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Main
Just a heads up that a lot of the models are showing some tropical trouble developing in the next week or so. There's still a lot of variance, but I think people from Texas to the Carolinas need to pay close attention. Here are only three model shows that show some impressive storms:
Everyone stay safe! Check out AccuWeather.com for the latest. I'll try to post an occasional update here.
A hurricane Katrina victim is suing the federal government for $3,014,170,389,176,410. That's three quadrillion dollars (and some odd trillions, billions, millions, thousands and I think that last ten dollars is for lunch for four at Hardees.) This article puts that in perspective by explaining that quadrillion dollars dwarfs the U.S. GDP, and a stack of 1 quadrillion pennies would reach Saturn.
It's that last figure I find amazing - that Saturn is 1 quadrillion stacked pennies away. I don't know if that should seem far, or near.
So why is someone suing the government for more money than is probably available in the entire world? It's not because they want to take the money and stack it so they can walk to Saturn.
The suit is part of a larger array of lawsuits contending that the federal government is at fault for the levee breaches in New Orleans, and therefore responsible for all of the resulting damage, loss, and personal grief and suffering. The government has admitted that the levees were not up to standards and that the blame for that lies with them.
Daniel Becnel, Jr., a lawyer who said his clients have filed more than 60,000 claims, said measuring Katrina's devastation in dollars and cents is a nearly impossible task.
"There's no way on earth you can figure it out," he said. "The trauma these people have undergone is unlike anything that has occurred in the history of our country."
While I can never understand what these people have gone through, is this really "unlike anything that has occurred in the history of our country"? I suppose in a specific sense of being a hurricane that wiped out some levees around a city below sea-level I would have to agree. But if Becnel is suggesting there hasn't been worse disasters or horrors in our history - that I find difficult to accept.
Feel free to weigh in with a comment, or perhaps a better suggestion for a lawsuit amount. (What comes after quadrillions?)
Tropical Storm Karen is still quieting winding its way through the Atlantic, going nowhere in a big hurry. AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi thinks that Karen could hold on and eventually make a run for the U.S. Here's an excerpt from his Professional column:
The non-US midday model runs are very exciting indeed, as they are having Karen bust the trough and come west in the wake of the development that occurs early next week and comes north. It is interesting to note the GFS is WEST with the first system into the Gulf and, though taking Karen further west, still has a recurve off the East Coast (a far sight further west than 55 west, though, I think we can agree). However, the Karen west and stronger option is something we have had on the table now since Tuesday and, again, I reference the audience to tracks of past storms that have done this, having to fight the Atlantic trough but, once through, had an open field for mayhem.
Meanwhile, Lorenzo landed in Mexico as a category 1 hurricane. Storms seem to strengthen just off-shore now, like they're trying to get the jump on us...
It looks like I may have spoke too soon; this Model Spray shows that some of the models take Jerry dangerously close to Nanortalik, Greenland:
©AccuWeather.com
Nanortalik is the tenth biggest town in Greenland with 1564 people. I don't think they've had to deal with any Tropical Storms lately, and may be caught unawares. Please forward this blog post to all of your friends in Nanortalik so that they can board up their homes and bring the penguins inside.*
Random Map of Greenland
*Okay, I don't really think that they have penguins in Greenland but penguins are comic gold so I couldn't resist. In reality, they have to bring their polar bears inside. The polar bears have moved south due to Global Warming decreasing their food supply and Nanortalik is the closest town with an Arby's.
Jerry formed off in the Atlantic and isn't expected to do much:
Fortunately Rhode Island is NOT in its path. Of course, all Rhode Islanders should prepare for tropical weather this season, particularly if they live on or near the coast.
Sounds like what you have when you've just come back from a great vacation in the Caribbean. "Well, Carl, you appear to have subtropical depression..."
You can find the latest from the NHC here. They seem to be forecasting Tropical Storm Jerry to go north of New Orleans.
You hate to see tropical weather land anywhere, but New Orleans? Here's hoping the models miss the boat on this one:
Boat Missing Models? Time will tell. Source: sfwmd.gov
No, not by alien stink weapons, but possibly via some sort of tropical trouble. Here's a model spray:
Source: sfwmd.gov
At least three models want to take the storm right into the city. First it has to get into the Gulf though. (Insert sentence about appropriate preparation here.)
UPDATE: JB, who you can read on the AccuWeather.com PRO site, has this bit to say about this potential storm:
As for the system over Florida, my disagreement is with the U.S. model in taking it too far north too early, which by the way is no day at the beach and may even be a very very ugly scenario. A deepening hurricane hitting New Orleans from the angle forecasted here is a major test of the levies...
He has more to say on his subscription blog. Here's a graphic from AccuWeather.com illustrating the threat:
Threat-illustrating graphic ©AccuWeather.com
Hurricane Katrina, courtesy NOAA
This AFP article via Google reports that the European Conference on Severe Storms has introduced findings that spraying microscopic (i.e very small) dust into hurricanes could reduce their impact. In fact, the study looked specifically at Katrina and concluded that this method could have spared New Orleans "from the devastating power" of Katrina, had it been used.
The AFP article discusses the science behind the method. It's very technical, and in case that sort of thing bores you here's a quick paraphrase: The extremely tiny dust particles (ETDP) are dropped into the storm where they seek out water droplets (WD). Once they've found these water droplets, they eat them, in a process known as Dusteatstwaterdroplettism. It's a very new science - you can't even find anything on Wikipedia about that yet. Once the dust eats the water it gets fat and heavy and falls to the bottom of the ocean.
My questions is - now that we know how to stop hurricanes, how long after the next storm hits before the lawsuits start to fly? And really, how long has the government known about this and tried to keep it quiet? Let's say a category 5 storm hits Miami (sorry Miami, nothing personal) and all sorts of Hardee's and Taco Bells and Burger Kings are flattened. Do they have a legal case? Break into small groups and discuss. Bonus question: Who will be the first to file a suit?
Apparently Humberto went for some extra credit, as it's now a cateogry 1 hurricane. Hats off to JB who called it. Graphics here. It should weaken over land but rainfall's an issue. Check out the model spray - a number curve it back into the Gulf. Round 2?
TD9* passed its finals and has graduated to tropical storm status.
*Rumors that TD8 has done anything have been greatly exaggerated.
Two more areas of potential tropical trouble. Model runs are available on storm 91 and storm 92. I haven't checked in with AccuWeather.com to see what full story is; that will probably have to wait until I get into work tomorrow...
Here's a quick Gabrielle update courtesy AccuWeather.com. The Apple-ish reflection thing is just a bonus I threw in there.
You can find more up-to-date info on Gabrielle here at AccuWeather.com's hurricane center. For up-to-date information on the sidekick of Xena, I would go to Wikipedia. For up-to-date information on Gabrielle Carteris, who played Andrea Zuckerman on 90210 (c'mon, I KNOW you watched it) you can go here.
Two other notes about Gabrielle tonight:
1. That noise you probably heard today was the collective yaawwwnnn of everyone in eastern North Carolina at the news of Gabrielle being named, and then being called sub, and then having its sub dropped like it had cheese on it or something. There's a great quote in this Sun-Sentinel article:
"When people hear about tropical storms, they assume houses are going to fall in the ocean,'' said Margot Jolly, a lifeguard with Nags Heads Ocean Rescue. "They shouldn't overreact like that. Just relax, stay inside, and have a little hurricane party.''
I expect she's right inasmuch as it won't be a "big deal," but you hate to read about hurricane parties. It always makes me think of Camille.*
2. The Carolinas have been in the midst of a terrible drought, so in that sense the rain will be welcome - although you never want too much at one time. Check out this drought map for North Carolina. Unfortunately, the rain is really needed in the western corner of the state.
*Did the Camille part really happen? Wikipedia has an interesting note on the infamous party here, while the channel about weather has this to say. I guess a question I have is, "Do people stay silent when the existing story puts them in a bad light and they actually didn't do something foolish, or do people stay silent when the existing story puts them in a bad light and they really did do something foolish." I tend to think the latter, but can't dismiss the former. George Clooney was unavailable for comment either way, as he's busy trying to make a living.
The Question of the Day is, if a sub-tropical storm reaches hurricane wind speeds, is it a sub-hurricane then?
The AccuWeather.com track appears to take the storm into North Carolina a little more than most of the model runs. The AP has an interesting run-down on the possibilities here but their sources largely suggest this is a pretty mild event.
The BBC has an amazing slide show of about ten photos on Felix here, including this shot from the AP:
Destroyed homes and trees lay scattered in Sandy Bay, Nicaragua after the eye of Hurricane Felix passed over the area. ©AP Photo/Oscar Navarette
The death toll has risen to 65, although it's expected to rise even further, and tens of thousands are homeless.
Here's an interesting post from Bob King, who talks about AccuWeather.com's prediction of the formation of Gabrielle. As far as I can tell (and with all due respect to Bob) Bob is a staff writer for the Palm Beach Post, although it's possible that he has some sort of meteorological background of which I'm unaware. Of course, you don't need a meteorological background to talk about the weather, or to talk about other people who talk about the weather. My main credential is that I sit next to Henry, and maybe there's some sort of osmosis thing going on...although (and with all due respect to Henry) I think I had a better record on State College snow storms last year because I always said we'd get a rock and for the most part the season was all rocks.
Bob mentions "Gabby" which I guess is "Gabrielle" although giving storms nicknames is probably a bad idea. That would be like talking about hurricane Kat, or hurricane Kitty. (As a total aside: Hurricane Hello Kitty would be interesting.) For AccuWeather.com's part, they're continuing to talk about the storm off the coast becoming tropical. Several models take the storm into the Carolinas and then up the coast. Rhode Island seems to be largely spared.
From JB's PRO Blog today:
I think there is too much going for this to back away and will post my reasons, more like review all the evidence I have as to why I am sticking to my guns.
It is the model that blew up in my face, not the weather (yet) but look, my point of the post was this model had locked on and then lost it, and yes that did mean, Joe, go back and look. But it's not the model that makes the forecast and if it was, why even have humans forecast (it's funny, sometimes I think that is the true agenda behind a lot of things in this business)
Media outlets are beginning to pick up on the possible tropical storm/hurricane/Gabrielle thing in the Atlantic. AccuWeather.com appears committed to the idea:
©AccuWeather.com
Courtesy AccuWeather.com's Magic Eight Ball. It's coming!
WCBS says, "Potential Tropical Storm Could Strike NYC." Of course, everyone talks about a NYC strike as a Very Bad Thing, mostly because there are a lot of people concentrated in a small area, and fleeing quickly to Idaho is more difficult.
NBC17 says, "Tropical Storm Could Be Forming In Atlantic." NBC17 is in Raleigh, N.C., located near AccuWeather.com's suspected landfall for the storm. They call it a "fluid situation" but don't apologize anywhere for the pun, puns being the highest form of humor.
Felix and Henriette are still making headlines. The AP via Philly.com reports that the death toll from Felix is nine, with at least 11 people missing. (This doesn't seem to match what Reuters is reporting, with 38 dead and 80 missing, but who can follow these wire reports.) Henriette meanwhile is moving across Mexico and making a run for the U.S. border and the southwest corner of New Mexico. Heavy rain will be a problem along its track.
Again, I want to point out that all of this discussion, analysis, augury, divination, etc., is useless if it doesn't result in preparation on the part of those at risk of a tropical visit. Make sure you have enough dog and cat food, a good supply of Hostess Twinkies (a golden sponge cake with creamy filling), something to do if the power is out and there's no Internet (I have no idea what that would be, it may involve something called "books") and by all means be prepared to flee to Idaho should circumstances warrant.
The weekend will soon enough show who is right, who is wrong, what computer model scored the coup and who, if anyone, has fled to Idaho.
Check out this image from inside the eye of Felix by Hurricane Hunter Randy Bynon.
This excerpted from Joe Bastardi's blog on AccuWeather.com Professional:
At this time, the stand is at least a cat 2 pressure hit late Saturday or Sunday on the NC coast with a track that takes it near the east coast to Long island later Monday.
I'm just cutting and pasting that verbatim. Joe loves to call 'em as he sees 'em, though, and also added this on his blog:
The threat of this blowing into a cat 3 or 4 is there for a few reasons. one, overall pattern of strong high in northwest atlantic, and reversal of storm from cold core to warm with system with major upper ridge building over it 2) The very warm water in the path. 3) a prolonged time over water...
He goes on to talk about Gaston, who I thought was in Beauty and the Beast, but I think he means a different Gaston. For all of the gory details you can subscribe to the Pro service - there's a free trial and everything.
In the meantime, this Model Spray™ still shows a good bit of uncertainty:
But the Canadian model, which we all lovingly refer to as the Uncle Fester of weather models, has some kind of apocalyptic storm:
The moral here, of course, is that when you live on or near the coast during hurricane season you need to be prepared. Buy your supplies, check the batteries, fill the car up with gas, get the boards handy - and run like mad to Idaho.
There's a number of interesting stories today relating to hurricanes and tropical weather. Not the least of which is Felix, which slammed into Nicaragua's coast as a category 5 storm. (This would be the first year two category five storms made landfall, I believe.) In addition to that record, Felix made landfall the same time as hurricane Henriette in the east Pacific (landing on the Cabos resorts of Baja California.) This is believed to be the first time that an Atlantic and East Pacific storm have made landfall on the same day. (Although Andrew and Lester hit within several hours of each other. Jesse will probably have more on this.)
Felix weakened quickly after hitting land, but the there's still a rainfall threat particularly over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The area hit by Felix is relatively remote, and it may be a while before we have a clear picture of what has happened. Nicaragua moved 12,000 people before the storm, and Honduras evacuated 5,000 residents and 3,000 tourists.
Felix round-up from Google News
The hurricane forecasting team of William Gray and Phil Klotzbach are still calling for more storms. They've downgraded their total by one, predicting six more storms which would be an above-average season. Of course, we're only on "F" and have set a few records.
And Canada of all places is being warned to be ready for a stormy autumn. Of course that's eastern Canada. The Canadian Hurricane Centre says that conditions are right for a busy end to the season for that country. They may be looking at the models calling for a storm to form off the east coast of the U.S. and (some models say) move north.
Felix actually strengthen overnight and made landfall as a category 5 storm on the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. It's expected to have an 18' storm surge and produce 5-10 inches of rain, with up to 20 inches in the mountains. Here's a current sat shot:
Satellite Image courtesy George Clooney, Inc.
I'm definitely hurricane'd-out but wanted to post a few more thoughts before the evening is over. KHOU has an interesting article about the Honduran community in Houston and Hurricane Mitch. I think it's behind a free registration wall (I'm signed up with just about every one of these sites so it's hard to tell sometimes.) Here's the link. A brief quote:
In the Honduran community, disaster means just one thing: Hurricane Mitch.
Memories of the killer storm are still fresh.
Reminders are still visible every day.
“Honduras people has still not recovered from Hurricane Mitch. They still living in huts.” LoveFM, which is a national radio station in Belize, has put together a Hurricane Felix page here. In addition to news it looks like they're going to pass along photos of Felix via Flickr. They have a NEMO update (no, not the fish) posted.
Lastly, it's possible the U.S. may be dealing with a tropical threat soon. The Model Spray™ is all over the, ah, map as it were. This is what it looks like at the moment:
Here's a comparison of the tracks of Mitch in '98 and Felix:
I assume Mitch moved slower and that was part of the reason for the high rainfall rates. The NHC has Felix moving through Honduras in about 24 hours.
The latest NHC advisory has Felix as a category 4 storm, with winds of 145 mph and gusts to 165.
Authorities in Honduras and Nicaragua and not mincing words about Hurricane Felix as they told coastal residents to 'flee for their lives' according to this IOL article. The storm is raising the specter of a Mitch-like disaster. Hurricane Mitch was the slow-moving 1998 category five storm that dropped up to 75 inches of rain (according to some unofficial reports) on parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. 11,000 people died and 8,000 were left missing by the end of 1998 - the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane in history.
The IOL article goes on to mention that one of the NOAA planes flying into Felix had to turn back because of a "rapid updraft-downdraft cycle" that put four Gs on the plane.
I mentioned here that it seemed like Felix had intensified from 0 to category 5 fairly quickly. Dr. Jeff Masters at the WunderBlog says the following:
Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression.
You can read his post here. I'm still checking with the folks on AccuWeather about the intensification, but I have no reason to doubt what Masters writes here. I imagine that Wilma will still hold a record for pressure drop although there may be a footnote on that record now.
This is also the only time since records have been kept that the first two hurricanes of the Atlantic season both went to category 5 - Dean and now Felix. That alone is amazing.
Some other folks following the storm:
Jesse at AccuWeather.com
Brendan Loy for Pajamas Media
Central Florida Hurricane Center
The NHC, AccuWeather.com and various computer models living inside computers have all shifted their track of Felix south. As a result, it seems more likely now that the storm will hit land somewhere in northern Honduras, sparing the Belize coast the full brunt of a category 5 storm. You can find the latest tracks here:
AccuWeather.com
NHC
Model runs
Felix has been upgraded to a Category 5. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports seeing a gigantic irradiated dinosaur somewhere near the eye.
Here's a recent sat shot of Felix. On the left is the unaltered image, on the right I've superimposed a circle over the storm. It's remarkable how symmetrical it is. When you see a storm this round, with an eye this defined you know you have a well-oiled meteorological monster. Sort of like Henry.
Source: NOAA Godzilla Hunters Aircraft
A Record for Felix?
I'm not sure but this storm may have set some sort of record for speed of development. The NHC issued a tropical storm declaration on Saturday September 1, 2007 at 5:00 AM AST (Atlantic Standard Time) and now has called it a Cat 5 on Sunday, September 2, 2007 at 8:00 PM EDT (Eastern). That would be a total of 40 hours or something? If anyone out there can do that math let me know. I'm trying to carry the one and whatnot but it's just not working out.
Update: I can't find any records for Atlantic hurricane intensification beyond the record set in 2005 for Wilma. Wilma dropped 97 millibars in 24 hours, beating Gilbert in 1988 which had dropped 72 millibars in the same time period. Nothing in terms of the elapsed time from depression to category 5. Wilma was a TD on October 15 and category 5 on October 19 - four days or so later.
More: Jesse points to this page which discusses the Wilma pressure drop. I remember the Schaads were in Disney World when Wilma formed - we woke up the next day and checked the news and it had gone from nothing to a category five that might hit Orlando. I've uploaded the Disney Vacation Blog to commemorate the occasion.
Not the fish, but the National Emergency Management Organization of Belize. Here's part of their statement:
On the advice and direction of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) regarding the potential threat posed to the country of Belize by Hurricane Felix, the Ministry of Education informs General Managers, principals, teachers, students and parents of its decision to delay the re-opening of ALL primary schools countrywide. This delay will remain in effect pending further advice and direction from NEMO.
You can find all of the statement here. The Model Spray™, NHC and AccuWeather.com tracks show the storm making landfall in Belize somewhere, and further strengthening is likely.
Felix has been upgraded to a category 4 storm. Here's an impressive shot of the storm courtesy NOAA. I think you can see Anderson Cooper waving from in there, if you squint just so.
NOAA satellite courtesy the aliens orbiting in low earth orbit
Here's some detail on how Aruba fared during the pass of the storm.
AccuWeather.com track forecasting Felix to reach Cat 5 before following Dean's track into the Yucatan.
Alert Reader Chris made mention of Model Spray™ in the comments. The spray on Felix (currently a Cat 3) isn't terribly interesting because there's general agreement:
But the next storm, which may or may not be Gabrielle depending on what develops where, is a true "spray:"
You can see that there's not much in the way of model agreement on that storm.
Felix has been upgraded to a Category 1, not to be confused with being updated to a cartoon cat. As an aside, I would be willing to bet that the Felix the Cat Wikipedia entry sees more traffic this month than the last three years combined.
Felix is heading for Aruba, which is a lovely tourist destination but hurricanes generally avoid it because of its southern location, breathtaking views, crystal clear ocean and white sand beaches. Aruban (Arubian? Arubanese?) residents are boarding up and an Anderson Cooper watch is in effect until after the holiday. Here's a fairly recent look at Felix:
Image by NOAA and the American Taxpayer and (probably) George Clooney
There's a great view of Aruba via Google Maps. Here, you can see the giant Arubinian Hurricane Bowls that have been erected to contain the monster storms should one ever stray to the island. I think if you zoom in enough you can see Anderson Cooper waving.
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
Felix was born in the wee hours of the morning. He's expected to travel pretty much along the same path as Dean, as you can see from this model spread courtesy the AccuWeather.com Pro site:
No, sadly that's not the name of the new dance that Carl is learning. We know this because Carl does not possess the dancing gene, not to be confused with Gene Gene the Dancing Machine who was that guy on the Gong Show. Where was I? The Yucatan, thanks.
Below you can see a historic track of Hurricane Dean courtesy AccuWeather.com, and a graphic showing the likely track of T.D. 6, which will probably become "Felix" sometime over the holiday weekend. The tracks look very similar; I'm sure Belize would like a break.
Some of the thinking here at AccuWeather is along the Canadian route - some sort of hit on Florida. We should know by Thursday what sort of development has occurred that might threaten Florida. Assuming that all goes down correctly, Floridians would be looking at a storm this weekend. That gives you about 5-7 days to find old, discarded battleships from which to peal off sheets of metal to cover you home. Or, move to Nampa, Idaho - which incidentally has no hurricane preparedness material on their site - probably a good sign.
That sounds like a great movie title or book title. It probably would be written by Tom Clancy, and the movie would star Morgan Freeman who may or may not be Canadian. In this case I'm actually going to refer to the canadian forecast model, which is commonly called the CMC. I think CMC stands for Canadian Meteorological Centre, which may explain all of this talk about Canadians.
In any event, the Canadian (the model, not Morgan Freeman) goes all nuts with a florida hurricane:
This image was cobbled together from the Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields thing at FSU, which you can find here. I set the animated GIF to run 5 times with a 5 second pause; you'll have to reload it if you want to view it, say, 6 times.
Based on my expert pixel analysis this would be headed straight for Ft. Lauderdale. While it's still early, consider these remarkable "coincidences:"
1. Ft. Lauderdale is known as the "Venice of America." Venice, as we all know, is part of an ancient civilization (Rome) that was destroyed by taxes, open-air buffets and hurricanes.
2. Ft. Lauderdale is an anagram of Dreadful Teal*, and teal is pretty close to blue, the color of hurricanes.
3. It's well known that Tom Clancy's younger brother October** lives in Ft. Lauderdale.
4. Florida, home to Ft. Lauderdale, just juts out there in the water between the very warm Gulf of Mexico and the very warm Atlantic Ocean. Many of the hurricanes that form every year in this region appear in either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean.
5. In order to prevent a panic, Florida Government Officials have said ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about this potential threat. Go ahead, ask them.
So if you live in Ft. Lauderdale what should you do? The Blog Hero would be happy |
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