for entertainment purposes only, but Blog Hero makes no guarantee, formal or informal, applied or air dried, that said non-informative entertainment will be entertaining. Please use or disuse all entertainment at your own risk. Blog Hero does not suggest boarding up your house with sheet metal torn off of old Navy battleships, nor does Blog Hero endorse fleeing the state of Florida for something more inland, say Idaho. Thank you.

Good luck out there!

*It's also an anagram of "Farted La Duel" but after much careful consideration and thought the Blog Hero and representatives thereof have decided not to publish this for fear of alienating members of the audience by writing the word "farted." It should be noted, however, that "Farted La Duel" has now be trademarked by Blog Hero, Inc., because it would make a really great book title. (Dreadful Teal has also be trademarked, and will be an unsuccessful garage band any day now.)

**One of Tom's famous books, The Hunt for Red October, involves the difficult family issues of adoption, line dancing and being sold into a Russian Slave Labor Ring.

Posted by Carl at 10:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

One of the computer models, the GFDL, has been targeting the U.S. coast pretty consistently. It's one of the more eastern tracks now, and a recent run (which you can generate for yourself here) has a pretty ugly hit on Louisiana, close to New Orleans, as a borderline category 4/5:

Of course this model is in disagreement with the model consensus, which is much more southern/western.

Posted by Carl at 2:52 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The UKMET and GFDL, not normally "model bedfellows" seem to be pointing to Houston.

AccuWeather's track is currently taking it south of that, for a hit on the south Texas border similar to Emily. We'll see - it's still early. But the GFDL track is scary, with a miss on Yucatan and a hit on the heart of Texas.

Posted by Carl at 9:23 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's the latest model guidance. The plots for Dean have been all over the place, from Mexico to New York. It'll be a few more days before there's a concrete track. Based on what little meteorology I suspect Dean hits somewhere in southern Texas. Of course, my meteorological credentials consist of sitting next to Henry...

Posted by Carl at 2:37 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Or is this the beginning of a busy Florida run? Without being in Disney World I have a hard time envisioning problems there, but you never know...

Posted by Carl at 9:04 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well, sort of:

It looks to be a smaller storm than the Canadian had originally projected, but now a second model sees it. Stay tuned...

Link to eftcgpf

Posted by Carl at 3:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well, I have to say that the hurricane season so far has surprised me. I think I predicted something like three hundred hurricanes, so unless we get busy here soon I'm probably (probably) going to fall short.

I did a model sweep and didn't see anything too interesting. The Canadian model does have a pretty nice storm crashing into Cape Cod:

But you'll note that's on day 5, which is an eternity away for a computer model. In any event, that would be Monday, so if you're in Cape Cod you've got that long to panic, run to Lowe's, buy wood, nail it to your house, panic, and then go down to the beach and greet Anderson Cooper. Or, you could stay tuned to Jesse's blog, where he'll no doubt post the latest and greatest.

(Model shot courtesy FSU Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields here.) (Say THAT ten times fast.)

UPDATE: Here's JB's thoughts on the Canadian Model:
"The Canadian is not the dangerous racer on the track with its crazy tropical solutions. For the 5th run in a row, it entrains the tropical energy and drives what looks to be a hurricane into New England. For kicks and giggles, it will be on the big dog this morning, but it is certainly not the model du jour when it comes to this and is rapidly becoming the old GFS hurricane somewhere on every run model, something that will kill its longer term operational runs. Speed kills, but so does heat, when it comes to models if its not handled right"

Posted by Carl at 3:35 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Bill Proenza has been "temporarily reassigned." Deputy Director Ed Rappaport is replacing him as Director of the NHC.

The Miami Herald has a timeline.

Posted by Carl at 4:08 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

In this previous entry I talked about the pressure the new Hurricane Director, Bill Proenza, has been finding himself under after making several negative remarks about his "corporate parent." Now the Palm Beach Post is reporting that 23 staffers are calling for his removal.

I can't really comment on the relationships of the people who signed the letter asking for his dismissal, but one of them was Evangelina Maruly, Proenza's secretary. Now, that has to hurt.

Proenza has said he won't resign. The busy part of the hurricane season (if we even have one this year) begins soon, in August, and the 23 signatories to the letter say that Proenza is a distraction from their vital core mission.

Another meteorologist piling on is Dr. Jeff Masters, who is the director for meteorology at Weather Underground. (The weather site, not the terrorist organization.) He weighs in on his blog here, suggesting that Proenza has been misleading on the status of the QuikSCAT satellite and - coupled with losing the confidence of his team - should result in his stepping down.

Posted by Carl at 9:05 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Hurricane Chief Bill Proenza - for now?

When asked about the surprise visit Monday night, Proenza would only confirm it and say little else. "I await their finding and, hopefully, their support.''

The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs through November 30.

Posted by Carl at 9:31 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Flickr photo of Barry ©dejay181

The UK Meteorological Office is issuing a first-ever hurricane prediction, calling for only ten more named storms (for a total of 12 this season). This is far than more U.S. groups are calling for, if you recall my earlier chart. The average prediction there is 14.9 storms, although nine-tenths of a storm doesn't sound very bad.

So why the big difference? The UK researchers claim their methodology is "more advanced," using fancy-shmancy computer simulations of the atmosphere and oceans, as opposed to the complex dart-throwing methods of U.S. researchers. The UK researchers claim their computer ("Hal") shows a cooling of ocean waters, which would mean less storm development and the Global Warming heralded End of Everything As We Know It.*

The Atlantic hurricane seasons officially runs through the end of November.

AP Article on British Prediction

*Okay I made that up.

Posted by Carl at 3:18 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The Miami Herald has an interesting article, "Candid storm chief gets a lashing," posted on Saturday to their website. It discusses the public criticism that the new director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Proenza, has leveled at NOAA. In question is a hurricane satellite called QuikScat which was launched in 1999 and is now past its prime. Proenza complains that there is no replacement plan for QuikScat and its loss would mean a reduction in the quality of hurricane forecasts.

Proenza has also been an outspoken critic of spending habits at NOAA, specifically a multi-million dollar PR campaign for NOAA's 200th anniversary.

Now apparently Proenza has been chastised for his comments by the acting director of the National Weather Service. And yes, you probably do need a flowchart at this point to keep track of everyone. Will "Hurricane Bill" survive at the NHC? Will NOAA get rid of him before or after the '07 hurricane season? Proenza himself seems to think his resume may need dusting off: ''I don't think they can pull the rug out from under me right now,'' he said, "but there is no question they are trying to muzzle me.''

Posted by Carl at 9:32 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

There's two words you probably didn't think you'd see together today. A tropical cyclone (a.k.a. Hurricane) named Gonu is heading for Oman, and then on to Iran. Not only is that fairly unusual, but the cyclone has reached the equivalent strength of a category 5 storm, although it's let off a bit of steam since doing so and is currently category 4. (Still the strongest in that area of the world in modern history.)

Google News is full of Gonu stories, such as this one. Many of the articles focus on the impact on oil and natural gas. This article has an interesting run-down.

Posted by Carl at 9:21 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC declared the mass of clouds and rain in the gulf Tropical Storm Barry (Manilow). The storm is located southwest of Disney World. As you can see from the following graphic, the storm is headed directly for the Copacabana:

There's no word yet on why Tropical Storm Barry (Manilow) is heading for the Copacabana. However, Blog Hero has it on good authority that music and passion are always the fashion at the Copa. This could explain the storm's movement.

Posted by Carl at 11:30 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Courtesy the South Florida Water Management District:

Posted by Carl at 9:39 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's an interesting shot from one of the computer models 66 hours out, which is somewhere around Sunday morning. I feel for the folks at Disney World this weekend - they probably won't need Kali River Rapids to get wet as this would dump a good bit of rain.

Could this be tropical storm Barry Manilow? Only time will tell...

Posted by Carl at 10:31 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I mentioned in the earlier Hurricane 2007 post that there are a number of researchers looking at the impending Atlantic Hurricane Season and making public their official guesses carefully considered and researched forecasts. University of Central Florida researcher Mark Johnson and his Georgia colleague Chuck Watson have put together some interesting research based on:

1. Analysis of statistical models of storm paths from the past 155 years
2. Analysis of models using the climate conditions for January through May '07 (that further compute the climate conditions for the rest of the year)
3. A 10-year body of work on probability analyses for hurricanes

The UCF has a press release here about it.

Here's one of the many graphics that they've published:

This study suggests that the Gulf Coast is under the gun, which is similar to AccuWeather.com's conclusion. You'll note, looking at the map above, that Disney World is in the "Much Above Normal" area. They may have gotten wind (sorry) of my possible trip to the Magic Kingdom.

The website of Mark Johnson and Chuck Watson, Watson Technical Consulting, can be found here.

Posted by Carl at 4:23 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Jesse has an interesting post here about the NHC/NOAA/CPC/JM hurricane predictions, and contends that they're basically predicting 10-20 storms this season. Give or take.

And SciGuy Eric Berger, who may or may not have gotten beaten up as a kid for his milk money, has a post here discussing the pre-season predictions. He lets Joe Bastardi have it, stating that Joe's prediction of named storms is "doom and death" and "Bastardi doesn't predict specific numbers." He adds, "His chief currency is fear."

This is interesting because it's almost completely wrong. First, Joe Bastardi (and AccuWeather.com team) have predicted actual numbers - you can read the press release here. The forecast is for 13-14 storms, 3+ being "major" (major meaning that Anderson Cooper will likely be drawn to the coast.)

Given the "Bastardi Number" is actually less than Gray's number, or the upper limit of the NOAA/NHC forecast, why is Bastardi tagged as the "doom and death" guy?

I'll give Mr. Berger the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to a lack of research. Apparently he took a look at the pre-season discussion, not the forecast which was issued later, and drew conclusions from that.

Finally, there's a telling comment in the comments section of the SciGuy's post. It goes like this:

My experience tells me this is exactly the opposite of how it works in the private sector. The AccuWeather team has a number of private clients (and a growing website) that receive our detailed hurricane forecasts. If you accept the "doom and death" fear-mongering position, AccuWeather wouldn't have these clients - the free market would punish any company providing content that was continuously wrong, bad and created for the purpose of inciting fear. Just the opposite is occurring - AccuWeather is growing because the hurricane information is very valuable to the clients AccuWeather serves. I've observed Joe at AccuWeather and he's passionate, works long, insane hours, and put everything into his forecasting - keeping what works and learning from any mistakes. And his clients understand that.

Disclaimer: The Blog Hero, who may or may not work at AccuWeather, would like to say that he has never met the SciGuy, Dr. Gray, Dr. Gray's team, most of NOAA and the NHC. Furthermore, the Blog Hero has never been to Houston, which I'm sure is a delightful city, and has never picked up a copy of the Houston Chronicle to read over a double half-caf decaffinated ginger latte expresso (with cream.) No body builders were harmed in the writing of this post. Thank you.

Posted by Carl at 12:15 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC is out with their predictions, and so I'm updating this previous entry. Here we go:

To review, the names for storms this season in the Atlantic are:
01 Andrea
02 Barry
03 Chantal
04 Dean
05 Erin
06 Felix
07 Gabrielle
08 Humberto
09 Ingrid
10 Jerry
11 Karen
12 Lorenzo
13 Melissa
14 Noel
15 Olga
16 Pablo
17 Rebekah
18 Sebastien
19 Tanya
20 Van
21 Wendy

Carl's Predictions

And finally, here's a poll I'd like everyone to consider taking. Not only will it tally up the yes/no/maybes, but it will plot them on a map. So at the end of the season we can see if they yes people were right, or the no people were right, or some of the yes people were right but all of the no people were wrong, or the Florida people should have packed up and moved to Idaho. You know who you are.

*Andrea notwithstanding since she was a sub tropical storm.

Posted by Carl at 2:29 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather.com has published their hurricane thoughts, including those of Chief Hurricane Guru Joe Bastardi. You can find the hurricane preview here. This graphic sums it up:

This is also the "Carl Wants to go to Disney World This Year" graphic. We've been talking about going this November, and I'll probably have to write a long explanation of why we would go then, but right now our funding is falling a little short. If the funding can somehow come through, then yes, look for 20 named storms this year and for Florida to get pummeled relentlessly, particularly in the late Nov. to early Dec. timeframe.

Posted by Carl at 10:19 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I thought I would run down the hurricane season predictions, since there seem to be a few out there. This will help with your pre-hurricane season stress and panicking. Having this knowledge in advance of any actual hurricanes arriving* will help with all sorts of planning, like how much bottled water to store in your basement, whether or not to get the orange Duck® tape or the silver Duck® tape, whether to brick up those pesky windows once and for all, and maybe even how much anti-anxiety medication you should budget for.

*NOAA's numbers are coming out next week, at which point I will likely update this chart.

To review, the names for storms this season in the Atlantic are:
01 Andrea
02 Barry
03 Chantal
04 Dean
05 Erin
06 Felix
07 Gabrielle
08 Humberto
09 Ingrid
10 Jerry
11 Karen
12 Lorenzo
13 Melissa
14 Noel
15 Olga
16 Pablo
17 Rebekah
18 Sebastien
19 Tanya
20 Van
21 Wendy

I thought I would take my stab at this hurricane prediction thing. If I'm wildly off target no one will remember except both of you reading this. But if my guess is accurate I'll be Official Seer for a Day.

Carl's Predictions

And finally, here's a poll I'd like everyone to consider taking. Not only will it tally up the yes/no/maybes, but it will plot them on a map. So at the end of the season we can see if they yes people were right, or the no people were right, or some of the yes people were right but all of the no people were wrong, or the Florida people should have packed up and moved to Idaho. You know who you are.

*Andrea notwithstanding since she was a sub tropical storm.

Posted by Carl at 12:51 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Andrea is born, and the 2007 season is off and running.

Jesse has the model spray.

Posted by Carl at 11:08 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

From the NHC:

000
WONT41 KNHC 091303
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

A subtropical storm is a storm that isn't clever enough nor well-liked/popular enough to be a tropical storm. Tropical storm cliques usually abuse subtropical storms when the come around, either verbally or by taping signs to their backs such as "Kick me" or "My feeder bands are small and weak" or "Poke me in the eye."

Posted by Carl at 9:41 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Update: Subtropical storm to form?

Update 2: From AccuWeather.com: Tropical Storm in Disguise?

Posted by Carl at 10:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Cassini took some fascinating video of a "hurricane-like" vortex located at Saturn's south pole. You can find a quicktime version here and an mpeg version here. NASA has an article here.

The storm has winds estimated at 350 miles per hour. Cloud heights are estimated at 20 to 45 miles, if I read that right, and the storm is about 5,000 miles across. When you study the imagery it's amazing how similar this is to a hurricane: you can see the storm "bands," an "eye-like feature" and even Floridians boarding up their homes.

Here's an image that was created from the video data that Cassini captured:

Image details.

Posted by Carl at 10:42 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Now that winter is over (the exciting, snowy part of winter, which some people report having seen but in State College was, for the most part, hiding behind my neighbor's recycling bin) and the El Niño has faded meteorologists have looked high and low, long and hard to find some sort of weather boogeyman. Okay, I suppose that's not entirely true and I just wanted to type "boogey" but now that I did that I can move on with what I was saying. Boogey boogey boogey.

The current candidate? La Niña! As any fifth grader can tell you, La Niña is the cooling of the equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. This often leads to complete and total disaster on an apocalyptic scale. For one, lots of fish are very disturbed because of the cooler water. This leads to fish flatulence, one of the main contributors of fish-induced global warming.

The other potential problems are increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and droughts in the southwest United States.

You can read about the La Nina here at the OCRegister.

Posted by Carl at 3:07 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

(With apologies to Douglas Adams.) Max Mayfield, the former director of the National Hurricane Center, departs his job with a message for the United States (and, especially, southern Florida) - Run! Run for Your Lives!

Okay, I made that up - but his message isn't much different. Max is convinced (despite his otherwise optimistic nature) that we're living on borrowed time and it's inevitable that we're going to see a major hurricane hit a populated area like southern Florida. In fact, this article talks about his "apocalyptic vision" of thousands dead and millions homeless.

I often wonder what would happen if you have a massive storm target southern Florida - because you really have no place to run. You can drive north, but everyone would be driving north, and it wouldn't be hard for a storm to change direction slightly and move north also, trapping everyone on the roads during a category 5. I know, it sounds like a made-for-TV movie, starring Victoria Principal, Brian Dennehy and Nipsey Russell* as the NHC Meteorologist trying (unsuccessfully) to warn everyone in time. But, it's a possibility, at least to Max Mayfield. (I mean, the hurricane not the movie.)

All the best to Max as he leaves the NHC and pursues a more calm life outside of government.

(*I've heard the rumors that Nipsey Russell died in October of 2005 but refuse to believe them. There have been many, many Nipsey sightings since then, the latest and most credible at a IHOP in Tennessee just this past December, although Nipsey was apparently dressed as Santa at the time.)

Posted by Carl at 9:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I'm not sure why - and I work at a weather company - but apparently people are already releasing predictions for the 2007 Hurricane Season. It seems a little early to me, but I'm not an actual meteorologist (I just play one when I ghost write Henry's blog.)

Two predictions are out so far: Tropical Storm Risk, a U.K.-based group of insurers and forecasters are calling for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes including four "intense hurricanes." Dr. Gray's team from Colorado State University is calling for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes including three "Category 3 storms" or better. Both predictions are for "busier than normal" seasons.

I confess that I've been toying with the idea of going to Orlando next year. It will take that long for my money-printing device to be finished. It's possible these forecasters have gotten wind of this (so to speak) and have had their hands forced with regard to hurricane predictions. I'm not sure where the leak came from; anytime I visit Florida I'm required to call into the Governor's office so that they can make the appropriate contingency plans. When I last spoke to Jeb, he asked if I would consider coming in December, when even my presence is unlikely to attract a Category 5 storm. I said I would consider it if they mailed me some fresh O.J.

(I'm still waiting for the O.J.)

Posted by Carl at 1:21 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison have proposed an interesting correlation between the amount of African dust swirling in the Atlantic Ocean and the development of hurricanes. Article here. I won't try to go into all of the details here because it's Very Technical, but suffice it to say that when there is a lot of dust blowing around hurricanes seem less likely to form. When there is less or no dust, hurricanes are more likely to form. This is, very obviously, linked to Global Warming. As the earth continues to warm from greenhouse gases, sand in Africa gets much heavier because it is absorbing extra heat. Then, when the wind comes along and tries to pick up the sand it can't because it's too fat. This allows more hurricanes to form.

I know some of this Global Warming stuff is complicated but that's what I'm here for. I'll now take questions.

Posted by Carl at 10:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

I found this via Digg today - a giant tropical track map showing all of the storms that formed worldwide over twenty years from 1985 to 2005. They're color-coded according to strength, so you can get a good sense of where storms form - and where the powerful ones form - just at a glance. It's an amazing map though, make sure to click through to see the full-sized version. As long as you're not on dial-up, or you may self-immolate. (Or at least your modem might.)

Link to Wikimedia Article on Global tropical cyclone tracks
Direct link to High-Res graphic file (About 6 megs)

Posted by Carl at 1:42 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

This interesting tree ring article comes from the National Geographic. Apparently researchers from the University of Tennessee in Knoxville have determined that rain from hurricanes contains a special type of oxygen isotope. You can read the article to better understand why that is; I tried to figure it out and all I came up with was that hurricanes spin so powerfully that they lose a lot of things, like their wallets, loose change, combs, and sometimes even their car keys. This relates to the whole oxygen thing in some way.

In any event, these special oxygen isotopes, code named "18" fall out of the storm early and get sucked up into Conifers. The Conifers use the 18 to create new cellulose, which makes them look really bad in that bathing suit.

So what's the net effect here? Researchers can now collect tree ring data and examine it for this special oxygen and determine how many hurricanes struck that area, going back 220 years. This is huge because our current technological hurricane record goes back 60 years, and a little more than that based on newspaper clippings, ship's logs and elves. Being able to collect more of this data may give us an idea of what hurricane intensity was like in the past, and from there we can draw conclusions about how global warming is in fact going to kill us all. Or something.

And finally, I would be remiss if I didn't point out the nominee for The Best Name of a NOAA Employee: Christopher Landsea.

Update: The Weather Guys do a great job of explaining this, although they don't mention elves.

Posted by Carl at 9:44 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The tropics have gotten busy, although the U.S. coast remains relatively safe. Florence is on track to brush Canada. Gordon graduated to hurricane status but is widely expected to curve out into the vast unknown of the Atlantic, a harm to no one except the secret base of Atlanteans out there.

A storm with some potential, if you would call it that, is TD 8. It's waaaaay out there but should strengthen as early as today into Tropical Storm (dramatic music) Helene. To me, Helene sounds like a formidable name, like a Katrina or Carol, but then again I thought Fat Momma would be gone in two shows so you know what I know. Models take the storm west for at least five days without recurving, so it may be one to watch.

If feels, though, as if the hurricane season is over. The weather in Happy Valley is overcast, damp and very cool, and it feels like late autumn. I even heard Henry was dusting off the snow blower.

Posted by Carl at 9:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

TD7 has been declared by the NHC, you can find a position graphic here from AccuWeather.com. Most models have the storm curving much like Florence - although at least one takes it close to Bermuda this weekend. (Model run.)

It's thought that this storm could be over its depression by Monday and would become Tropical Storm Gordon.

Posted by Carl at 1:15 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Godzilla sightings notwithstanding, Bermuda is getting ready for a visit from Florence. According to "weather experts" Florence should make her closest pass around tomorrow at 10 a.m. (not certain if this is Bermuda time or Universal Constant Time) 40 miles to the west-northeast of the island. That's better than a direct hit, obviously, but not as good as a pass to the east. The size and strength of Florence is a concern too, with the storm expected to be a Category 2 and at least 40 nautical miles in diameter. (To review, a nautical mile is how far Godzilla can swim in an hour.)

Our prayers are with everyone on the island.

Posted by Carl at 10:09 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Nice map courtesy Google. I've never studied the island in any great detail; it looks amazing. It also looks very thin and flat...

Here are a few other links:
CIA Factbook on Bermuda (Population 65,773)
Wikipedia Entry on Bermuda (I didn't know the island belonged to the U.K. - so much for my application to Jeopardy!)

Posted by Carl at 9:48 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here are AccuWeather.com's and the NHC's tracks:

Obviously this makes a huge difference to some of our Canadian Friends. Most models also take the storm out to sea. Although it's generally accepted that it will miss the U.S., Florence is likely to cause high tides and the dreaded rip currents.

UPDATE: Alert Reader Carol rightly comments "...Bermuda is right in Florence's path." You can find the Royal Gazette website here and the Bermuda Weather service website here. They have a webcam here.

Posted by Carl at 11:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

That's probably the biggest question today - will Florence recurve or sock it to someone on the east coast? The storm has plenty of warm water and favorable conditions to strengthen, and AccuWeather.com is predicting it hits Cat 3 by the weekend. Models seem to suggest that the Anti-Hurricane Machine that the U.S. Government has been secretly working on is going to do its job. Stay tuned... and just in case, if you live on the east coast, make sure your stock of SpaghettiOs is replenished.

Posted by Carl at 3:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

U.S. and French researchers are working together on new effort to better track and diagnose hurricane development in the Atlantic. I'm not making that up. As you know, France has suffered from at least a dozen different tropical storms/hurricanes in the last two decades, with Hurricane Pierre bringing widespread flooding to the Bordeaux area in '89. Okay, that part I made up.

The Balloon Project involves dropping almost 300 "instrument packages" over parts of Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. I'm not making that up. After the balloons are launched they will drift from Africa towards the Caribbean at heights of 65,000-70,000 feet, where hurricanes often hide before diving down into the water and spinning towards land. Apparently twice each day these balloons will release a small instrument package, complete with a monkey wearing a parachute. As the monkey falls through the atmosphere the instrument will gather statistics like temperature, pressure, wind speed, and how loudly and often the monkey yells "Ahhhhhhhhhh I'm going to diiiiieeeeeee!" (In monkey-talk, of course.)

The article really doesn't explain what happens to the monkey after it pulls its chute. I'm going to theorize here that the monkey will drift slowly to the water, and then it will have to do the backstroke. Or, the instrument package has a little beacon that tells the French where they need to go to pick up the monkey.

It's thought that these balloons will give scientists a new insight into tropical weather formation in a part of the world that it is difficult to fly planes into, mostly because it's on the other side of the Atlantic and the French don't have any airplanes.

If the experiment is a success, the next step will be to upgrade from Monkeys to Clowns, and then (if funding doesn't dry up) - Mimes.

Posted by Carl at 7:33 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's the latest Ernesto tracks from AccuWeather.com and the NHC:

They're both in agreement on the path of the storm, although the speed is very different. AccuWeather.com's track is about two days slower, which I'm guessing could mean a huge different in flooding, impact on holiday travel, etc. It appears that the Move-In Day/Football Game draw is too powerful for Ernesto to ignore.

Posted by Carl at 9:11 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC has an amazing track for Ernesto, which differs greatly from AccuWeather's. Below is the NHC track:

On the surface, this may seem like a Silly Storm Track. It would seem silly, because it puts the storm (as a tropical depression) pretty much in State College, Pennsylvania at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday. I mean, what self-respecting storm would go to State College, Pennsylvania?

However this weekend is special, for three reasons:

1. It's the Labor Day Holiday Weekend
2. It's "Move-In Day" - the day Penn State students descend on Happy Valley for the start of classes
3. And finally, in what can only be called a "Brilliant Planning Stratagem" it is also the Nittany Lions opening football game at - you guessed it - 3:30 p.m.

All of these things together make it almost certain that a storm would gravitate this way. However, AccuWeather.com's track is a bit different:

So there you have it - State College, PA or Cape Hatteras, NC. Whose forecast will reign supreme?

Posted by Carl at 9:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

Where'd he get THAT idea?

Posted by Carl at 10:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Okay, not really. But if you look at these tracks over time you have to wonder if anyone knows where Ernesto is headed:

Not to pick on the NHC or anything; everyone's tracks, including all of the computer models, were this uncertain. Right now it looks like Tampa and all of those folks trying to get in their last week of summer vacation at Disney World are the big "winners." And speaking of Disney World, it may be that the lack of tropical activity this year is directly related to my complete lack of Disney Vacation Plan-age. You'll remember last year we had planned a September vacation that kept getting moved back because of hurricanes. We eventually went in late October and were literally chased out of Orlando by Wilma. (But otherwise the weather was great.)

It may be that without Schaads to chase the tropics are simply depressed and demotivated. A heads up for all of you snow lovers though: I'd like to go down and visit Mickey and give my condolences to Pluto (a severe Groan Watch is in effect) this December, although financially that's looking very unlikely. But I'll be sure to warn everyone should a trip occur. You can borrow Henry's snow-blower.

Posted by Carl at 3:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Not yet, but Ernesto seems to be heading towards a certain Louisiana City:

You can find these maps in more detail here:
AccuWeather | NHC | SFWMD

AccuWeather appears to be taking Ernesto west of New Orleans, but the NHC and many of the models are lining up with the Big Easy. Of course this is a nightmare scenario - even if the levees hold, the rain, storm surge and possible tornadoes would cause havoc with the FEMA trailers and all of the debris that sill exists in areas hit by Katrina last year. I'm not in the office today (it IS Saturday, after all) so I'm curious what the meteorology is behind AccuWeather's graphic which has the storm as a "3" in the Gulf and a "2" at landfall. There's usually weakening of these storms at landfall, but there's an awful lot of warm Gulf water in between the two. I'll have to check on Monday.

Although it's not time to panic, it probably will be soon. Get all of your panic preparations ready so that when the time to panic comes, you'll be ready to go.

UPDATE: Models and the NHC continue to shift around, moving generally east. I won't be able to post updated maps with every model run, so stay tuned to the AccuWeather hurricane center and other sources.

Posted by Carl at 2:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Tropical Storm Ernesto has arrived. Ernesto was born at 5pm, near Latitude 14.3 North and Longitude 67.6 West which is about 300 miles SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico and 660 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica. Ernesto is 29.65 inches in central pressure and weighs in at Extremely Very Heavy. The NHC announced Ernesto's birth while the author was eating a Tour of Italy at the Olive Garden that was entirely too large for one human being, no matter how hungry, to eat. The author did, however, give it his best shot.

The name Ernesto is apparently the "Italian, Spanish and Portuguese form" of Ernest. The name Ernest is derived from the Germanic eornost meaning "seriousness". (See also earnest.) The name was used in the title of a play and movie, "The Importance of Being Earnest," which I haven't seen but after some research I gather that it's about someone named Earnest and how important it is for them to be... so.

Ernesto appears to be on trajectory for mischief. Here's a map roundup:

You can find these maps in more detail here:
AccuWeather | NHC | SFWMD

Hopefully we've all learned our lesson and home owners in the Gulf have reinforced their structures with Ubiquitous* Alacrity**. I've been told that stuff is amazingly strong - we actually considered getting Alacrity countertops for our kitchen at one point, but the nice ones are really expensive.

So where does Ernesto end up? The models, NHC and AccuWeather seem to agree that it's in the middle of the Gulf by Wed/Thur a.m. Based on it's track up to that point, I would guess somewhere in Houston. But...that's only a guess. Even Joe Bastardi isn't saying yet. Stay tuned...

*For Angie.

**For Sara. I'm pretty sure I used that right. Some of these words are tricky!

Posted by Carl at 8:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Forecasters and Media Types today were agog over a particulary surly "system of showers" located somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. An ensuing frenzied rush to find a meteorologist ended at an NWS office in Drymouth, Florida. There, Official Weather People speculated on this new tropical menace:

"It's very possible that with a few weeks, warmer-than-normal water temperatures, and a Lack of Sheer, this surly shower could develop into a thunderstorm," commented an Official Weather Person, in between bites of a Subway sub.

As everyone from Maine to Brownsville, Texas, knows, once you have a thunderstorm over the Atlantic Ocean it's a very short leap to a severe thunderstorm, then a tropical wave, then a tropical depression, then a tropical storm and then YES A KILLER HURRICANE.

Residents of the coastal United States are advised to start boarding up their homes immediately, and evacuate 300-400 miles inland. Stay tuned to this, and every single other media outlet, for ten minute updates.

Posted by Carl at 3:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

First, a shout-out to Alert Reader and Blog Wizard James for helping me with my acute case of blogitis. It turns out that it wasn't blog envy that was causing the problems. Apparently my blog was hit by Red Kryptonite* which affects it in strange and unusual ways. I think it's all straightened out now - but if you see anything weird let me know

I wanted to post a quick note about this article which claims that the Atlantic 2006 Hurricane Season is actually below normal now. Just amazing. I'm sure the JM must be besides themselves, trying to get the Russian Made Cold War Era Weather Machine fixed. They probably shouldn't have set it to "11" last year.

I'm looking forward to the end of the season and seeing how everyone's predictions compare with reality. I'm also curious how this impacts current global warming theory. I think that if it would be an above average season, global warming would be to blame. However, if the season actually turns out to be below average, then global warming would be to blame.

(Please note: The image at right has been inserted here to break up the text and give this posting a visual element. If you squint really hard, from across the room, it sorta looks like there's a hurricane way in the back on the left there. Also, this could be Florida. AND, there's probably another Russian-Made Cold War Era Weather Machine buried under the sand there.)

* No, the other doomed planet Krypton.

Posted by Carl at 6:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Probably not. But the GFS model run today has either a Monster Northeast Apocalyptic Hurricane headed for Long Island, OR Godzilla headed for Long Island. It's tough to guess which would be worse. I'm thinking that Godzilla would be like a Category 4 storm. But the amusement factor of watching Anderson Cooper and Geraldo Rivera cover Godzilla's landfall would be huge.

Elliot Abrams at AccuWeather has a great, and temperate, discussion on the models in question. You can find it here. If this actually DOES come to pass, people who would be in the path of the monster storm/Godzilla should consider that they have two weeks to prepare. Assuming, you know, that you haven't already prepared.

Posted by Carl at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

I was doing some research on the "eerie quiet" of the hurricane season so far. I confess that had I come up empty, even though I'd been searching the Internet for over 13 hours straight. I tried "Atlantic Hurricane Season," "East Pacific Hurricane Season," "Missing Hurricanes," "Places to Look If You've Lost A Hurricane," "Hurricanes, Bigfoot and the Bermuda Triangle," and a host of other searches. But then I had what must have been some sort of divine brainstorm and tried "Russian-Made Cold War Era Weather Machine" + "Japanese Mafia" + "Parts Needed" and found this.

Well, I guess that explains that. Once they determine I'm on to them, I'm sure it will disappear. I have a screen capture for proof.

(Please note: The image at right has been inserted here to break up the text and give this posting a visual element. If you squint really hard, from across the room, it sorta looks like there's a hurricane way in the back on the left there. Also, this could be Florida. AND, there's probably another Russian-Made Cold War Era Weather Machine buried under the sand there.)

Posted by Carl at 10:44 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I've received thousands of emails today from concerned residents of the Caribbean thanking me for my previous Chris post. I think it was about fourteen minutes after my post that Chris completely fell apart. Personally I must say that I'm more than happy to destroy these storms. I'm sure this must frustrate the JM to no end, but you do what you have to do.

AccuWeather has changed their track and intensity:

The track is now farther south, matching what the NHC has. The strength is also considerably lessened; AccuWeather has a tropical storm, and the NHC has gone down again to a Tropical Depression.

I think it still bears watching in the Gulf. Floridians can let their pets and elders out of the home again.

Posted by Carl at 9:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Current Mood:

I'm grumpy tonight because I called One Touch about my son's InDuo blood sugar meter/insulin doser. The insulin doser is going bad as the electronic display is starting to lose some of those lines that make up the numbers. So instead of seeing this:

He'll get something like this:

Needless to say, that's not really a good thing. The doser clicks as you dial up each unit of insulin, but I would rather he have something that works. So I called - One Touch has been very helpful in the past - thinking that I could get a new meter and a new doser. (I had problems with my own InDuo before and knew from my own call that they no longer make the InDuo.) Well I found out that instead of providing a free doser replacement via Novo Nordisk, NN will now send you a "refund" and you have to find a doser yourself. I spent about 20 minutes searching online and can't find anything, although I'm told that they're available from most pharmacies. With hundreds of dollars of insulin in storage downstairs, it's pretty important to find the right doser. Hopefully I'll have better luck tomorrow at the "brick and mortars."

Chris forecasting has taken an interesting turn. The NHC has it moving more south than their earlier track, which takes it right through the islands. (Link) AccuWeather still has it heading through the uprights for a goal, as you can see below:

This track seems to be taking Chris towards the southern tip of Texas (Hello, Brownsville) which would keep Albuquerque* safe unless it makes four left turns at some point. And not only is there a track difference, but by Monday AccuWeather is saying it will be a cat 1-2 hurricane, while the NHC has it as a tropical storm. Whose Forecast will Reign Supreme? Stay tuned...

*One down!

Posted by Carl at 12:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Both AccuWeather.com and the NHC appear to be taking Chris through the Caribbean and into the Gulf. (AccuWeather.com track and NHC track at right.) You can find the AccuWeather.com Forecast Storm Path here and all of the Chris information here. The worry I would have about Chris moving into the Gulf would be explosive development. And there's a lot of water between Cuba and Galveston. As always, everyone along the coast should have their plans and supplies ready.

Posted by Carl at 9:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

CNBC weighs in on what was essentially (IMO) an AccuWeather story, although at the time AccuWeather was scoffed at, receiving a jeering not unlike that which King Arthur received from the French in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

You can read what they have to say here.

On a completely unrelated note, this header (from the above article) is way over the top. I mean, I know we're all scared to death and can hardly work up the courage to leave the house between June and October, but - do you really have to rub our faces in it?

Posted by Carl at 9:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC declared Chris an official storm. The AccuWeather.com track has it headed towards south Florida, but shouldn't reach there until late in the weekend/early next week. So far no one is predicting death and destruction, because upper-level features aren't favorable for development.

Chris strikes me as one of those names that could develop into a severe hurricane. Fabio, on the other hand, really wouldn't scare me too much.

Everyone from Florida to Baha California, and from Florida to Nova Scotia, should print out their hurricane tracking maps and pay careful attention to Chris. Panicking is also recommended, but since it's early you shouldn't anything more than tie your patio furniture down with three hundred Bungee cords and cut all of the limbs off every tree in your yard.

Posted by Carl at 9:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather was somewhat derided when, before the start of the hurricane season, they said that a northeast U.S. hit was more likely this year and that people should prepare. Of course, the preparation point was that EVERYONE at risk should take appropriate preparation steps, but that the northeast was particularly vulnerable because very few people had any hurricane supplies or plans at all.

The AccuWeather.com story is here, and "the" graphic is here.

Now, CBS Evening News has weighed in on an interesting story, which you can find here, that states:

A major northeast hurricane is nearly three times more likely this year thanks to favorable weather conditions, including the position of the Bermuda High. Last year it pushed storms southwest. Now it's set to steer hurricanes up the East Coast.

"Northern hurricanes move two to three times faster than southern hurricanes, so they're gonna be here much sooner," Coastal Geologist Nicholas Coch told Miller. "So a hurricane that is off the coast of Charleston will be here in eight hours. That fast."

Whether it happens this year, or next, or whenever, now is the time to prepare. When something is in the forecast is NOT the time to try and "get down to Lowe's" to get what you need, or to make a plan for getting out of a city.

Posted by Carl at 3:35 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Tropical Storm Beryl, not to be confused with the mineral of the same name, is apparently responsible for driving large numbers of Jellyfish Mafia into the waters of Carolina Beach, where they float up to unsuspecting swimmers and ask them for pocket change. If the swimmer doesn't have any pocket change handy, which is sometimes the case when you're swimming, they then sting the swimmer and take bets on whether the swimmer will make it back to shore, or choke on sea water while they're screaming in pain.

How do you treat the pain while waiting for Health Professionals to come to your aid?

Pee pee.

Article here.

Posted by Carl at 10:07 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I haven't had much to say on Beryl because I've been crazy busy with several top secret projects that I could tell you all about but then...well, you know. I noticed today that the USA Today Weather Guys talked about the name Beryl which is not the media onslaught I had expected when I tried to get my Beryl post in early (Beryl - best storm name ever?) but Doyle raises some interesting points I hadn't considered.

It looks like she's headed towards Cape Cod, which technically is in the northeast which is one of the areas that AccuWeather has stressed will be under the gun this year.

Posted by Carl at 2:01 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Probably not, but the NOGAPS model below is pretty interesting:

The T=144h means Time = 144 hours. 144 hours from now is about six days. The map was run at 12Z, Z being Zulu time. The eastern time zone is currently off Zulu by four hours, meaning that this map was run somewhere between midnight and 8 pm. (12Z should be 8 a.m. but I'm sure I'm doing something wrong in there. I can't even set the time on my VCR.

In any event, if you look at the run of the NOGAPS, you see something pop up out of no where and head for the northeast:

Obviously this would be a big ticket news item, but it's only one model, and the NOGAPS at that. (Remember to insert some joke here about the NOGAPS not being able to hit a barn, or forecast its way out of a paper bag, or something later.)

In the interest of not driving you crazy, the above tiny map only animates a few time. If you miss it, just reload the page...

Posted by Carl at 9:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

I was reading up on "Beryl" so that I could be completely prepared for the next bout of tropical hysteria. I also wanted to be on record as having written about something that everyone else will be writing about when they think of it. (Which they won't until the storm gets here. Ha!) In any event, I found that Beryl might just be one of the most appropriate names for a tropical storm I've come across. (I still like my hurricane name list, with suggestions like "Obliterator" but no one seems to be taking that seriously. At all. Not a single phone call yet, even.)

First, Beryl is a mineral - I knew this because as a kid I had all of those educational "rocks and minerals" books and I just devoured them. I didn't want to be a mineralogist at the time, because I didn't know there was such a thing. (I mostly looked at the pictures in the books.) I did want to be a gold panner, because I figured you would put on your big, black boots (for stomping snakes) and go down to the stream, where you would dip your pan in the water and pull it out again, revealing gleaming chunks of gold the size of your liver. I eventually found out that it wasn't so easy. And that the snakes usually got you before you had a chance to stomp them.

Beryl's chemical formula is Be3Al2Si6O18. Sadly I know what most of that means; I say sadly because those are otherwise decent, sound brain cells that now will never have the chance to do anything useful, like memorize the starting roster of the '74 Mets.

Anyway, if you take those letters in that chemical formula you can rearrange them to spell a bise lo, which is actually gaelic for "the yam of great size." But that's not one of the interesting things I discovered.

The first interesting thing that I discovered is that the name Beryl is taken from the Greek beryllos which many websites say means "precious blue-green color of sea water." Sea Water! Get it? Well, I thought that was neat.

The second interesting thing that I discovered is that Beryl is also the name of Beryl Markham. Beryl Markham was born Beryl Clutterbuck and, as you can imagine, she was extremely keen to get married. But the neat thing was that Beryl was the first person to fly the Atlantic Ocean solo, non-stop, from east to west in 1936. (Amelia flew west to east in 1932, five years after Charles flew it in 1927.) The Atlantic Ocean! Get it?

So here we have a name - Beryl - which is taken from the Greek meaning "precious blue-green color of sea water" (Sea Water!) and was the name of the first woman to fly the Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic Ocean!) from east to west. Now the name is being used for the next tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean - and ocean, I need not remind you, which is a precious blue-green color. Hmm. Dismissed as chance?

Posted by Carl at 1:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

According to Carl's Catastrophic Calamity Chart, Alberto officially scores a "Level 12" which is "So-So." To quote:

Level 12: So-So - Roads are wet and large puddles have formed. Cars driving by splash roadside reporters. Dedicated on-air talent will seek a busy road with large puddles near the curbs.

I'll summarize the scoring with each storm. So far, there's only one, so this isn't much of a summary (in spite of it being labeled "Summary")

"Summary"
Alberto: Level 12: So-So
On Deck: Beryl

Posted by Carl at 12:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Kudos to Alert Reader Barb for passing along this link. Hurricane Bingo - print your card before Beryl gets here, causing newscasters to "hunker down" and Max Mayfield to look worried. Nice work Jen!

144 Inches of I-Cord

Posted by Carl at 12:28 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The damage reports are pouring in. It's hard to weed through them and get them on the blog. The devastation is just...difficult to comprehend. Here's an example of what I mean:

Steinhatchee, Florida: Multiple reports of unsecured lawn furniture in a "tipped over" state, and in one case a lawn chair blew into a neighbor's yard, crushing several (4) mums. The neighbor came out at the height of the storm and, with fist raised, yelled "Get yer dang chairs OUT OF MY YARD PUNK!" The neighbor was soaked by the tropical storm, and had to get a towel afterwards and to dry himself off.

As I get through the rest of these reports I'll try to post a few more highlights. Maybe. Possibly.

Posted by Carl at 10:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

This is PDC (pretty darn cool.) As a creative director, at least in name, I have a couple of minor suggestions though:

(First, take a look. Okay, good.) (Warning - requires Flash and boy is it LOUD.)

1. Around category two I think we should have some animals walk into the scene and blow away. Maybe a goat, or a penguin. Something small and light but easily recognizable. A wildebeest would work.

2. Add a car or two. Everyone has cars. I would add a nice sports car, maybe red. Ooo - a convertible! Have it blow away at some point.

3. This whole animation is pretty intense. I think around 130 mph we should see someone stick their head out of a window and have a little thought bubble thing pop up with something comical. Like, I don't know, "Flood insurance! D'oh!" That will relieve the tension. Ha ha.

4. The roof coming off is a nice touch, but we should see some things in the house. Maybe a couch, and a TV set. A lot of people have TV sets and they're very attached to them, so seeing a TV in there would, you know, bring it all home in a really powerful way. You could even have a video playing on the tiny TV and that could be some sort of advertising revenue.

5. The storm surge at the end, with everything floating away, is great. I would consider having various ocean things come in, so you really understand it's a storm surge. Like big, frothy waves, or a boat, a shark - something like that. Or, just put a big text label that says "Storm Surge Comin'." There, that's fixed.

Honestly, though, this is an amazing depiction of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Pass it around to your friends, especially those that may need a push to get prepared and have a plan ready.

Posted by Carl at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

Alberto is trying very hard to become a hurricane and sneak up on Florida, although should he manage it the storm would only be a minimal category 1. Governor Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency today and urged residents of low-lying coastal areas to evacuate. It's possible that Alberto could create a storm surge of up to 10 feet. Gov. Bush also remarked on the speed of the storm reaching land - given the "official" season began only 12 days ago.

The area that Alberto is headed towards usually dodges the bullet. I think the last major encounter with a storm was Hurricane Alma in 1966. Curiously, Alma was also the first storm of the season that year and hit on June 9, which was the earliest a storm had made U.S. landfall since 1825. Of course, 1966 was a big global warming year, with record sales of Hummers and lots of people leaving their refrigerator doors opened. Thankfully 19 days later John Cusack was born, which was a great thing for Lloyd Dobler fans everywhere.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
ADC (AccuWeather dot com, natch) Alberto Page

Posted by Carl at 12:33 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I just woke up - apparently I went to sleep sometime Saturday afternoon in our new bed. It's like sleeping on a "cloud of air." Unless that's someone else's trademarked phrase, in which case it was like sleeping on a "really expensive mattress."

Alberto graduated from a tropical depression to a tropical storm and is expected to bring rain to Florida, then move up the coast in a desperate (and ultimately futile) attempt to find vacationing Schaads. You can see an eyepath here on AccuWeather's site. A complete write-up can be found here.

If you're in Florida drop me a note, assuming you haven't boarded up, sold the kids and flown to Iowa.

Posted by Carl at 10:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Update here. I'm going to save my witty repartee until this evening, assuming it will continue to get its act together...

Posted by Carl at 12:43 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That sounds really medical, sorry. "Carl, I'm afraid you have Possible Alberto. Use this model spray twice each day..."

I'm not a professional Model Interpreter, but it looks to me like Bigfoot IS in fact real and living in southern Texas. I mean, it looks to me like something is headed to Florida. Which is nice, since they need the rain, as long as it's a modest storm and not some monster. But the timing seems to be somewhere around the Monday-Tuesday frame, which wouldn't give this much of an opportunity to strengthen. Of course, stay glued to the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for the latest.

Posted by Carl at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The above image is taken from the PSU models page, also called the "Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields" page which immediately lets you know it was made by Important Scientists, because I don't even understand that much, let alone the rest of the stuff on the page. You can find it here. The image shows a capture of a specific frame from four different models. These are pretty good models too - the kind you would see in, say, Elle as opposed to Family Circle. Not that I'm busting on Family Circle Models, I'm sure they work hard too and are really swell people.

As you can see, these models are starting to swing into agreement that some Lowe's and Home Depot's in northern Florida are going to get emptied. And see - this is why I love weather forecasting. Weather helps us with critical decisions every day. So any Lowe's or Home Depot employee in northern Florida should call up a friend and say, in a sort of sly manner, "Phil, can you take my shift in three and a half days? Uh, yeah...I've got to clean up my basement. Not for any kind of flood or storm or anything. You can? Great!"

The modeling on this storm is still young in the process - later than having Just Been Born, but earlier than Ready For Eating Peas. Since we're all so in tune with hurricanes this year just ask the mailman or office cleaning crew; they probably already know more than all of us.

Also fwiw, the timing of this looks to be somewhere between 84 hours from now and 2,914 hours from now. Give or take.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center

UDPATE 1: Then again, the NHC is not concerned.

UPDATE 2: NHC kinda, sorta, maybe a little concerned.

Posted by Carl at 11:04 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

People are going to be all over these (potential) storms this year, probably weeks in advance. So you won't hear anything here that you haven't heard elsewhere before you get here, like at the water cooler, the grocery store, from Grandma, etc. But above is a model snap for a potential storm that may or may not actually happen sometime in the future. Joe Bastardi is concerned about possible development, and seems to think it's more of an western eastern Gulf thing than a eastern* western Gulf thing. Check with the AccuWeather hurricane center for the latest.

JB on PRO
Hurricane Center at AccuWeather.com

*Note: I had that east/west thing backwards. I think. West is when your hand makes the L-shape, right? Unless you live on the north pole? (Sigh.)

Posted by Carl at 2:03 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A while ago I came across these cool photos of Hurricane Katrina some time ago, and bookmarked them to write about at some future date. The photo above is my favorite. You can find the article and a few other photos here.

Posted by Carl at 10:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

The first tropical storm of the East Pacific season has arrived. Tropical Storm Aletta has formed south of Acapulco, Mexico and is showing up rather well on this satellite image on the AccuWeather.com hurricane center. It's currently forecasted to track north and then bounce off of Mexico and head out to sea. FOXNews has an article here.

The names for the East Pacific Tropical Season are:
Aletta, Bud, Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia, Fabio, Gilma, Hector, Ileana, John, Kristy, Lane, Mirian, Norman, Olivia, Paul, Rosa, Sergio, Tara, Vicente, Willa, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke

Posted by Carl at 12:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

As a Public Blog Service™ I decided to call emergency management agencies in all of the lower 48 and see how preparations are coming for Hurricane Season (which begins officially on June 1 with the cutting of the Hurricane Ribbon in Africa.) Unfortunately, the State of Hurricane Preparation is somewhat mixed.

Now, I'm NOT saying "Everyone Panic!" There will be time for that in two weeks. I'm just trying to point out that the ribbon cutting will be occurring soon and I KNOW some of you are procrastinators (we both know who you are) but increased activity we've seen from the Atlantic, and the vendetta of the J.M., it's really not something to put off.

Posted by Carl at 3:21 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

According to Chuck Watson of Kinetic Analysis Corp., a Savannah, Georgia risk assessment firm, New Orleans "is the U.S. city most likely to be struck by hurricane force winds during the 2006 storm season." Reuters has the article here. Apparently there's a 30% chance it will get hit by a hurricane, and a 10% chance of it being a category 3 or better. Watson worked with University of Central Florida statistics professor Mark Johnson.

They also have some things to say about oil disruption and some other top targets.

UPDATE: PDF of Oil Production Forecast here. Interesting in you're into that sort of thing.

Posted by Carl at 11:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The GFS, which is a computer weather model that stands for either "Global Forecast System" or "Gnome Fondness Syndrome," is showing some sort of Gulf of Mexico weather disturbance which may or may not be a tropical storm or may or may not be a hurricane and may or may not actually happen. Two things are showing up right now; one at 300 hours (~ May 29) headed for New Orleans/Mobile, and one at 330 hours (~ May 30, 31) headed for the Florida Panhandle. Now, before everyone panics and heads to Peoria it's still very early. So, we'll see. But thought you'd like a model heads up.

Keep an eye on the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for news and bulletins.

Posted by Carl at 6:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather has a great article and impact map on the website here. As you can see from the graphic, the Northeast coast (NY, MA, CT, RI,) and the Carolinas are labeled "Very High" risk, and the Texas coast and south Florida are labeled "High" risk. Additionally, AccuWeather is being very specific with a forecast of Six Hits, including five hurricanes (three major - category three or greater) and one tropical storm. The Atlantic Hurricane Season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, Russian Made Cold War Era Weather Machines notwithstanding.

Obviously a hit on the northeast coast in the area that AccuWeather has highlighted would be huge, particularly if it would be a category three or greater, which according to the odds is a good bet (six predicted hits, half of which would be cat 3+.) I think the message to take away here is that everyone should be prepared. If you live on the coast of the Florida panhandle (i.e. "Low" risk) that's no reason to skip buying your bottled water and tickets to Peoria this year.

Posted by Carl at 9:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

(See, I take a few days off and there's too much news to cover.)

JB (AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi) recently spoke to a "room packed with energy executives" (now that sounds like a lively bunch) and predicted that one tropical storm and five hurricanes would hit the nation's coast between now and November (i.e. the entire "normal" hurricane season.) MarketWatch article here. Obviously the energy industry takes a great deal of interest in hurricane predictions, especially after last year. The oil industry is still missing about 22% of its normal production due to hurricane damage.

Posted by Carl at 10:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Scientists at the NHC have created simulations of the havoc a major hurricane - Katrina-sized, if you will - would do if it hit Miami. You can find the article here and some interesting Flash simulations here.

The NHC conducted these simulations for The Miami Herald, so it's natural that this would focus on Miami instead of, say, New York City. But really, if a category four monster hit any major city it would be devastating, as we saw with New Orleans. Geography can make things better or worse, but I think we can all agreed this would be Very Bad anywhere.

I know I'm a little warped, but one of the most interesting things in the article (well, to me) was that the director of Miami-Dade County's building department is named Charles Danger. Now THAT is a cool name. When asked about people who fail to evacuate in the face of a vicious hurricane, who live in extremely tall apartment buildings, he said:

"They will be blown out and you will never find them."

(Given the windows broke and the wind caught them.) Pretty chilling. But, when Danger speaks...

Posted by Carl at 9:34 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Environment Canada meteorologist Dave Phillips had some dire words about the upcoming hurricane season, which everyone is predicting to be a Cataclysm of Biblical Proportions, including Anderson Cooper. Phillips had this to say:

"It's like baking a souffle. A lot of things have to come together and if someone slams the door, it won't rise."

I'm pretty sure that's the last word on the approaching hurricane season. So, bring it on.

Posted by Carl at 9:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I know, I know, this isn't the entire machine. But you have no idea what I went through just to get this photo! It looks a little old - maybe even Cold War Era - but it appears to be one of the dials on the Russian Made Weather Machine. You can see from the photo that the Weather Machine, which as we all know is currently employed by the Japanese Mafia, appears to have several settings, including "La Niña," "Very Dry" and "Florida Cat 6." There's no way to know if there are other dials, what settings they might have, etc. But this demonstrates that anyone in Florida should probably start preparing now for Hurricane Season. Preparation would include storing plywood, stocking up on bottled water and buying your one-way tickets to Peoria.

Right now I'm looking on eBay talking to my confidential sources about the manual to the Weather Machine. We'll see what I turn up.

UPDATE: Alert Reader Susan asks, "Why would a Russian-Made Weather Machine used by the Japanese Mafia have a dial in English (and a little Spanish?)" Well! I don't know what to say. This is a great point. I am DEFINITELY leaving negative feedback for JPNMAFSTOOGE114. I knew the new user icon was trouble but I always get sucked in with the free shipping.

Posted by Carl at 8:08 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Mala actually means "garland of flowers" in Bengali. Although, my Bengali is a little rusty. It definitely means either "garland of flowers" or "a dozen jelly donuts." One or the other.

AccuWeather has a nice sat shot and write up in our hurricane center.

Posted by Carl at 9:40 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Not quite the category 5 monster she was. Article here. Good news for the cyclone-weary in Australia.

Posted by Carl at 10:35 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Australia is having a tough season. Tropical Cyclone Monica, with winds gusting to 220 mph, is headed for Darwin. You can see the well-defined eye in this satellite snap:

Does anyone know if Australia has antagonized the Japanese Mafia lately? Or is the J.M. just warming up the machine?

Links:

BoM Track Map
CNN article on Monica.
ABCNews Online article about evacuations.
Find the latest via Google News here.
AccuWeather.com's Hurricane Center has info here.

Posted by Carl at 12:27 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

There's an interesting article in the New York Times here (may require free registration, I forget) about the strain Texans are feeling, caring for the thousands of evacuees of Hurricane Katrina seven months later. There's been a dramatic rise in the murder rate (the article quotes 30%, 2/3rds of which involved Katrina evacuees as victims or perpetrators) and Texas' own hurricane - Rita - has been lost in the shuffle.

I've heard this thing referred to as "compassion fatigue" - that people's capacity for caring, supporting and providing for others is not inexhaustible. I feel terrible for Rita's victims whose plight is going almost completely unnoticed. If Katrina had not happened, and Rita still had - it certainly would be a different story.

And that brings me to my concern that this year we could have a few more serious hurricane hits - and the victims of '04 and '05 will be forgotten again.

Posted by Carl at 9:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Hurricane Wizard Dr. Gray sat down for an interview with NBC2 News in Orlando and answered some questions from viewers. He was stumped on the first question - what would happen if they ran out of Greek Letters in one season? Of course, I not only predicted this would happen but supplied the answer:

You can find the interview via this page.

(*Predictions courtesy my alter-ego.)

Posted by Carl at 9:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Apparently a routine review of weather data has caused hurricane forecasters to add a 28th storm to last season's total. If you can follow this (and I'm not sure I do,) forecasters were pouring over the data and detected a secret, previously unnoticed subtropical storm near the Azores back in October. The storm has been dubbed "Subtropical Storm Cherry Garcia®" after the Ben and Jerry's flavor of the same name.* No word yet on why this storm went undetected.

In addition, Emily's S.A.T. was adjusted and it turned out she was actually a category five storm for a brief period. This brings the number of category five storms last season to four, which is Completely Unreasonable, and makes Emily the only category five storm to form in July.

Article here.

*Okay, I made that up.

Posted by Carl at 10:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The World Meteorological Organization has retired a record number of names from the 2005 hurricane season:

Dennis has been replaced by Don

Katrina has been replated by Katia
Rita has been replaced by Rina
Stan has been replaced by Sean
Wilma has been replaced by Whitney

You can find a list of retired names prior to 2005 here.

ABC13.com article here.

Posted by Carl at 8:00 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Dr. William Gray, official Hurricane Knight™, has come out with his initial call on the upcoming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 (but we know better, don't we?)

Dr. Gray is calling for 17 named storms, nine of which will graduate to hurricane status. He went on to say that all nine will hit Florida in October. Okay I made that part up, put down the hammer, nails and boards Floridians. Actually he said that the hurricane frenzy of previous years will calm down this year, due to some mysterious force known as "statistics."

You can read more about it here via CNN.

Posted by Carl at 1:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's a short article on the New Orleans recovery, which quotes the Bush Administration's Gulf Coast recovery coordinator Don Powell as saying the complete recovery of the city could take five to 25 years.

No one apparently asked him the obvious follow-up question: how likely is it that New Orleans would be hit again in that time? And the obvious follow-up to that follow-up: Can New Orleans, as a city, survive another hit? That seems unlikely...

Posted by Carl at 1:25 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Glenda has battered and lashed the coast as the category 4 cyclone came ashore. This ABCNews Online article has some good guest-submitted photos and video. It appears (to my untrained layman's eye) that flooding will be the biggest concern. You can find updates on AccuWeather's site here. The BoM has a good forecast track feature and updates here.

Posted by Carl at 2:28 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

You can find a run-down by the Australian BoM here. Gusts are expected to reach 265 kph (164 mph) when the eye hits.

I'm not very familiar with Australia, but this doesn't look like the kind of place that you want a hurricane running ashore. (Link to FlashEarth map.)

Posted by Carl at 2:17 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

NOT Glinda, the good witch, but Glenda, the bad cyclone. She's headed for "Oz" if I can extend my bit of irony. (Why people call Australia "Oz" is beyond me. I get the "Aus" and "Oz" sounding similar thing, but it still strike me as a little weird.)

Here's a story on the cyclone with gusts of 235km/h (146mph) and pushing cat five status. Keep in mind that storms are graded a bit differently in the south Pacific by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Wind gusts are used instead of sustained speeds, and the numbers for each category are a bit lower.

Posted by Carl at 8:24 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I missed this, primarily because of the word "Early" which makes me break out in hives. But Joe was on the CBS Early Show this past week talking about his hurricane forecast. Did anyone see it or TIVO it? Just curious. He was quoted as saying: