Alert Reader Chris made mention of Model Spray™ in the comments. The spray on Felix (currently a Cat 3) isn't terribly interesting because there's general agreement:

But the next storm, which may or may not be Gabrielle depending on what develops where, is a true "spray:"

You can see that there's not much in the way of model agreement on that storm.

Posted by Carl at 1:36 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Felix has been upgraded to a Category 1, not to be confused with being updated to a cartoon cat. As an aside, I would be willing to bet that the Felix the Cat Wikipedia entry sees more traffic this month than the last three years combined.

Felix is heading for Aruba, which is a lovely tourist destination but hurricanes generally avoid it because of its southern location, breathtaking views, crystal clear ocean and white sand beaches. Aruban (Arubian? Arubanese?) residents are boarding up and an Anderson Cooper watch is in effect until after the holiday. Here's a fairly recent look at Felix:

There's a great view of Aruba via Google Maps. Here, you can see the giant Arubinian Hurricane Bowls that have been erected to contain the monster storms should one ever stray to the island. I think if you zoom in enough you can see Anderson Cooper waving.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center

Posted by Carl at 9:21 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Felix was born in the wee hours of the morning. He's expected to travel pretty much along the same path as Dean, as you can see from this model spread courtesy the AccuWeather.com Pro site:

Posted by Carl at 11:55 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

No, sadly that's not the name of the new dance that Carl is learning. We know this because Carl does not possess the dancing gene, not to be confused with Gene Gene the Dancing Machine who was that guy on the Gong Show. Where was I? The Yucatan, thanks.

Below you can see a historic track of Hurricane Dean courtesy AccuWeather.com, and a graphic showing the likely track of T.D. 6, which will probably become "Felix" sometime over the holiday weekend. The tracks look very similar; I'm sure Belize would like a break.

Posted by Carl at 9:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I know this seems prescient, but first I reported on the lightning attack in Michigan. Now comes word that lightning strikes have killed 109 people in China during August. 43 others were wounded in various attacks. Official Blame™ is being laid at the feet of Global Warming. No officials would go on record with this blog to discuss whether this is part of a broader offensive by lightning.

Posted by Carl at 11:29 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

It what might be the first attack in a new offensive, lightning struck the National Weather Service building in White Lake Township, MI. The bolt apparently struck yesterday at 6:48 p.m. local time and was responsible for "ripping down radar equipment." No one was hurt in the attack.

Curiously, no National Weather Service Personnel have been quoted on record about the attack, and no one has categorically denied that the government has placed a gag order on meteorologists, forbidding them from speaking publicly.

Repeated calls to the lightning involved have also gone unanswered.

Detroit News Article
Site of the Fierce Attack

Posted by Carl at 1:57 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That sounds like a great movie title or book title. It probably would be written by Tom Clancy, and the movie would star Morgan Freeman who may or may not be Canadian. In this case I'm actually going to refer to the canadian forecast model, which is commonly called the CMC. I think CMC stands for Canadian Meteorological Centre, which may explain all of this talk about Canadians.

In any event, the Canadian (the model, not Morgan Freeman) goes all nuts with a florida hurricane:

This image was cobbled together from the Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields thing at FSU, which you can find here. I set the animated GIF to run 5 times with a 5 second pause; you'll have to reload it if you want to view it, say, 6 times.

Based on my expert pixel analysis this would be headed straight for Ft. Lauderdale. While it's still early, consider these remarkable "coincidences:"

1. Ft. Lauderdale is known as the "Venice of America." Venice, as we all know, is part of an ancient civilization (Rome) that was destroyed by taxes, open-air buffets and hurricanes.

2. Ft. Lauderdale is an anagram of Dreadful Teal*, and teal is pretty close to blue, the color of hurricanes.

3. It's well known that Tom Clancy's younger brother October** lives in Ft. Lauderdale.

4. Florida, home to Ft. Lauderdale, just juts out there in the water between the very warm Gulf of Mexico and the very warm Atlantic Ocean. Many of the hurricanes that form every year in this region appear in either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean.

5. In order to prevent a panic, Florida Government Officials have said ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about this potential threat. Go ahead, ask them.

So if you live in Ft. Lauderdale what should you do? The Blog Hero would be happy to give you free advice but our legal team (Sven) has instead asked that this statement be issued:

The Blog Hero, Blog Hero Inc., Blog Hero Enterprises, employees and family members of Blog Hero are in no way responsible for any use, non-use, thoughtful pre-use or un-non-pre-use of any hurricane information, maps, graphics, data or datum presented on the Blog Hero blog or anywhere else on earth. Any information provided is for entertainment purposes only, but Blog Hero makes no guarantee, formal or informal, applied or air dried, that said non-informative entertainment will be entertaining. Please use or disuse all entertainment at your own risk. Blog Hero does not suggest boarding up your house with sheet metal torn off of old Navy battleships, nor does Blog Hero endorse fleeing the state of Florida for something more inland, say Idaho. Thank you.

Good luck out there!

*It's also an anagram of "Farted La Duel" but after much careful consideration and thought the Blog Hero and representatives thereof have decided not to publish this for fear of alienating members of the audience by writing the word "farted." It should be noted, however, that "Farted La Duel" has now be trademarked by Blog Hero, Inc., because it would make a really great book title. (Dreadful Teal has also be trademarked, and will be an unsuccessful garage band any day now.)

**One of Tom's famous books, The Hunt for Red October, involves the difficult family issues of adoption, line dancing and being sold into a Russian Slave Labor Ring.

Posted by Carl at 10:06 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

One of the computer models, the GFDL, has been targeting the U.S. coast pretty consistently. It's one of the more eastern tracks now, and a recent run (which you can generate for yourself here) has a pretty ugly hit on Louisiana, close to New Orleans, as a borderline category 4/5:

Of course this model is in disagreement with the model consensus, which is much more southern/western.

Posted by Carl at 2:52 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The UKMET and GFDL, not normally "model bedfellows" seem to be pointing to Houston.

AccuWeather's track is currently taking it south of that, for a hit on the south Texas border similar to Emily. We'll see - it's still early. But the GFDL track is scary, with a miss on Yucatan and a hit on the heart of Texas.

Posted by Carl at 9:23 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's the latest model guidance. The plots for Dean have been all over the place, from Mexico to New York. It'll be a few more days before there's a concrete track. Based on what little meteorology I suspect Dean hits somewhere in southern Texas. Of course, my meteorological credentials consist of sitting next to Henry...

Posted by Carl at 2:37 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well, I have to say that the hurricane season so far has surprised me. I think I predicted something like three hundred hurricanes, so unless we get busy here soon I'm probably (probably) going to fall short.

I did a model sweep and didn't see anything too interesting. The Canadian model does have a pretty nice storm crashing into Cape Cod:

But you'll note that's on day 5, which is an eternity away for a computer model. In any event, that would be Monday, so if you're in Cape Cod you've got that long to panic, run to Lowe's, buy wood, nail it to your house, panic, and then go down to the beach and greet Anderson Cooper. Or, you could stay tuned to Jesse's blog, where he'll no doubt post the latest and greatest.

(Model shot courtesy FSU Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields here.) (Say THAT ten times fast.)

UPDATE: Here's JB's thoughts on the Canadian Model:
"The Canadian is not the dangerous racer on the track with its crazy tropical solutions. For the 5th run in a row, it entrains the tropical energy and drives what looks to be a hurricane into New England. For kicks and giggles, it will be on the big dog this morning, but it is certainly not the model du jour when it comes to this and is rapidly becoming the old GFS hurricane somewhere on every run model, something that will kill its longer term operational runs. Speed kills, but so does heat, when it comes to models if its not handled right"

Posted by Carl at 3:35 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Hurricane Chief Bill Proenza - for now?

When asked about the surprise visit Monday night, Proenza would only confirm it and say little else. "I await their finding and, hopefully, their support.''

The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs through November 30.

Posted by Carl at 9:31 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Flickr photo of Barry ©dejay181

The UK Meteorological Office is issuing a first-ever hurricane prediction, calling for only ten more named storms (for a total of 12 this season). This is far than more U.S. groups are calling for, if you recall my earlier chart. The average prediction there is 14.9 storms, although nine-tenths of a storm doesn't sound very bad.

So why the big difference? The UK researchers claim their methodology is "more advanced," using fancy-shmancy computer simulations of the atmosphere and oceans, as opposed to the complex dart-throwing methods of U.S. researchers. The UK researchers claim their computer ("Hal") shows a cooling of ocean waters, which would mean less storm development and the Global Warming heralded End of Everything As We Know It.*

The Atlantic hurricane seasons officially runs through the end of November.

AP Article on British Prediction

*Okay I made that up.

Posted by Carl at 3:18 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

There's two words you probably didn't think you'd see together today. A tropical cyclone (a.k.a. Hurricane) named Gonu is heading for Oman, and then on to Iran. Not only is that fairly unusual, but the cyclone has reached the equivalent strength of a category 5 storm, although it's let off a bit of steam since doing so and is currently category 4. (Still the strongest in that area of the world in modern history.)

Google News is full of Gonu stories, such as this one. Many of the articles focus on the impact on oil and natural gas. This article has an interesting run-down.

Posted by Carl at 9:21 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC declared the mass of clouds and rain in the gulf Tropical Storm Barry (Manilow). The storm is located southwest of Disney World. As you can see from the following graphic, the storm is headed directly for the Copacabana:

There's no word yet on why Tropical Storm Barry (Manilow) is heading for the Copacabana. However, Blog Hero has it on good authority that music and passion are always the fashion at the Copa. This could explain the storm's movement.

Posted by Carl at 11:30 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Courtesy AccuWeather.com

Posted by Carl at 9:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I mentioned in the earlier Hurricane 2007 post that there are a number of researchers looking at the impending Atlantic Hurricane Season and making public their official guesses carefully considered and researched forecasts. University of Central Florida researcher Mark Johnson and his Georgia colleague Chuck Watson have put together some interesting research based on:

1. Analysis of statistical models of storm paths from the past 155 years
2. Analysis of models using the climate conditions for January through May '07 (that further compute the climate conditions for the rest of the year)
3. A 10-year body of work on probability analyses for hurricanes

The UCF has a press release here about it.

Here's one of the many graphics that they've published:

This study suggests that the Gulf Coast is under the gun, which is similar to AccuWeather.com's conclusion. You'll note, looking at the map above, that Disney World is in the "Much Above Normal" area. They may have gotten wind (sorry) of my possible trip to the Magic Kingdom.

The website of Mark Johnson and Chuck Watson, Watson Technical Consulting, can be found here.

Posted by Carl at 4:23 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Jesse has an interesting post here about the NHC/NOAA/CPC/JM hurricane predictions, and contends that they're basically predicting 10-20 storms this season. Give or take.

And SciGuy Eric Berger, who may or may not have gotten beaten up as a kid for his milk money, has a post here discussing the pre-season predictions. He lets Joe Bastardi have it, stating that Joe's prediction of named storms is "doom and death" and "Bastardi doesn't predict specific numbers." He adds, "His chief currency is fear."

This is interesting because it's almost completely wrong. First, Joe Bastardi (and AccuWeather.com team) have predicted actual numbers - you can read the press release here. The forecast is for 13-14 storms, 3+ being "major" (major meaning that Anderson Cooper will likely be drawn to the coast.)

Given the "Bastardi Number" is actually less than Gray's number, or the upper limit of the NOAA/NHC forecast, why is Bastardi tagged as the "doom and death" guy?

I'll give Mr. Berger the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to a lack of research. Apparently he took a look at the pre-season discussion, not the forecast which was issued later, and drew conclusions from that.

Finally, there's a telling comment in the comments section of the SciGuy's post. It goes like this:

My experience tells me this is exactly the opposite of how it works in the private sector. The AccuWeather team has a number of private clients (and a growing website) that receive our detailed hurricane forecasts. If you accept the "doom and death" fear-mongering position, AccuWeather wouldn't have these clients - the free market would punish any company providing content that was continuously wrong, bad and created for the purpose of inciting fear. Just the opposite is occurring - AccuWeather is growing because the hurricane information is very valuable to the clients AccuWeather serves. I've observed Joe at AccuWeather and he's passionate, works long, insane hours, and put everything into his forecasting - keeping what works and learning from any mistakes. And his clients understand that.

Disclaimer: The Blog Hero, who may or may not work at AccuWeather, would like to say that he has never met the SciGuy, Dr. Gray, Dr. Gray's team, most of NOAA and the NHC. Furthermore, the Blog Hero has never been to Houston, which I'm sure is a delightful city, and has never picked up a copy of the Houston Chronicle to read over a double half-caf decaffinated ginger latte expresso (with cream.) No body builders were harmed in the writing of this post. Thank you.

Posted by Carl at 12:15 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC is out with their predictions, and so I'm updating this previous entry. Here we go:

To review, the names for storms this season in the Atlantic are:
01 Andrea
02 Barry
03 Chantal
04 Dean
05 Erin
06 Felix
07 Gabrielle
08 Humberto
09 Ingrid
10 Jerry
11 Karen
12 Lorenzo
13 Melissa
14 Noel
15 Olga
16 Pablo
17 Rebekah
18 Sebastien
19 Tanya
20 Van
21 Wendy

Carl's Predictions

And finally, here's a poll I'd like everyone to consider taking. Not only will it tally up the yes/no/maybes, but it will plot them on a map. So at the end of the season we can see if they yes people were right, or the no people were right, or some of the yes people were right but all of the no people were wrong, or the Florida people should have packed up and moved to Idaho. You know who you are.

*Andrea notwithstanding since she was a sub tropical storm.

Posted by Carl at 2:29 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather.com has published their hurricane thoughts, including those of Chief Hurricane Guru Joe Bastardi. You can find the hurricane preview here. This graphic sums it up:

This is also the "Carl Wants to go to Disney World This Year" graphic. We've been talking about going this November, and I'll probably have to write a long explanation of why we would go then, but right now our funding is falling a little short. If the funding can somehow come through, then yes, look for 20 named storms this year and for Florida to get pummeled relentlessly, particularly in the late Nov. to early Dec. timeframe.

Posted by Carl at 10:19 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I thought I would run down the hurricane season predictions, since there seem to be a few out there. This will help with your pre-hurricane season stress and panicking. Having this knowledge in advance of any actual hurricanes arriving* will help with all sorts of planning, like how much bottled water to store in your basement, whether or not to get the orange Duck® tape or the silver Duck® tape, whether to brick up those pesky windows once and for all, and maybe even how much anti-anxiety medication you should budget for.

*NOAA's numbers are coming out next week, at which point I will likely update this chart.

To review, the names for storms this season in the Atlantic are:
01 Andrea
02 Barry
03 Chantal
04 Dean
05 Erin
06 Felix
07 Gabrielle
08 Humberto
09 Ingrid
10 Jerry
11 Karen
12 Lorenzo
13 Melissa
14 Noel
15 Olga
16 Pablo
17 Rebekah
18 Sebastien
19 Tanya
20 Van
21 Wendy

I thought I would take my stab at this hurricane prediction thing. If I'm wildly off target no one will remember except both of you reading this. But if my guess is accurate I'll be Official Seer for a Day.

Carl's Predictions

And finally, here's a poll I'd like everyone to consider taking. Not only will it tally up the yes/no/maybes, but it will plot them on a map. So at the end of the season we can see if they yes people were right, or the no people were right, or some of the yes people were right but all of the no people were wrong, or the Florida people should have packed up and moved to Idaho. You know who you are.

*Andrea notwithstanding since she was a sub tropical storm.

Posted by Carl at 12:51 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's an interesting graphic on the smoke situation in Florida from the Tampa Tribune:

You can find the article Smoke From Wildfires To Ease Up here.

Posted by Carl at 9:52 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Update: Subtropical storm to form?

Update 2: From AccuWeather.com: Tropical Storm in Disguise?

Posted by Carl at 10:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Some outlets are referring to the coming northeast, late-April snow storm as "Historic." I've also heard the terms "50-year storm," "100-year storm," "devastating" and "icky." Terms I haven't heard used but wish they were include "ninja-like," "apocalyptic," and "Biblical." (Just to be clear, at this point we're talking about a snow event, no frogs or meteors or anything like that. One model does show locust, but it's a widely derided model and not terribly accurate.)

My nemesis still has an area of 6-25" for central Pennsylvania. But it has shifted north and east a little bit and looks like less of a State College event to me. AccuWeather.com has the following graphic now:

If you look real hard, and kind of squint your eyes, you can make out Centre County. And inside Centre County you'll see a dot for State College, and in that dot you can see me. I'm waving - wave back! Anyway, I think I'm on the line between 1-3" and 3-6".

Other outlets are saying rain and snow with no amounts for snowfall.

Based on all of this I've come to the careful, considered conclusion that no one really knows what's going to happen. If it weren't for Don Imus this storm probably would have been hyped a lot more. As it is, we'll have to go into the weekend in the sorry state of not only not being able to hear Imus anymore* but also having no idea how much bread and milk we really need. Ah well. Anyone traveling in the Satuday night - Monday morning timeframe in the northeast please take extra care and stay tuned to local weather forecasting.

*I really never watched or listened to him, so I don't have much of an opinion. I'm a firm believer in the free market system though, and if advertisers don't want to support the show, it seems perfectly reasonable for his boss to fire him. I really haven't thought through the larger issues of what can and can't be said on the airwaves, what is protected speech and what is not, etc. Feel free to leave a comment on this. When I think about what things a person should say I think of Proverbs 21:23 - "He who guards his mouth and his tongue keeps himself from calamity." Sounds like good advice to me!

Update 1: The NWS is sort of saying in a roundabout, maybe it will, maybe it won't sort of way that we could possibly get 6-12" if it doesn't rain.

Posted by Carl at 2:17 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's the latest graphic from AccuWeather.com. You'll note that I'm in the area that says "Big Snow."

I'm trying to figure out what this "Big Snow" is. I have several questions. For example, "How big is Big?" And...well, okay, that's mostly all of my questions.

Further bulletins as events warrant.

Update 1: Henry says "Big" means 6"-25"

Update 2: Here's what that channel about Weather is saying:

And here's what the NWS is saying, via Weather Underground (Not the radical left self-proclaimed communist group, the weather website)

So AccuWeather is hanging out there, it would appear.

Posted by Carl at 9:22 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Ugh.

There's a lot of buzz around the office today (the AccuWeather office) about a potential monster snow storm this weekend in the northeast. Of course, it's mid-April and these sorts of things are exciting for meteorologists and people who (have to) work with meteorologists, but for the ordinary, common folk - well, we just want to be able to open the windows and wear shorts already.

This past weekend those of us who live in State College (the home of AccuWeather and Penn State University) awoke Easter morning to fields of white. Several inches of snow had fallen, although the sidewalks and roads were spared. Easter should be a time of celebrating dandelions and cherry blossoms and dancing around bulbs that have started poking up through the formerly frozen ground. Not a time for wondering how much salt you have left in the garage, or if you can start the snowblower one more time without hurting yourself.

But here it is - a potential history-making snow storm. I say potential because I'm mostly a regular Joe and know how likely these things are to happen just as the models say. But I also say history-making because I (have to) work with a bunch of meteorologists. Here's one model snap:

Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather.com's Professional site said the following in his latest blog post:

Of course he said that in his own inimicable caps-lock-on way. But he's pretty passionate about the weather. AccuWeather.com has begun to weigh in and has the following graphic:

It will be interesting to watch the forecast unfold in the coming days. I'll try to post updates here; keep AccuWeather.com bookmarked as well. And please don't forget to panic Saturday and rush to the store to buy bread, milk and salt for the driveway one last time. That is, until our May snow storm.

Posted by Carl at 2:03 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

It may be the Year of the Spite Snow, if this AccuWeather.com forecast proves to be correct:

AccuWeather.com Professional Guru Joe Bastardi is also predicting an April cool-down for the east. I suppose we'll see. It may be that Alert Snow-Repeller Tammy has let her guard down, resulting in these late-season forays* by winter.

*Blog Hero cool word of the day! Foray: to ravage in search of spoils (Thanks M-W.com!)

Posted by Carl at 9:32 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I just saw lightning outside. Well, outside in the sky - not like outside in the backyard. Although that might be cool. Here's a radar snapshot:

The really weird thing is we're calling for snow Friday (more spite snow). I'm pretty sure it's that whole global warming thing...

Posted by Carl at 11:57 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Now that winter is over (the exciting, snowy part of winter, which some people report having seen but in State College was, for the most part, hiding behind my neighbor's recycling bin) and the El Niño has faded meteorologists have looked high and low, long and hard to find some sort of weather boogeyman. Okay, I suppose that's not entirely true and I just wanted to type "boogey" but now that I did that I can move on with what I was saying. Boogey boogey boogey.

The current candidate? La Niña! As any fifth grader can tell you, La Niña is the cooling of the equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. This often leads to complete and total disaster on an apocalyptic scale. For one, lots of fish are very disturbed because of the cooler water. This leads to fish flatulence, one of the main contributors of fish-induced global warming.

The other potential problems are increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and droughts in the southwest United States.

You can read about the La Nina here at the OCRegister.

Posted by Carl at 3:07 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Spite Snow: Mostly a Noun. Usually the last snow of the winter season. Total accumulations from a Spite Snow never exceed 4". Spite Snows are often accompanied by extreme cold temperatures, or high winds and wind chills, or both. A Spite Snow will be useless for playing in because it will either be as dry as sawdust from the extreme cold temperatures, or it will be gone in two days by a freak spring warmup that see the temperature raise 40 degrees in 20 hours and an inch of rain fall. Spite Snows are often cited as the cause of irrational behavior in people who love snow but have experienced a far-below-normal snowfall for the season. This irrational behavior can include writing nasty letters to meteorologists who kept predicting snow but never seemed to get it right; spraying graffiti on snow blowers, and mailing chocolate chip cookies to your favorite Blog Hero.

I bring this up because it appears that our Spite Snow is coming:

We appear to be right on the 3-6" edge. This would suggest to me that we'll get less than 3", even though the AccuWeather.com site is calling for 4.2". Based on its timing I would expect school to be cancelled Wednesday morning* although my children, home schooled as they be, will have their regularly scheduled grumbling-whining-moaning learning experience.

*The Blog Hero wishes to state in an emphatic and completely legally responsible way that he does not inform the school district in any way, is not even here and now providing any information to the school district, and will not be responsible for the crushing of the spirits of little boys and girls who want one more day off, even if it will be bone-chilling cold and snow like unto sawdust. Yea, verily - the disclaimer hath ended.

Posted by Carl at 11:32 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I think we only got 6". I might go out and measure it but sleet and ice have probably compressed the total. Perhaps Jesse will drive over here on his snow blower and dig us out.

More later, I have some more toast and milk to consume now that the storm is over.

Posted by Carl at 9:30 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

It appears that a tornado hit New Orleans during some severe weather early Tuesday; 1 person has died, 30 were injured and 20,000 people are without power in LA. There's an AP story here, and CNN has a story and some video coverage here.

Posted by Carl at 2:27 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Phil says "Hi!" from sunny Oswego, NY. (And, "Expect an early spring!")

Posted by Carl at 2:18 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well... "Not so much"

At left is the prediction yesterday from AccuWeather.com, at right is the current (Wednesday) predicition. By the time it gets here I predict we may see a grass-covering 1", if we're "lucky."

Posted by Carl at 2:11 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

"They also move erratically about the lab, rolling around on the floor, bouncing off objects, and burning whatever they touch."

At first I thought this was an article about Henry, as I often see him rolling around on the floor, and bouncing off objects, and moving erratically. He will often burn whatever he touches too, which is a real hassle since I sit next to him and he keeps borrowing my phone book.

But no, this is an article about ball lightning. Wikipedia has a great article on ball lightning, including an old photo of some ball lightning entering a saloon to get a cold, frosty beer. (I'm firmly convinced that Wikipedia is written by aliens; there's really no other explanation.)

In any event, scientists in Brazil may have solved the ball lightning mystery. To review, the mystery is "Where does it come from? What does it want? Why doesn't it just approach our leaders and try to open a peaceful dialog?" The article really doesn't answer all of these questions to my satisfaction. Apparently silicon is involved. As many people know, silicon occurs naturally in, um, nature and since it's so plentiful it could explain how ball lightning forms just about everywhere, including up-scale saloons.

If you have any questions after reading the article feel free to post them in the comments. I've been contacted by ball lightning and may be able to pass along a question or two.

Posted by Carl at 9:56 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Dr. Heidi Cullen and that channel about weather have finally responded to the firestorm that was created with her December 21 blog post. You can find a video here, and her blog response here. Having just posted about language and how choices of words and phrases can say so much, I found the video fascinating.

In the video, Dr. Cullen makes the point that that channel about weather has not chosen a political side in the global warming debate, and that there isn't any sort of political agenda. But the video ends with an ad (which I've screen-captured at right) that states:

"Will Pres. Bush save the polar bears?"

Now, I love polar bears. Some of my best friends are polar bears. In fact, a polar bear pulled me out of burning wreckage when my plane was shot down over 'Nam*. I also love President Bush, who pulled me out of a burning polar bear when I was shot down over the San Diego Zoo back in '86**. But to me, the question "Will Pres. Bush save the polar bears?" is a political question. It speaks to the inherent tension in the global warming debate where policy decisions reflect (to some) priorities on the environment, global warming and polar bears. I haven't watched this particular episode and probably won't, but it's hard to believe there are no politics involved here.

Agree? Disagree? Bored? Want to hear what happened after the polar bears pulled me out of the burning wreckage and took me into their home? Leave a comment!

*Okay, maybe I made that up.

**Okay, not so much.

Blogger's Note: The above comments do not reflect the views of AccuWeather, any particular AccuWeather Meteorologist, that channel about weather, polar bears, aircraft manufacturers or the San Diego Zoo, which actually is a terribly nice place to visit although I wouldn't recommend getting shot down over it particularly over the polar bear exhibit as they're awfully testy about that sort of thing particularly right before feeding, or the Japanese Mafia. Thank you.

Interesting Side Note: Should Side Note be hyphenated? Like Side-Note. I don't think so (Susan?) but if so I apologize to all of the people in the audience who just cringed and sort of shook in an uncontrolled manner. Anyway, my side...note: This page mentions that Dr. Cullen first got a bachelor's degree in Near Eastern religions and history from Juniata College before going on to engineering and operations research and then climate variability. That's an interesting evolution, from Near Eastern religions to climate variability. (Sort of like "anything at all" to "blogger".)

Posted by Carl at 12:51 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Joe Bastardi's column on AccuWeather.com Professional today has this chilling (sorry) warning:

"Two major winter storms from Texas to mid atlantic and New England in period Jan 20-27. Cold continues to deepen nationwide, extreme shot growing more likely week of Jan 30."

You can subscribe to Pro here. Has Alert Reader Tammy's (snow) luck finally run out, or is Carl looking at another bag full of rocks? Only time will tell...

Posted by Carl at 10:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The governator has asked the federal government for disaster aid in the aftermath of four days (nights) of freezing weather, which now is estimated to have caused nearly $1 billion (with a B) dollars in losses to crops, particularly citrus. Hardest hit were oranges, lemons and tangerines. Bananas, which are rumored to be used in the making of banana juice, were apparently spared.

The good news for consumers not directly involved in the industry is that prices aren't expected to spike, although some short-term rise in probably unavoidable. An unnamed spokesperson for the banana industry was quoted as saying, "Now is a GREAT time to get some extra bananas and squeeze your own banana juice."

You can get the details here from this AP article. The photo at right is some wannabe frozen OJ in Modesto, California on Tuesday. (AP Photo by talented AP Photographer Rich Pedroncelli)

Posted by Carl at 9:20 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

If I had to pick between losing oranges and losing bananas, I would probably lose bananas although I enjoy both fruits. You really can't drink bananas* though, so oranges win by a nose (leaf?).

California has experienced a crippling citrus freeze in the last few days. An amazing $700 million dollars worth of fruit has been destroyed, and it's estimated that up to 10,000 jobs may be lost as a result. I've read that 3/4 of the crop may have been lost, but I've also read that 25% of the crop was harvested before the freeze. That would mean (he says, quickly doing the math in a computer-like fashion) that all of the remaining crop was destroyed. Right?

ABC has an article here that also mentions lemons. I really don't care for lemons at all, so I don't feel a lot of pain there although I'm not happy to hear about the economic loss that people experience as a result of these things.

And now, the Rhetorical Question of the Day: If you experience unseasonable high temperatures in the northeast, that's global warming - but if you experience unseasonable low temperatures in the west, is that global warming too? Break up into small groups and discuss.

*If you or someone you know have actually found someone willing to take a normal, decent banana and squeeze it to the point that some sort of banana juice is created, I really don't want to know about that. Some things, like Santa, the Easter Bunny and solid bananas should never be spoiled.

Posted by Carl at 10:33 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That ka-ching sound you hear is the price of oil rising, no doubt.

Posted by Carl at 1:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather.com now offers video that you can embed right in your site. For example:

Here's the video for State College. You'll note that the presenter (Melissa, at least when I posted this - it will always pull the most up-to-date forecast) does NOT mention snow at all. Not a bit. Nope.

If you'd like video on your website, take a look here at the AccuWeather.com NetWeather site.

Posted by Carl at 2:42 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

...in January. Some cherry trees around Washington are blooming. Boy, won't THEY be in for a surprise just as soon as Henry and Jesse get rid of their snow blowers! What? Oh, yeah, I guess so.

Article here. An interesting thing to note about this article - as of this writing, the photo they have of the cherry trees is actually a photo taken by a different AP Photographer, and it's actually a photo from New York. I hate it when that happens.

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin (really!)

Posted by Carl at 11:21 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

(With apologies to Douglas Adams.) Max Mayfield, the former director of the National Hurricane Center, departs his job with a message for the United States (and, especially, southern Florida) - Run! Run for Your Lives!

Okay, I made that up - but his message isn't much different. Max is convinced (despite his otherwise optimistic nature) that we're living on borrowed time and it's inevitable that we're going to see a major hurricane hit a populated area like southern Florida. In fact, this article talks about his "apocalyptic vision" of thousands dead and millions homeless.

I often wonder what would happen if you have a massive storm target southern Florida - because you really have no place to run. You can drive north, but everyone would be driving north, and it wouldn't be hard for a storm to change direction slightly and move north also, trapping everyone on the roads during a category 5. I know, it sounds like a made-for-TV movie, starring Victoria Principal, Brian Dennehy and Nipsey Russell* as the NHC Meteorologist trying (unsuccessfully) to warn everyone in time. But, it's a possibility, at least to Max Mayfield. (I mean, the hurricane not the movie.)

All the best to Max as he leaves the NHC and pursues a more calm life outside of government.

(*I've heard the rumors that Nipsey Russell died in October of 2005 but refuse to believe them. There have been many, many Nipsey sightings since then, the latest and most credible at a IHOP in Tennessee just this past December, although Nipsey was apparently dressed as Santa at the time.)

Posted by Carl at 9:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

For Texas. According to AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi. I think my head will explode. (No offense to the Alert Texans in the audience.) Sigh.

Posted by Carl at 9:19 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

From AccuWeather.com:
State College, PA - Thursday December 14
High: 55 °F Fog in the morning; otherwise, periods of sun with the temperature near the record of 57 set in 2001

Posted by Carl at 1:14 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

My AccuWeather Nemesis, Henry, has a new video experiment underway. The really disturbing part is that he's using an iSight camera hooked to his laptop, so he's actually filming at his desk, which is right next to my desk. In fact, you can see me walk across the background during his first video today. I then sit down at my desk, which is directly behind the camera, and you can see his reaction. If he thought it was hard keeping a straight face today, wait until I get to the store for various props with which to torture him. The iSight mic also picks up a lot of ambient sound, such as my Macintosh booting up.

Some of you know my intense dislike of being captured on film - particularly video - similar to Bigfoot, Elvis and most aliens. (All of whom, incidentally, are quite skilled at avoiding the camera except maybe Elvis who has been picked up on one too many convenience store security cameras as far as I'm concerned.) So having live filming right at my desk is uncomfortable enough. You can only imagine what it's like having Henry doing the filming.

And speaking of Henry, I received a snowblower update the other day. The snowblower was having technical difficulties, and for a moment my heart soared. But then Henry explained that he had it fixed. So it seems like winter is dead. In fact, State College may hit a record high temperature tomorrow. If you watch his video, you'll doubt hear me yelling from time to time, "What about the SNOWBLOWER Henry?!" I'll probably yell that at the end of the video, so he'll be less inclined to re-shoot.

Posted by Carl at 11:50 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I'm not sure why - and I work at a weather company - but apparently people are already releasing predictions for the 2007 Hurricane Season. It seems a little early to me, but I'm not an actual meteorologist (I just play one when I ghost write Henry's blog.)

Two predictions are out so far: Tropical Storm Risk, a U.K.-based group of insurers and forecasters are calling for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes including four "intense hurricanes." Dr. Gray's team from Colorado State University is calling for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes including three "Category 3 storms" or better. Both predictions are for "busier than normal" seasons.

I confess that I've been toying with the idea of going to Orlando next year. It will take that long for my money-printing device to be finished. It's possible these forecasters have gotten wind of this (so to speak) and have had their hands forced with regard to hurricane predictions. I'm not sure where the leak came from; anytime I visit Florida I'm required to call into the Governor's office so that they can make the appropriate contingency plans. When I last spoke to Jeb, he asked if I would consider coming in December, when even my presence is unlikely to attract a Category 5 storm. I said I would consider it if they mailed me some fresh O.J.

(I'm still waiting for the O.J.)

Posted by Carl at 1:21 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Today's IGAR graphic, courtesy AccuWeather.com:

Posted by Carl at 12:55 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

As Alert Reader Mark mentioned in his comment, State College is actually under the gun for some severe weather - maybe even a tornado or two. Just to explain how weird it gets at a weather company in this sort of situation, I asked Henry is we were going to get a tornado and, without missing a beat, he replied "I hope so!" Of course, that doesn't help me prepare a whole lot. Alert Garbage Chaser Tammy is on duty at home watching our uncollected trash for any signs of movement.

Here's a quick snap of the AccuWeather.com radar from 12:25pm today:

The arrow show the movement of the storms, and the little boxes are 15 minute intervals. The letters/numbers are storm cell identifiers, and I'm at the star. We might see some fireworks in an hour or two. If Henry gets really excited I'll probably just head down to the basement.

Posted by Carl at 12:23 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The first Rock of the winter season seems to be headed to State College with a vengeance. AccuWeather.com has some news on this winter storm, and you can check in with my nemesis Henry for insights into winter weather beyond this storm. The first storm should leave a good swatch of snow from OK to MI (if you're "fortunate" enough to score in this regard takes lots of pictures!) as well as some "icy mix" in a line to the east. Everyone take care with the bad weather, drive slow (or not at all) and don't overdo it with the first shoveling of the year (this tends to be an issue with the first snowfall.)

The storm that may follow, on Monday, will be to our east and too far to make much of a difference. Alert Cashier Tammy, who may or may not hate to drive in winter weather, will be heaving a sigh of relief. How long will our snow drought hold up?

(I should explain, for both of my new readers, that the rock thing comes from "It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown" wherein Charlie goes door to door with his friends trick-or-treating, only to check his bag afterwards and find out that he was given a Rock. How Charles Schultz came up with the idea of adults passing out Rocks to kids will always amaze me, particularly in the day that he did (nowadays that's probably not that far-fetched.) I love snow, and yet live in State College, PA - a valley that often just misses getting snowed on. This phenomenon of being "just missed" by snow has been named "Getting a Rock.")

(If THAT doesn't clear it all up, I'm not sure what would.)

Posted by Carl at 9:40 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well, okay, not a whole lot but still it's pretty unusual.

WFTV.com reports here that snowflakes were spotted in Central Florida. Furthermore, the snowflakes were in the air at the time. Now this wasn't snowflakes like Northeast Snowflakes. We're talking about 1-2 flakes per cubic meter of air. (According to the National Weather Service, who employs dedicated and highly trained staff to measure this sort of thing.) Although snow shovels were not needed, some flakes were accused of hitting the ground before they melted. They were roundly mocked by the pavement upon contact, and withered quickly from embarrassment.

Whenever I hear about snow in Orlando I think of Disney World. This is due to two things: 1. Everything makes me think about Disney World and 2. During the Christmas Season Disney World pumps fake snow over Main Street. It's not quite the same as real snow, but you really don't want real snow falling while you're waiting in a line 200 people deep to ride Dumbo.

Cold weather in Orlando is pretty unusual too. The low was expected to drop into the 30s, although by this weekend the high will be back to 81. (30 degrees, incidentally, is the point at which native Floridians take the boards off the windows from hurricane season, break them up and set them on fire for warmth.)

I'm still banking on a brutal, snowy winter now that Alert Cashier Tammy is working Friday and Saturday nights. We'll see.

Posted by Carl at 10:50 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I don't know where I've been, but I came across this article about the difficulty of obtaining insurance for coastal residents in Maine. Not only was I surprised there were coastal residents in Maine, but I had no idea they had insurance problems. When you think of insurance problems for coastal residents, you think (well, I do) of Louisiana and Florida primarily.

(As an aside, having been to Bar Harbor, I do know that Maine has coastal areas, but it seemed at the time that they were 98.9% tourists.)

However, the thing that really struck me was that there are insurers for insurers. They're called "reinsurance companies." I suppose this should not come as any surprise, nor would it surprised me at this point if there were re-reinsurance companies, but I never really thought about it. Normally I do spend most of my waking hours thinking about insurance though. The article goes on to say that reinsurance companies have raised rates 300-400% in recent years. I suppose this explains why some insurance groups, like Allstate, have started dropping people.

Leave a comment if you have seen insurance rates skyrocket, if you live on the coast, if you live in Maine, or on the coast in Maine. And, if you live on the coast in Maine and have seen rates skyrocket leave a comment because I'll have to send you a fruit basket or something.

Posted by Carl at 9:29 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Someone wrote me today asking why I was AWOL from the blog. Actually, I'm paraphrasing but AWOL does stand for "Absent Without Official Leave" which describes not blogging perfecting. I'm not sure whom/where to petition to get Official Leave, but I imagine it's some sort of giant blogging committee located in Hoboken.

In any event, I've been blogged-out having recently designed and constructed a global warming blog, with the help of dedicated, talented brainy types too numerous to mention. (But hat tip to MT genius James Spears) Global Warming is a fascinating subject. I can blog all I want to about Global Warming here because this is my own, private, not-connected-to-any-weather-company, no-one-reads blog. In fact, I can even say "Global Warming, Schmarming" and I don't have to get that cleared by anyone anywhere, particularly Official Types in Hoboken.

But Laura is doing an admirable job on a very difficult topic, so stop by and say hello. Bonus points for using my name, although if she replies and says "Who?" don't, you know, put much stock in that she's just kidding. Really.

The pain of working on another blog has faded, some, and I think I might be able to get back to writing. I'm going to watch the stats, though, and if all of you have found something better to do, like scour the web for downloadable pdf coloring pages of elk and deer and print them out and color them in, well then I may retire. The only possible caveat is the winter; if we get a mild winter that doesn't make much of a difference, but if we were to have a severe apocalyptic winter it would be nice to blog about all of that snow. Normally I would say we have a snowball's you know in you know of having an actual winter. But this winter is different, because Alert Future Cashier Tammy may have to drive every weekend to Target which means snow over the entire northeast each Friday and Saturday.

Speaking of Target, Alert Applicant Tammy passed her drug test with flying colors. Orientation starts tomorrow, wherein she learn things like "How to take down an irate Christmas Shopper with only your bare hands and a DVD of Santa Clause 2 which coincidentally is on sale for $12.99 this week only."

Finally, I close with a Global Warming story that may not be featured on any weather blogs that you frequent. Via Drudge I see that the U.N. has created a booklet called "Tore and the Town on Thin Ice" which you can find as a PDF here. My favorite two-page spread would have to be this:

Personally, I'm looking forward to future titles in the series, such as "Tore and the Town of Skin Cancer Zombies Living Under the Ginormous Ozone Hole" and "Tore and the Meteorologist Who Lived Next Door with a Snow Blower." Scary stuff.

Posted by Carl at 4:03 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Colorado got hit by a good bit of snow today. Here's the latest from AccuWeather, and an AP article. A Google search turned up a great cam page for Colorado here - here's a current shot (as of this posting) of Cripple Creek:

Posted by Carl at 3:50 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Well it depends partially on who you believe, and partially on the interpretation of "Replay Hazy Try Again."

The National Weather Service is suggesting an above-average winter: "The result, forecasters said, should be a winter marked by above-normal temperatures, though perhaps not as mild as last year’s very warm winter." (Here's a link to NOAA's winter forecast.)

AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi is saying a warm start but a cold January and February: "The winter in the Northeast and Midwest is expected to begin mild before turning significantly colder in January and February as cold air pours down from Canada."

Of course all of this really hinges on Henry's snowblower. Right now he hasn't gotten his fuel line fixed, so it's possible we could see a few early snowfalls. Unless he went out and fixed it on the sly... hmmm.

Posted by Carl at 10:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

This interesting tree ring article comes from the National Geographic. Apparently researchers from the University of Tennessee in Knoxville have determined that rain from hurricanes contains a special type of oxygen isotope. You can read the article to better understand why that is; I tried to figure it out and all I came up with was that hurricanes spin so powerfully that they lose a lot of things, like their wallets, loose change, combs, and sometimes even their car keys. This relates to the whole oxygen thing in some way.

In any event, these special oxygen isotopes, code named "18" fall out of the storm early and get sucked up into Conifers. The Conifers use the 18 to create new cellulose, which makes them look really bad in that bathing suit.

So what's the net effect here? Researchers can now collect tree ring data and examine it for this special oxygen and determine how many hurricanes struck that area, going back 220 years. This is huge because our current technological hurricane record goes back 60 years, and a little more than that based on newspaper clippings, ship's logs and elves. Being able to collect more of this data may give us an idea of what hurricane intensity was like in the past, and from there we can draw conclusions about how global warming is in fact going to kill us all. Or something.

And finally, I would be remiss if I didn't point out the nominee for The Best Name of a NOAA Employee: Christopher Landsea.

Update: The Weather Guys do a great job of explaining this, although they don't mention elves.

Posted by Carl at 9:44 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The tropics have gotten busy, although the U.S. coast remains relatively safe. Florence is on track to brush Canada. Gordon graduated to hurricane status but is widely expected to curve out into the vast unknown of the Atlantic, a harm to no one except the secret base of Atlanteans out there.

A storm with some potential, if you would call it that, is TD 8. It's waaaaay out there but should strengthen as early as today into Tropical Storm (dramatic music) Helene. To me, Helene sounds like a formidable name, like a Katrina or Carol, but then again I thought Fat Momma would be gone in two shows so you know what I know. Models take the storm west for at least five days without recurving, so it may be one to watch.

If feels, though, as if the hurricane season is over. The weather in Happy Valley is overcast, damp and very cool, and it feels like late autumn. I even heard Henry was dusting off the snow blower.

Posted by Carl at 9:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

TD7 has been declared by the NHC, you can find a position graphic here from AccuWeather.com. Most models have the storm curving much like Florence - although at least one takes it close to Bermuda this weekend. (Model run.)

It's thought that this storm could be over its depression by Monday and would become Tropical Storm Gordon.

Posted by Carl at 1:15 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

You can see AccuWeather.com's own Henry Margusity give all of the gory details on the coming deluge for State College on the AcccuWeather.com video player. All you need to do is the following (preferably while NOT chewing gum; I don't want anyone to get hurt.)

1. Go to AccuWeather.com.
2. Click on the "Launch Video Player" button on the left side, under "Weather Videos".
3. Click on the "Tropical Storm Ernesto" category on the right side of the player.
4. Click on "Ernesto Flood Potential" - the first video in the left in the upper right.

If, for some reason, this doesn't work - fully blame Henry's snowblower.

Posted by Carl at 3:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Rain Bands!
Heavy Rain Bands!
Outer Rain Bands!
Leading Rain Bands!
Strong Rain Bands!
Very Organized Rain Bands!
Ominous Rain Bands!

(Sorry, a little tired of this storm. How did I make it through 2005?)

Posted by Carl at 10:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

U.S. and French researchers are working together on new effort to better track and diagnose hurricane development in the Atlantic. I'm not making that up. As you know, France has suffered from at least a dozen different tropical storms/hurricanes in the last two decades, with Hurricane Pierre bringing widespread flooding to the Bordeaux area in '89. Okay, that part I made up.

The Balloon Project involves dropping almost 300 "instrument packages" over parts of Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. I'm not making that up. After the balloons are launched they will drift from Africa towards the Caribbean at heights of 65,000-70,000 feet, where hurricanes often hide before diving down into the water and spinning towards land. Apparently twice each day these balloons will release a small instrument package, complete with a monkey wearing a parachute. As the monkey falls through the atmosphere the instrument will gather statistics like temperature, pressure, wind speed, and how loudly and often the monkey yells "Ahhhhhhhhhh I'm going to diiiiieeeeeee!" (In monkey-talk, of course.)

The article really doesn't explain what happens to the monkey after it pulls its chute. I'm going to theorize here that the monkey will drift slowly to the water, and then it will have to do the backstroke. Or, the instrument package has a little beacon that tells the French where they need to go to pick up the monkey.

It's thought that these balloons will give scientists a new insight into tropical weather formation in a part of the world that it is difficult to fly planes into, mostly because it's on the other side of the Atlantic and the French don't have any airplanes.

If the experiment is a success, the next step will be to upgrade from Monkeys to Clowns, and then (if funding doesn't dry up) - Mimes.

Posted by Carl at 7:33 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The National Weather Service has issued a Wormmucking Watch for the entire Carl Schaad Area beginning Friday afternoon and lasting until the first freeze. As you know, a wormmucking watch is:

This is expected to be one of the best Wormmucking events of the last 30 years - with 4-6" inches of rain expected, and up to 10" possible in Local Areas. (These are areas that you find yourself in, usually while driving.) I may even go get a new pair of boots in order to properly celebrate the occasion. Nothing drives those worms out of the ground like 10" of water. Nothing drives the remaining grass roots out of my desert-like lawn like 10" of water too. I know this because as a kid I often marveled at the destructive power of water by taking a hose, putting my thumb over part of the nozzle, and using the jet to erode parts of my parent's lawn. I would pretend to be a huge 1000' foot giant towering over the Grand Canyon. You know, just like every young lad did.

Everyone stay safe this wet and dreary weekend in the east. Well, stay safe if you're not in the east too. You know what I mean.

Posted by Carl at 7:16 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

As mentioned earlier it appears that we're going to get a good soaking this weekend from Ernesto. There are three reasons this is very likely to happen:

1. PSU Move-In Day occurs this weekend
2. PSU Football Opener
3. Carl's previous whining about his dry-as-dust lawn

You always need to be careful about whining over a dry-as-dust lawn, as this AccuWeather.com graphic shows:

Yup, that's 6-8" of rain. Now my lawn will wash away completely, which will probably clog the storm drain at the end of the street. That's bad because my house is at the end of the street, right next to the storm drain...

On a somewhat related note, there are few things more pitiful, in my opinion, than watching a reporter covering a tropical threat with absolutely nothing happening. I tuned into the Weather Channel at midnight, and there was Mike Bettis, I believe, standing there reporting in his rain gear. About all you could say was that it was dangerously dark. I mean, it was really dark, in a sort of ominous-it's-midnight kind of dark. And, his rain gear looked damp, although the camera person may have thrown a cup of water on him before they went live.

Posted by Carl at 12:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The NHC has an amazing track for Ernesto, which differs greatly from AccuWeather's. Below is the NHC track:

On the surface, this may seem like a Silly Storm Track. It would seem silly, because it puts the storm (as a tropical depression) pretty much in State College, Pennsylvania at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday. I mean, what self-respecting storm would go to State College, Pennsylvania?

However this weekend is special, for three reasons:

1. It's the Labor Day Holiday Weekend
2. It's "Move-In Day" - the day Penn State students descend on Happy Valley for the start of classes
3. And finally, in what can only be called a "Brilliant Planning Stratagem" it is also the Nittany Lions opening football game at - you guessed it - 3:30 p.m.

All of these things together make it almost certain that a storm would gravitate this way. However, AccuWeather.com's track is a bit different:

So there you have it - State College, PA or Cape Hatteras, NC. Whose forecast will reign supreme?

Posted by Carl at 9:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

First I want to let everyone know up front that I can not type "almanac" without a great deal of effort. Whenever I have to type that word it almost always ends up "alamanac." So, you were warned.

The FA (Farmers' Alamanac Almanac) is predicting a much colder than normal winter from "coast to coast." I happen to have an advance copy of the Farmer's Alamanc Almanac (sigh) and I have to say that cold will be the least of our worries. Not only is it expected to be colder than normal, which will cause the usual winter headaches of high fuel costs and snowy weather, but there's also expected to be an increase in: Nor'easters, Bigfoots (Bigfeet), Alien Abductions (particularly in the Southeast), Earthquakes and - most disturbing of all - political attack ads.

But at least now you have some advance warning. Take the usual precautions - buy lots of dried goods and have a fully stocked pantry, get plywood to board up your windows, make sure your friends and family have your cell number in case you "disappear" and above all, unplug the TV and put it on the porch until November 8.

(You may want to dress it in a coat before doing so - it's expected to be cold.)

Posted by Carl at 3:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Not yet, but Ernesto seems to be heading towards a certain Louisiana City:

You can find these maps in more detail here:
AccuWeather | NHC | SFWMD

AccuWeather appears to be taking Ernesto west of New Orleans, but the NHC and many of the models are lining up with the Big Easy. Of course this is a nightmare scenario - even if the levees hold, the rain, storm surge and possible tornadoes would cause havoc with the FEMA trailers and all of the debris that sill exists in areas hit by Katrina last year. I'm not in the office today (it IS Saturday, after all) so I'm curious what the meteorology is behind AccuWeather's graphic which has the storm as a "3" in the Gulf and a "2" at landfall. There's usually weakening of these storms at landfall, but there's an awful lot of warm Gulf water in between the two. I'll have to check on Monday.

Although it's not time to panic, it probably will be soon. Get all of your panic preparations ready so that when the time to panic comes, you'll be ready to go.

UPDATE: Models and the NHC continue to shift around, moving generally east. I won't be able to post updated maps with every model run, so stay tuned to the AccuWeather hurricane center and other sources.

Posted by Carl at 2:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Tropical Storm Ernesto has arrived. Ernesto was born at 5pm, near Latitude 14.3 North and Longitude 67.6 West which is about 300 miles SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico and 660 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica. Ernesto is 29.65 inches in central pressure and weighs in at Extremely Very Heavy. The NHC announced Ernesto's birth while the author was eating a Tour of Italy at the Olive Garden that was entirely too large for one human being, no matter how hungry, to eat. The author did, however, give it his best shot.

The name Ernesto is apparently the "Italian, Spanish and Portuguese form" of Ernest. The name Ernest is derived from the Germanic eornost meaning "seriousness". (See also earnest.) The name was used in the title of a play and movie, "The Importance of Being Earnest," which I haven't seen but after some research I gather that it's about someone named Earnest and how important it is for them to be... so.

Ernesto appears to be on trajectory for mischief. Here's a map roundup:

You can find these maps in more detail here:
AccuWeather | NHC | SFWMD

Hopefully we've all learned our lesson and home owners in the Gulf have reinforced their structures with Ubiquitous* Alacrity**. I've been told that stuff is amazingly strong - we actually considered getting Alacrity countertops for our kitchen at one point, but the nice ones are really expensive.

So where does Ernesto end up? The models, NHC and AccuWeather seem to agree that it's in the middle of the Gulf by Wed/Thur a.m. Based on it's track up to that point, I would guess somewhere in Houston. But...that's only a guess. Even Joe Bastardi isn't saying yet. Stay tuned...

*For Angie.

**For Sara. I'm pretty sure I used that right. Some of these words are tricky!

Posted by Carl at 8:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

I've received thousands of emails today from concerned residents of the Caribbean thanking me for my previous Chris post. I think it was about fourteen minutes after my post that Chris completely fell apart. Personally I must say that I'm more than happy to destroy these storms. I'm sure this must frustrate the JM to no end, but you do what you have to do.

AccuWeather has changed their track and intensity:

The track is now farther south, matching what the NHC has. The strength is also considerably lessened; AccuWeather has a tropical storm, and the NHC has gone down again to a Tropical Depression.

I think it still bears watching in the Gulf. Floridians can let their pets and elders out of the home again.

Posted by Carl at 9:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

While we're all sweltering here, South Africa is enjoying a little snow:

It snowed in Johannesburg, South Africa for the first time in 25 years (the last snow was September 11, 1981).

Global Warming? Everyone turn off their A/C today to, you know, help out...

Posted by Carl at 9:35 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I was thinking about different types of sweat (i.e. perspiration) because it's hard not to think of something you're soaked in. For example, try not to think of apple sauce after being soaked in it. Or, try not to think of kerosene after falling into a vat of it. You see what I mean...

I was drenched in sweat as I was helping someone move furniture tonight. It was heavy work, particularly since I'm not the Atlas type, and it was very warm out. The AccuWeather.com RealFeel™ temperature was actually listed as 219 (celcius). Because of the exertion, the heat, and the well-known, infamous Schaad Sweat Gene I was thoroughly soaked. I looked like I had fallen overboard and missed the dinghy*. As I drove home, all icky-like, I thought about...well, being all icky-like. But then I realized I could be all icky-like because I went and played golf**, or was standing in line at Animal Kingdom waiting to go on the Kilimanjaro Safari, or I could could be all icky-like because I took the time to help a stranger. I figured of all of the reasons to be icky-like, that was probably the best. I encourage everyone to try it out. (Well, the helping thing, not necessarily the icky thing, unless they go hand-in-hand.)

*Okay, this entire post was written just to see if I could get the word dinghy in there. Do you have a favorite word you'd like to see in a post? Leave a comment! Naughty words will be summarily deleted by your benevolent overlord. (Me.) (Stop laughing like that.)

**The author wishes to clarify that he does not actually play golf, know how to play golf, or really have any desire at the time to play golf. This is merely a literary tool of sorts, as the author supposes that people playing golf in weather like this quickly get all icky-like. No offense was intended in today's post towards people who like golf, who have friends and family who like golf, or O.J. Simpson. Thank you.

Posted by Carl at 9:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

I haven't had much to say on Beryl because I've been crazy busy with several top secret projects that I could tell you all about but then...well, you know. I noticed today that the USA Today Weather Guys talked about the name Beryl which is not the media onslaught I had expected when I tried to get my Beryl post in early (Beryl - best storm name ever?) but Doyle raises some interesting points I hadn't considered.

It looks like she's headed towards Cape Cod, which technically is in the northeast which is one of the areas that AccuWeather has stressed will be under the gun this year.

Posted by Carl at 2:01 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Probably not, but the NOGAPS model below is pretty interesting:

The T=144h means Time = 144 hours. 144 hours from now is about six days. The map was run at 12Z, Z being Zulu time. The eastern time zone is currently off Zulu by four hours, meaning that this map was run somewhere between midnight and 8 pm. (12Z should be 8 a.m. but I'm sure I'm doing something wrong in there. I can't even set the time on my VCR.

In any event, if you look at the run of the NOGAPS, you see something pop up out of no where and head for the northeast:

Obviously this would be a big ticket news item, but it's only one model, and the NOGAPS at that. (Remember to insert some joke here about the NOGAPS not being able to hit a barn, or forecast its way out of a paper bag, or something later.)

In the interest of not driving you crazy, the above tiny map only animates a few time. If you miss it, just reload the page...

Posted by Carl at 9:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Update here. I'm going to save my witty repartee until this evening, assuming it will continue to get its act together...

Posted by Carl at 12:43 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

That sounds really medical, sorry. "Carl, I'm afraid you have Possible Alberto. Use this model spray twice each day..."

I'm not a professional Model Interpreter, but it looks to me like Bigfoot IS in fact real and living in southern Texas. I mean, it looks to me like something is headed to Florida. Which is nice, since they need the rain, as long as it's a modest storm and not some monster. But the timing seems to be somewhere around the Monday-Tuesday frame, which wouldn't give this much of an opportunity to strengthen. Of course, stay glued to the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for the latest.

Posted by Carl at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

According to Chuck Watson of Kinetic Analysis Corp., a Savannah, Georgia risk assessment firm, New Orleans "is the U.S. city most likely to be struck by hurricane force winds during the 2006 storm season." Reuters has the article here. Apparently there's a 30% chance it will get hit by a hurricane, and a 10% chance of it being a category 3 or better. Watson worked with University of Central Florida statistics professor Mark Johnson.

They also have some things to say about oil disruption and some other top targets.

UPDATE: PDF of Oil Production Forecast here. Interesting in you're into that sort of thing.

Posted by Carl at 11:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The GFS, which is a computer weather model that stands for either "Global Forecast System" or "Gnome Fondness Syndrome," is showing some sort of Gulf of Mexico weather disturbance which may or may not be a tropical storm or may or may not be a hurricane and may or may not actually happen. Two things are showing up right now; one at 300 hours (~ May 29) headed for New Orleans/Mobile, and one at 330 hours (~ May 30, 31) headed for the Florida Panhandle. Now, before everyone panics and heads to Peoria it's still very early. So, we'll see. But thought you'd like a model heads up.

Keep an eye on the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for news and bulletins.

Posted by Carl at 6:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

AccuWeather has a great article and impact map on the website here. As you can see from the graphic, the Northeast coast (NY, MA, CT, RI,) and the Carolinas are labeled "Very High" risk, and the Texas coast and south Florida are labeled "High" risk. Additionally, AccuWeather is being very specific with a forecast of Six Hits, including five hurricanes (three major - category three or greater) and one tropical storm. The Atlantic Hurricane Season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, Russian Made Cold War Era Weather Machines notwithstanding.

Obviously a hit on the northeast coast in the area that AccuWeather has highlighted would be huge, particularly if it would be a category three or greater, which according to the odds is a good bet (six predicted hits, half of which would be cat 3+.) I think the message to take away here is that everyone should be prepared. If you live on the coast of the Florida panhandle (i.e. "Low" risk) that's no reason to skip buying your bottled water and tickets to Peoria this year.

Posted by Carl at 9:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

This is making the rounds on the web but I haven't been able to find any background info, such as when this occurred, where the video came from, why it was made or leaked to the public, if it's real, and so on. You really can't tell with the web anymore. Well, sometimes you can tell, like I KNOW I won a free iPod for roping this steer in this little flash ad and my iPod should arrive any day now. But with other stuff like this you can't tell.

Here's the animation. It's a flash movie, and shows the flight paths of FedEx aircraft running through and around severe weather as they attempt to deliver iPods to good little contest winners everywhere.

(In favor of this being real: Who in the world would fake something like this?
In favor of this being fake: 1. It looks an awful lot like ants harvesting for the winter, and 2. There's a great deal of activity on the map during the entire movie until the end, at which point there are no planes on the map. But perhaps FedEx doesn't fly 24/7.)

Posted by Carl at 11:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

(See, I take a few days off and there's too much news to cover.)

JB (AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi) recently spoke to a "room packed with energy executives" (now that sounds like a lively bunch) and predicted that one tropical storm and five hurricanes would hit the nation's coast between now and November (i.e. the entire "normal" hurricane season.) MarketWatch article here. Obviously the energy industry takes a great deal of interest in hurricane predictions, especially after last year. The oil industry is still missing about 22% of its normal production due to hurricane damage.

Posted by Carl at 10:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Scientists at the NHC have created simulations of the havoc a major hurricane - Katrina-sized, if you will - would do if it hit Miami. You can find the article here and some interesting Flash simulations here.

The NHC conducted these simulations for The Miami Herald, so it's natural that this would focus on Miami instead of, say, New York City. But really, if a category four monster hit any major city it would be devastating, as we saw with New Orleans. Geography can make things better or worse, but I think we can all agreed this would be Very Bad anywhere.

I know I'm a little warped, but one of the most interesting things in the article (well, to me) was that the director of Miami-Dade County's building department is named Charles Danger. Now THAT is a cool name. When asked about people who fail to evacuate in the face of a vicious hurricane, who live in extremely tall apartment buildings, he said:

"They will be blown out and you will never find them."

(Given the windows broke and the wind caught them.) Pretty chilling. But, when Danger speaks...

Posted by Carl at 9:34 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Environment Canada meteorologist Dave Phillips had some dire words about the upcoming hurricane season, which everyone is predicting to be a Cataclysm of Biblical Proportions, including Anderson Cooper. Phillips had this to say:

"It's like baking a souffle. A lot of things have to come together and if someone slams the door, it won't rise."

I'm pretty sure that's the last word on the approaching hurricane season. So, bring it on.

Posted by Carl at 9:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I know, I know, this isn't the entire machine. But you have no idea what I went through just to get this photo! It looks a little old - maybe even Cold War Era - but it appears to be one of the dials on the Russian Made Weather Machine. You can see from the photo that the Weather Machine, which as we all know is currently employed by the Japanese Mafia, appears to have several settings, including "La Niña," "Very Dry" and "Florida Cat 6." There's no way to know if there are other dials, what settings they might have, etc. But this demonstrates that anyone in Florida should probably start preparing now for Hurricane Season. Preparation would include storing plywood, stocking up on bottled water and buying your one-way tickets to Peoria.

Right now I'm looking on eBay talking to my confidential sources about the manual to the Weather Machine. We'll see what I turn up.

UPDATE: Alert Reader Susan asks, "Why would a Russian-Made Weather Machine used by the Japanese Mafia have a dial in English (and a little Spanish?)" Well! I don't know what to say. This is a great point. I am DEFINITELY leaving negative feedback for JPNMAFSTOOGE114. I knew the new user icon was trouble but I always get sucked in with the free shipping.

Posted by Carl at 8:08 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Mala actually means "garland of flowers" in Bengali. Although, my Bengali is a little rusty. It definitely means either "garland of flowers" or "a dozen jelly donuts." One or the other.

AccuWeather has a nice sat shot and write up in our hurricane center.

Posted by Carl at 9:40 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Not quite the category 5 monster she was. Article here. Good news for the cyclone-weary in Australia.

Posted by Carl at 10:35 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Australia is having a tough season. Tropical Cyclone Monica, with winds gusting to 220 mph, is headed for Darwin. You can see the well-defined eye in this satellite snap:

Does anyone know if Australia has antagonized the Japanese Mafia lately? Or is the J.M. just warming up the machine?

Links:

BoM Track Map
CNN article on Monica.
ABCNews Online article about evacuations.
Find the latest via Google News here.
AccuWeather.com's Hurricane Center has info here.

Posted by Carl at 12:27 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Hurricane Wizard Dr. Gray sat down for an interview with NBC2 News in Orlando and answered some questions from viewers. He was stumped on the first question - what would happen if they ran out of Greek Letters in one season? Of course, I not only predicted this would happen but supplied the answer:

You can find the interview via this page.

(*Predictions courtesy my alter-ego.)

Posted by Carl at 9:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Apparently a routine review of weather data has caused hurricane forecasters to add a 28th storm to last season's total. If you can follow this (and I'm not sure I do,) forecasters were pouring over the data and detected a secret, previously unnoticed subtropical storm near the Azores back in October. The storm has been dubbed "Subtropical Storm Cherry Garcia®" after the Ben and Jerry's flavor of the same name.* No word yet on why this storm went undetected.

In addition, Emily's S.A.T. was adjusted and it turned out she was actually a category five storm for a brief period. This brings the number of category five storms last season to four, which is Completely Unreasonable, and makes Emily the only category five storm to form in July.

Article here.

*Okay, I made that up.

Posted by Carl at 10:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The Storm Prediction Center has issued another "high risk" of severe weather. This one covers parts of Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi. You can find the latest here. Everyone stay safe.

Posted by Carl at 5:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I can't believe it's Thursday already. I took the trash out today. This was big news because I had cleaned out the basement this past weekend and so had produced (as if by magic!) bags of trash. I won't say how many, but we've put our neighbors - nay, our entire development - to shame. In my defense I do have the "unlimited trash plan" and so I figure, Hey! Bonus Trash Hauling! (Being the conscientious trash patron I am, I did call before taking it all out there. You know, just to make sure.)

Tornado videos seem to be a dime a dozen this week. Here's another one. I never get tired of watching them. Just an amazing thing.

Speaking of tornadoes, the Storm Prediction center actually has an area of "High Risk" on their map. You can find the map here: Link to the map I'm talking about (you know, with the High Risk) A High Risk is very unusual and probably extremely bad news. But in addition to the High Risk, there's a fairly large moderate risk area as well. If you live in the midwest, and particularly in western Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma or eastern Iowa, MIssouri or Arkansas, make sure you have the radio on and all of your plans set in case of severe weather. But really, everyone in the midwest should be prepared. You can find severe watches and warnings here and radar here.

Everyone stay safe out there.

Posted by Carl at 1:06 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I found all of the State College snow, which has been missing all winter. It all apparently went to Mammoth Mountain, where they set a season snowfall record with something like 4 bazillion inches of snow. You can see their update on the main page of their website. I'm writing their Director of Snow now, and asking for my snow back. If anyone wants me to add their name to my petition just drop me a note. As if getting 4 bazillion inches in one season wasn't enough, they have to go and rub it in by letting people know they'll be open until July 4. July 4! That's just...just silly.

Posted by Carl at 4:10 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Two levees broke in Merced, California after heavy rains, flooding a trailer park. CNN has more here. Although the CNN article doesn't mention it, I seem to recall Gov. Schwarzenegger toured the state and talked about the levee situation. If anyone has any links to that drop me a note. I'll try to check on that later.

Update: Alert Reader Brent (thanks Brent!) sent the following links concerning the Governor and levees: http://www.news10.net/storyfull.asp?id=16514 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/pictures/LOA04D.htm

Posted by Carl at 2:08 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

And this school cam held up really well. Whoever manufactures this equipment should turn this into some sort of commercial.

Video available via KFVS 12. Scroll down on the home page for some other amazing videos.

Posted by Carl at 1:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Dr. William Gray, official Hurricane Knight™, has come out with his initial call on the upcoming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 (but we know better, don't we?)

Dr. Gray is calling for 17 named storms, nine of which will graduate to hurricane status. He went on to say that all nine will hit Florida in October. Okay I made that part up, put down the hammer, nails and boards Floridians. Actually he said that the hurricane frenzy of previous years will calm down this year, due to some mysterious force known as "statistics."

You can read more about it here via CNN.

Posted by Carl at 1:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I know I should be grateful that we live in a weather-free, protected valley that buffs and rebuffs snow storms and severe weather. I know I should.

Posted by Carl at 4:14 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Western Australia didn't fare too badly, as Glenda missed major population areas. Glenda also missed some more bananas, which is good news for Australia (and banana lovers everywhere.)

Posted by Carl at 2:22 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Here's a short article on the New Orleans recovery, which quotes the Bush Administration's Gulf Coast recovery coordinator Don Powell as saying the complete recovery of the city could take five to 25 years.

No one apparently asked him the obvious follow-up question: how likely is it that New Orleans would be hit again in that time? And the obvious follow-up to that follow-up: Can New Orleans, as a city, survive another hit? That seems unlikely...

Posted by Carl at 1:25 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Glenda has battered and lashed the coast as the category 4 cyclone came ashore. This ABCNews Online article has some good guest-submitted photos and video. It appears (to my untrained layman's eye) that flooding will be the biggest concern. You can find updates on AccuWeather's site here. The BoM has a good forecast track feature and updates here.

Posted by Carl at 2:28 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Doing what tornadoes do: being naughty, and flinging debris here and there. This was from an F3 tornado back on March 12 at Bentonville, Ark. Here's the link. I can't play it because it's from the FeedRoom and "optimized" not to work on Macs.

Posted by Carl at 6:19 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

You can find a run-down by the Australian BoM here. Gusts are expected to reach 265 kph (164 mph) when the eye hits.

I'm not very familiar with Australia, but this doesn't look like the kind of place that you want a hurricane running ashore. (Link to FlashEarth map.)

Posted by Carl at 2:17 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A little bird told me that you could find all of the TIME Magazine covers on their site. You can also find article snippets and other goodies. Above are two covers of the magazine dealing with the weather. And here are the excerpts from the cover stories:

January 31, 1977 Why had the rain turned white? Startled millionaires wintering in their baronial mansions in West Palm Beach, Fla., peered closer last week at the miracle that was falling from the skies and discovered-could it be?-yes, the substance was snow, the first ever reported there. Since mid-November, pedestrians in Dallas, unaccustomed to such hazards, have been slipping on sleet-slicked sidewalks. Meanwhile, a series of blizzards has smothered Buffalo this winter with an astonishing 126.6 in. of snow. From the Dakotas and Minnesota, across the icy Great Lakes of the Middle West and down the...

April 3, 2006 Polar Ice Caps Are Melting Faster Than Ever... More And More Land Is Being Devastated By Drought... Rising Waters Are Drowning Low-Lying Communities... By Any Measure, Earth Is At ... The Tipping Point

Now I am NOT trying to say anything. Not at all. It's just when I woke up this morning I wanted to use the word "juxtaposition" and when this opportunity came up - well, I seized it. I think this is a cool juxtaposition. There, I can cross that off my list for today.

Posted by Carl at 12:05 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

NOT Glinda, the good witch, but Glenda, the bad cyclone. She's headed for "Oz" if I can extend my bit of irony. (Why people call Australia "Oz" is beyond me. I get the "Aus" and "Oz" sounding similar thing, but it still strike me as a little weird.)

Here's a story on the cyclone with gusts of 235km/h (146mph) and pushing cat five status. Keep in mind that storms are graded a bit differently in the south Pacific by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Wind gusts are used instead of sustained speeds, and the numbers for each category are a bit lower.

Posted by Carl at 8:24 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Alert Reader KRK sent in this URL on the German Tornado, which leads to an article that is in German. But she also provided this translation:

"On Monday evening a tornado in Hamburg cost two people their lives, and left masses powerless and in devastation. According to the police and firefighters, the tornado moved through Hamburg shortly after 7 PM. At a construction site in the Harburg district three to four cranes fell in a row on the building. The crane operators were still sitting in two of the cranes, and fell to their deaths and were lost."

Posted by Carl at 2:21 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A so-called "funnel cloud" went after some inflatible playground equipment, complete with kindergarteners, at Central Fellowship Christian Academy in central Georgia on Friday. (What's with the tornadoes all of a sudden?) The equipment apparently weighs 800 pounds and was staked to the ground. It traveled the length of two football fields (I assume that's 200 yards.)

It sounds like those hurt are doing okay, although one child was admitted. Article here.

Posted by Carl at 12:02 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Two people were killed in Hamburg, Germany by a rare tornado. Reuters has the oddly-worded article here. I say "oddly-worded" because it's not clear if two people died or four people. The way I read it - four people died; two in Hamburg and two in Harburg. But is that Harburg a typo? If so then two people died. It's early in the story cycle; I'm sure this will be cleared up by later this evening, and I'll post an update.

UPDATE 1: I suspect that Harburg is a part of Hamburg, which means that the two people killed in Hamburg are the same two people killed in Harburg, which would make everything make sense. I think. I tried a few Google searches (don't really have time right now) and everything is in German, and all I know in German is Vie Gehts!

Posted by Carl at 2:04 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

I missed this, primarily because of the word "Early" which makes me break out in hives. But Joe was on the CBS Early Show this past week talking about his hurricane forecast. Did anyone see it or TIVO it? Just curious. He was quoted as saying: